Florida Weather

[TheHurricaneGod]

miss after miss after miss in Davie, and go figure. a storm just to my east by 2 miles right now. and the wet season basically ends after today.

[jlauderdal]

miss after miss after miss in Davie, and go figure. a storm just to my east by 2 miles right now. and the wet season basically ends after today.

We just had over 2 inches, it looks like there is a low sitting over SE Florida towards the lake. We are in the "eye" currently

[canes92]

Feels like FL fall.

[HurricaneBelle]

65 in Tampa this morning (also at my house), the lowest temp since April 19.

[chaser1]

65 in Tampa this morning (also at my house), the lowest temp since April 19.

Loving the milder air!!

[TheHurricaneGod]

Dry as a bone on the latest GFS. Slightly more rain on the euro. Both models agree on a strong-ish cold front next thursday.

[HurricaneBelle]

Dry as a bone on the latest GFS. Slightly more rain on the euro. Both models agree on a strong-ish cold front next thursday.

Yep, looking like highs in the low-mid 70s for Central Florida, and lows in the 50s. Bring it on!

[chaser1]

Its going to be glorious weather and temperatures just in time for Halloween! The best part is that it looks like the cool temperatures will stick around for a few nights. As for Central Florida forecasted to into the low/mid 50's, the trend suggests possibly lower. Upper 40's perhaps? I may be asking for too much though

[TheHurricaneGod]

It's now looking like an even stronger cold front for Mon-Tue.

Temperatures possibly falling into the low-mid 40s around lake O unless you're in the Pahokee microclimate then it'll be 55. even U30s possible on the 6z euro!

[SFLcane]

It's now looking like an even stronger cold front for Mon-Tue.

Temperatures possibly falling into the low-mid 40s around lake O unless you're in the Pahokee microclimate then it'll be 55. even U30s possible on the 6z euro!

Euro models suffers from typical cold bias 30's and even 40's are not welcomed in SFL especially when one gets up at 6am to head to work. For now it looks like mid to upper 50's best to side with NBM.

[gatorcane]

Overnight Euro and GFS are coming in a couple of degrees colder for this event with upper 30s even down into SW Florida (Euro has 38 Ft Myers) and even SE Florida gets chilly with the Euro showing 45 for Miami. Quite a front for sure even if it were the middle of winter.

[boca]

Overnight Euro and GFS are coming in a couple of degrees colder for this event with upper 30s even down into SW Florida (Euro has 38 Ft Myers) and even SE Florida gets chilly with the Euro showing 45 for Miami. Quite a front for sure even if it were the middle of winter.

I learned from past experiences with these cold fronts that the temperatures they are predicting never really materialize. I think the lows will drop into the mid 50s here on the SE Florida area.When growing up in the 70s and 80s we had many nights were temps would get into the 30s and 40s,but not that much anymore due to the change in our climate.

[chaser1]

Overnight Euro and GFS are coming in a couple of degrees colder for this event with upper 30s even down into SW Florida (Euro has 38 Ft Myers) and even SE Florida gets chilly with the Euro showing 45 for Miami. Quite a front for sure even if it were the middle of winter.

I learned from past experiences with these cold fronts that the temperatures they are predicting never really materialize. I think the lows will drop into the mid 50s here on the SE Florida area.When growing up in the 70s and 80s we had many nights were temps would get into the 30s and 40s,but not that much anymore due to the change in our climate.

That seems very true, Boca. In fact, I'm trying to recall how many times - if any, that SE Florida temps even got down to the 40's last year (excluding your far west farming areas or north of Lake O)? Anyone know if the Kendall area (SW Miami) saw any nights last year dipping into the 40's?

[boca]

The lowest temp we had last winter was 52 and they are forecasting a low of 47 I personally don’t believe it.

[chaser1]

I think 47 sounds pretty solid for your area. If it does drop to 47 for the Boca/ Palm Beach area, it's pretty wild that an early to mid November cold front could result in a colder temperature than any date from all of last Fall or Winter!

[LarryWx]

I’m not in FL, but feel I am close enough (Savannah) to post ITT since there’s no active thread for the SE as a whole. Hopefully y’all don’t mind as I don’t have a home.

The last few NWS forecasts for here (KSAV) have been for a low of 30F on 11/11. Per model avg being 32, I’m leaning closer to 32 but 30 is obviously possible. If we get a 32, it would be the earliest freeze since 2010!

[psyclone]

This cold coming in is the real deal. Good thing it's early November otherwise we'd drive the freeze line into south florida. Very impressive for this time of year. The good news is the brevity. 2 cold days and a few cold nights and then we rebound.

[Abdullah]

Maybe Boca Raton never got to the 40s, but Miami definitely did. See January 25, 2025.

Now that the day is done, we can now evaluate what has been the coldest night in South Florida so far this winter (and it will probably remain that way). This morning also stands as the coldest South Florida has gotten since the cold snap of January 2023, where the thermometer dipped to 44°F at Miami International Airport.

Officially, the nighttime recorded low temperature occurred at 6:57 AM and was marked as 47°F.
This makes the forecast dead on. Once again a big congratulations to the NWS for getting this one right.


https://i.imgur.com/2Xa9n8t.png

This annual low runs slightly above the typical low of the previous ten years before this: 45°F
While it's not an exceptionally rare mark to reach, it still is notable.

Coming up ahead, we return to temperatures slightly below climatological norms, but slightly trending upward. By the end of the week (and the end of January), these temperatures are likely to be above average. A welcome break from the cold.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3119600

Link to quoted reply

In fact, there were 3 such days, all in January, where Miami International Airport reported a minimum temperature in the 40s.

[Abdullah]

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KMIA NOVEMBER OVERVIEW

The total number of days that the daily minimum temperature has been at 59 degrees Fahrenheit or lower in the month of November:

16 total days over the past ten winters (2015 to 2024)
89 total days over the past thirty winters (1995 to 2024)
492 total days over the past ninety-nine winters, since the unbroken record began (1926 to 2024)

The average number of days that the daily minimum temperature has been at 59 degrees Fahrenheit or lower:

2 days per year over the past ten winters (2015 to 2024)
3 days per year over the past thirty winters (1995 to 2024)
5 days per year over the past ninety-nine winters, since the unbroken record began (1926 to 2024)

The percentage of days that the daily minimum temperature has been at 59 degrees Fahrenheit or lower:

5% of days over the past ten winters (2015 to 2024)
10% of days over the past thirty winters (1995 to 2024)
17% of days over the past ninety-nine winters, since the unbroken record began (1926 to 2024)

The total number of days that the daily minimum temperature has been at 49 degrees Fahrenheit or lower:

0 total days over the past ten winters (2015 to 2024)
1 total days over the past thirty winters (1995 to 2024)
66 total days over the past ninety-nine winters, since the unbroken record began (1926 to 2024)

The average number of days that the daily minimum temperature has been at 49 degrees Fahrenheit or lower:

0 days per year over the past ten winters (2015 to 2024)
0 days per year over the past thirty winters (1995 to 2024)
1 days per year over the past ninety-nine winters, since the unbroken record began (1926 to 2024)

The percentage of days that the daily minimum temperature has been at 49 degrees Fahrenheit or lower:

0% of days over the past ten winters (2015 to 2024)
0% of days over the past thirty winters (1995 to 2024)
2% of days over the past ninety-nine winters, since the unbroken record began (1926 to 2024)

---

All in all, if what is projected occurs, it will be an extraordinary event as the thermometer goes below 50 degrees Fahrenheit on the morning of Tuesday, November 11. The last time this occurred on a November day was in November 22, 2006, when the temperature reached 45 degrees Fahrenheit.

That was the only occurrence of this phenomenon in the previous 40 years. Before that, it happened in 1984. However, it once was quite commonplace, and looking at the overall climatological record in the last century, one could expect it to have been an annual event.

[chaser1]

I’m not in FL, but feel I am close enough (Savannah) to post ITT since there’s no active thread for the SE as a whole. Hopefully y’all don’t mind as I don’t have a home.

The last few NWS forecasts for here (KSAV) have been for a low of 30F on 11/11. Per model avg being 32, I’m leaning closer to 32 but 30 is obviously possible. If we get a 32, it would be the earliest freeze since 2010!

You kidding Larry? Heck, most of the time people are peeling off and leaving Florida. We'll happily merge S.E. Georgia into our mix! In fact if I'm not mistaken, the JAX NWS Office region covers a good part of S. Georgia as it is Bottom line though, the fact that its been nearly 15 years since Savannah last flirted with such low temperatures further emphasizes just how uncommon this early Arctic surge will be. Psyclone (as stated below) ain't kidding about how this same type of deep trough would likely throw low temps into the 30's deep into South Florida if it were January and a solid Winter snowpack were in place for much of the Midwest & Northeast CONUS.