EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[Chacor]

Well, if it's still moving fairly slowly and with the SHIPS model suggesting TS winds are possible before landfall, I won't be surprised if we do get a watch.

[JonathanBelles]

Well, if it's still moving fairly slowly and with the SHIPS model suggesting TS winds are possible before landfall, I won't be surprised if we do get a watch.

Thats what I was thinking, but im not a met.

[Category 5]

Well, if it's still moving fairly slowly and with the SHIPS model suggesting TS winds are possible before landfall, I won't be surprised if we do get a watch.

I tend to agree with you there.

[CrazyC83]

They may be forecasting strengthening to 35 kt in the next little while, which would almost certainly mean a tropical storm warning would be issued (to be on the safe side).

My guess:

TS warning - Coast of Costa Rica

TS watch - Coast of Nicaragua, possibly El Salvador if a turn to the northwest is expected

[Chacor]

... It's a good thing that land's in the way, because looking at the SHIPS RI index...

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.2 times the sample mean(12.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 8.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

[CrazyC83]

... It's a good thing that land's in the way, because looking at the SHIPS RI index...

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.2 times the sample mean(12.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 8.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

With those numbers, definitely they should throw the warnings immediately even if they initialize at 25 kt close to land.

[Derek Ortt]

you CANNOT overwarn.

We have seen what happens in the Keys due to overwarning. Nobody evacuated for Wilma, a CATEGORY 3!

I would play it safe and wait for morning. In reality, one only needs 9-12 hours advance warning for a TS anyways

[Chacor]

... A lot of rain from this system.

Code: Select all

058
TCCA23 KNHC 290020
STDWCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED MAY 28 2008
 
 
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...E PAC LOW
 
                                             MAX RAINFALL
  DATE/TIME      LOCATION       MOTION      MEAN      LAST
 -----------   ------------     ------     -------   -------
 28/0015 UTC   10.1N  86.5W     360/02     58.1 IN   19.1 IN
 
 
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
 
     DISTANCE          LEFT OF CENTER      RIGHT OF CENTER
   -------------      ---------------      ---------------
   0 TO 1 DEGREE      10.8 TO 18.6 IN       8.0 TO 15.8 IN
   1 TO 2 DEGREE       7.4 TO 12.5 IN      14.0 TO 19.1 IN
   2 TO 3 DEGREE       5.8 TO 11.4 IN       5.0 TO 17.3 IN
   3 TO 4 DEGREE       0.7 TO  8.0 IN       2.7 TO 10.4 IN
 
 
                        ...LEGEND...
 
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
                         (E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
                         DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)
 
DATE/TIME...             DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
                         COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT
 
LOCATION...              ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
                         POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
                         OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
 
MOTION...                ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
                         IN DEGREES AND KNOTS
 
MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
                         RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
                         ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART
 
LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
                         THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
                         RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE
 
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
                         DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
                         SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
                         INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
                         (1 IN = 25.4 MM)
 
 
 
NNNN


58.1 inches in 24 hours?!

[HURAKAN]

[Thundercloud]

I think that rainfall is a little overdone

[Derek Ortt]

that seems quite suspicious.

Mitch produced that much after sitting over the same area as a hurriane for 4-5 days. This one, while expected to move slow, not that slow. A model I ran as a test is not showing anything near 60 inches.

That said, 10 inches in this area can produce life threatening flooding and mudslides

[HURAKAN]

Convection developing near the center.

[Chacor]

280
WTPZ21 KNHC 290249
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.0N 86.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.7N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 290249
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
0300 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 86.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.0N 86.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.7N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Chacor]

703
WTPZ31 KNHC 290249
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR COSTA RICA...EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA AND ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...10.2 N...86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME



315
WTPZ41 KNHC 290250
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION TODAY. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THE
00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T2.0...
SUGGESTING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER THIN...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO A FEW BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH ONE
SMALL BAND HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT... SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/3.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY...WITH A BEND TO
THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHIN THE GYRE AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE 12Z UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TAKING THE SYSTEM
INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF
THE COASTLINE RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK
ERRORS COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
LANDFALL.

WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. NEITHER THE
GFDL...HWRF...OR LGEM MODELS SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 10.2N 86.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 10.8N 86.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 12.0N 86.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 13.7N 87.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR COSTA RICA...EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA AND ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...10.2 N...86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[MGC]

There we are TD-1E....only moving at 3KTS, leaving some time to reach TS strength. The big threat will be the rain in the mountains.....MGC

[KatDaddy]

No doubt this is almost a TD if not already as its starting to show banding on the WNW side. As far as rainfall goes it is moving slow with abundant deep moisture wrapping into the S and SE side. Near 60"s no way but 10-15" and perhaps 18" would not be surprising.

[KatDaddy]

These posts occurred in the last few minutes as I was typing

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION TODAY. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THE
00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T2.0...
SUGGESTING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER THIN...CONFINED
MOSTLY TO A FEW BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH ONE
SMALL BAND HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT... SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/3.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY...WITH A BEND TO
THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHIN THE GYRE AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE 12Z UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TAKING THE SYSTEM
INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF
THE COASTLINE RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK
ERRORS COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
LANDFALL.

WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. NEITHER THE
GFDL...HWRF...OR LGEM MODELS SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 10.2N 86.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 10.8N 86.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 12.0N 86.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 13.7N 87.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME