Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[Extremeweatherguy]

The problem with the Euro is Bertha is still at 30N even at 168hrs, if it clears out quicker then ther eis a greater chance of heights building in behind it. There seems to be two options, the first is Bertha takes its sweet time getting out of the way like the 06z GFS and the 0z ECM and the weakness is still in place when this system comes along...or it gets out of the way so that by the time this system comes along a weak ridge has built back in and this outs the Caribbean Islands and also the east coast at greater risk.

I agree. I think the only thing that is really "likely" right now is that this system will take a track further south than Bertha did. Other than that, the exact final path is still a mystery. Will this system make it to Florida or the east coast, or will it reach the Bahamas and then do a classic cape verde curve out to sea? Time will tell...

[HURAKAN]

Latest.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS...

Hour 54: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054s.gif

Hour 78: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078s.gif

Hour 96: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096s.gif

Hour 114: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114s.gif

Hour 138: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138s.gif

Hour 168: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168s.gif

System slams the northern islands at Hour 174: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174s.gif

---Beyond hour 180 the model resolution is lower, so do not expect the storm to look as strong---

Hour 192: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192s.gif

Hour 216: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216s.gif

Hour 240: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240s.gif

Hour 264: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264s.gif

Hour 288: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288s.gif

Yet another strong low moves off Africa at Hour 300: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300s.gif

[HurricaneHunter914]

It doesn't really look like anything imo. The convection seems to have died.

[KWT]

GFS has our new wave developiong into a decent system:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

Problem is Bertha is still very much in the picture and so that makes the track very hard to have a clue about, would hate to be a forecaster if that came off!

Looks like its going to go pretty close to the Caribbean islands on this run.

[RL3AO]

Well. The models nailed Alma/Arthur mess and Bertha about a week out. What makes you think it can't hit Cristobal three days out?

[Wx_Warrior]

IMO, every season is highly interesting!

[KWT]

Indeed the thing that makes this wave interesting is that we do have general model support as well. I think the strength of Bertha is key to this system, the weaker it is by say 120hrs the less northward pull it will have.

The 12z gets this low much further west coming close to the bahamas and a US landfall in the deeper part of the run with Bertha being weaker, whilst on the 06z bertha was a monster which picked up the future system with ease.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, how long Bertha lingers (and her strength) as well as possible troughs will be key in this forecast. The 12z GFS run shows a trough moving in and turning the new system northward once it is in the Bahamas (pushing it towards the Carolinas and Northeast). If that trough is not there though or if it arrives early/late, then things could be very different. At the moment, I would say that everyone is potentially at risk with this storm down the line, and for now the best thing to do is just focus on the short-term developments (<5 days out), rather than worrying about the long-term impacts (since they are currently way too hard to get a handle on).

[KWT]

Yep the first thing to watch is development at all, the models did do well with Bertha but thats not to say they will nail every development, though Cape Verde systems are easier then those hybrid creatures we sometimes get.

[cycloneye]

CMC has a double header East of the Antilles.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, the CMC is very interesting. It has two systems east of the islands, Hurricane Bertha in the central Atlantic, and it also has a weak system near the panhandle of Florida.

[cycloneye]

UKMET joins the combo of models showing this.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 8.9N 33.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 13.07.2008 8.9N 33.6W WEAK

12UTC 13.07.2008 10.1N 34.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.07.2008 10.3N 36.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.07.2008 11.4N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.07.2008 11.9N 39.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.07.2008 12.4N 41.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.07.2008 12.8N 44.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.07.2008 13.5N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.07.2008 14.2N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.07.2008 14.9N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[blp]

That CMC image above has possibly 5 systems if you count the vorticity off Belize. That would be crazy.

[KWT]

Yep this has got a lot of model support to develop hasn't it, the CMC probably is overdoing it but I see no reason why the first wave can't do something given the model guidence and it looks a much greater threat to the Caribbean as well then Bertha ever was.

[KWT]

The thing is it does have some moderate convection on the wave axis. Remember Bertha was historic in how far east it formed, this wave will probably take a while longer to get organised if it does of course but there is an awful lot of support for it right now.

[Aric Dunn]

there is for sure some agreement.. i would say !!! its going to be interesting..

[HURAKAN]

The ITCZ looks healthy today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Floridians will be hoping the 12Z GFS is wrong, because it seems to suggest high pressure will try to build in between potential Cristobal and Bertha, and steer potential Cristobal to the West and West-Northwest.




Disclaimer: This is an unofficial and amateur opinion, and I'm clueless. Storm2K can't be help responsible for this, and doesn't endorse anything I say, so no panic buying of wood and generators at Lowes, Ace and Home Depot.

[KWT]

Yep does look very impressive with Bertha also in the picture as well. You can see the wave axis extend northwards of the ITCZ quite clearly on that image as well Hurakan.