Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

[TropicalWXMA]

CMC:


GFS:


CMC:


GFS:

[HURAKAN]

[ROCK]

looks like the low is trending a more westward solution in the latest GFS run, NOGAPS has followed suit. Let see if the Euro jumps tonight...

[MGC]

Very limited convection near the low centers tonight....dry air abounds. Little chance if any of development......MGC

[tailgater]

Conditions at 42003 as of
(2:50 am CDT)
0750 GMT on 05/21/2009: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 7.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.2 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): N ( 10 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1005.9 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.4 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 24.0 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 26.6 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 23.9 °C

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Nothing close to a tropical or subtropical storm but I have to say that it has improved.

[Evil Jeremy]

If this system continues on this track, I would not be surprised to see this Invested by the end of the week or early weekend.

[cycloneye]

You want a more closeup pic?

[Evil Jeremy]

So now there is a giant line of rain with this system that is hugging the Florida (east) coastline. As this system moves west, will it drag all that rain over (S)FL?

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters latest update=Low more organized

Gulf of Mexico low growing more organized


Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:51 PM GMT on May 21, 2009

The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly west-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 23.75 inches have been measured in Northern Florida at the Flagler County Fairgrounds over the past four days, and Daytona Beach has seen over 14 inches, forcing closure of numerous roads. Another 1 - 3 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should gradually subside Friday and the rains should diminish substantially on Saturday, when the center of the storm is expected to move ashore over Louisiana.

Latest visible satellite loops show that the circulation of the low has grown more circular and better defined, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build off the Gulf Coast of Florida on the low's east side. These thunderstorms are beginning to form spiral bands characteristic of a developing tropical depression. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the low is moving into an area of dry continental air, though, and this dry air will slow development. Wind shear is about 20 knots, which is low enough to allow development. While none of the computer models develop the storm, they generally predict the storm should move northwestwards towards Louisiana over the next two days, and the shear is lower to the north. The low is currently over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of about 27°C in the Loop Current, which is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average. SSTs of at least 26°C are typically needed to support a tropical storm, so I expect the low will continue to develop through Friday. By Friday night, the low will be approaching the Louisiana coast, and SSTs will cool to 26°C. Still, with wind shear expected to drop, this low has a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression before its expected landfall Saturday over Louisiana. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches can be expected.

[BigA]

This little guy certainly has a well-defined circulation, though still a paucity of convection. Won't be surprised to see it make a run at subtropical status in the next 48 hours.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not impressed but hey it's still May so it should be expected.
As I said several days ago a sub-tropical depression (maybe storm) is not out of the
question but anything else is extremely unlikely.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks to Bailey1777 for the link: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[Aric Dunn]

yeah has a much better appearance this morning ... lot of dry air but compared to the other day its moderated a lot and continues to so ..will see what happens.. interesting to note the convection is trying to build closer to the center.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

To my untrained eye it looks like its maybe taken a slight more
west-northerwestly track and just drifting. I know we all see things differently
but it really doesn't "look" that much better then yesterday. There
is still no deep convection around the "center" area. JMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[boca]

As this system moves farther west I'm wondering if that heavy band of rain over the Bahamas will shift west in tantem with this slow moving low causing more rain in S FL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Unimpressive, but it is trying to pop a couple of showers near and West of the center.