New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[lonelymike]

Looking at the GFS and the other models I don't think any of them are actually forming this wave...well the CMC and the but the GFS certainly doesn't.

Instead they seem to develop something further west, but there isn't anything really there right now.

For example the GFS has something in the Bahamas in just 72hrs, no chance is it our wave we are watching but something else, quite what I'm really not sure but I guess its coming from the sheared wave to the west which eventually lifts out from the ITCZ.

Wxman57...the 12z ECM doesn't develop this feature IMO...it develops something around 70W in 96hrs, which seems to be very quick indeed IMO, the GFS is even faster with that feature. I don't exactly how far it is to travel but I'd imagine its going to have to really rip across the Atlantic...possible but with a weak high aloft I'm doubting it to be honest?

Still should be interesting to see how it all plays out!

Yeah, the EC could be developing something ahead of it. The 850mb vorticity isn't in the right spot. But it does indicate a fairly weak Bermuda high to the north - an indication that if something was to develop then it may recurve east of the Caribbean and the U.S. The fact that none of the models is bullish on development may indicate that it'll struggle to develop, if it does at all. All the models certainly did see Bill as developing, and they were right. They were iffy with Ana, and it struggled then dissipated.

How much would the down phase of the MJO play in keeping this disturbance weak Wxman57? Or do you think MJO plays much of a role in forming storms?

[otowntiger]

Looks like both waves have simultaneouly gone POOF! 1st the convection died and now even the clouds are just about gone. NEXT!

And speaking of next there is a very large blob of convection about to exit Africa, but as it happens a lot, especially this year, lets see if it vanishes like a little puff of steam.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 0000 UTC...HURRICANE BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 67W OR
ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SW OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 600
MILES...970 KM...ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NNW
NEAR 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 110 KT. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OBSERVED IN
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE CENTER OF BILL...WITH MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDING OUT TO 150 NM...WITHIN 200 NM IN A RAINBAND
TO THE NE OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE DUE TO A LAYER OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS RELOCATED FARTHER W THAN ITS CURRENT MOTION IMPLIES IN
ORDER TO ALIGN WITH A 1010 MB LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR
12N32W NOTED IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 32W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N13W 11N23W 13N31W 9N45W
9N61W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING THE AFRICA COAST FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 10W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-44W...AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE MEXICO
COAST EXTENDING FROM 17N93W TO 24N96W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N104W AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WRN GULF FROM 21N-26N
W OF 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE
NRN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-96W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA
EXTENDING ACROSS NW MISSISSIPPI...N LOUISIANA...AND INTO TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE NE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N
OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 24N E OF
83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE...AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W IS FLARING UP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PARTS OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 72W-84W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR A 1008 MB LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR 10N78W AND THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS PANAMA TO THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N71W INTO
THE ATLC TO 24N70W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W. MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W TO
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE BILL REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 24N W OF 80W DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 18N71W INTO THE ATLC TO
24N70W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON THE N
SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC OCEAN IS UNDER A
BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 35N51W AND A 1029 MB
AZORES HIGH NEAR 38N22W. BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC RIDGE...BUT WILL SOON BECOME STEERED
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH
AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BETWEEN 45W-75W
AS A RESULT OF THE OUTFLOW OF BILL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR
19N37W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON

[Tropics Guy]

New convection developing north of the low center & some twist apparent also, maybe our next player?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

TG

[gatorcane]

This one appears to be our next player. Should gradually develop and end up more west than Bill did, mainly because it is not likely to develop rapidly which would mean it should flow with the easterlies.

I was checking some wind shear charts and wow, the shear is really lessening across nearly the entire Atlantic basin including the Caribbean. There is some shear associated with Bill's outflow but by early next week, Bill will be long gone.

Code orange and possible invest status could happen at anytime this weekend.

[HURAKAN]

Convection continues to increase

[Sanibel]

See what's there tomorrow. You would think it would follow Bill.

[jinftl]

NOAA Graphic...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

[HURAKAN]

983
ABNT20 KNHC 220600
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N34W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 34W TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND
36W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Invest: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[CourierPR]

Hurakan, that invest is the former Ana several days ago.

[floridasun78]

i see their say it have low pressure with this wave soon i bet it be invest if look better

[floridasun78]

Hurakan, that invest is the former Ana several days ago.

nhc do have invest post in sat pic page next to sat pic of bill maybe wait for sat to be move soon http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[KWT]

Yeah its on this system now. Looks like the convection has developed to the north of the circulation, wil lbe interesting to see if the circulation is forced northwards or not. Either way the main turning seems to be around 12.5/37.

[cycloneye]

NHC is not enthusiastic about this system.

637
ABNT20 KNHC 221141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

I can understand why lookingt at the WV, theres a nice big ULL dropping southwards on the eastern side of Bill which seems to be an issue with regards to the shear, though Bill's outflow is still causing a lot of shear in the E.Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Look at that big ULL.If it survives this huge hurdle,then it might have a chance much further west like CMC continues to suggest.

[jinftl]

Something getting going towards the end of the week....below 10N????