The Official 2010 Season Cancel Thread (NO MAJOR LANDFALLS!

[StormClouds63]

It was many of the so-called "experts" who called for a season which might rival 2005 in terms of numbers. All seem to be finally backing off that possibility. 2005 was a once in a 50-100 year tropical season. The fact that it was even brought up initially was ridiculous.

Peak of 2010 season has to be much later than the traditional September 10 if even the revised numbers will be approached.

Let's wait and see ... and stay focused and vigilant.

[ConvergenceZone]

Good points Storm Center.
Also, because of the Cold Fronts and higher shear that occurs in the fall,
the window for any potential CV storms is only about 4 weeks, probaby from
around August 15th until September 15th...After that, any CV storms will probably
get sheard apart and head out to sea...Of course after another 4 weeks there will still be potential for Carib or Gulf storms. So we really have about another 4 weeks for any long tracker hopes.

[M_0331]

45 years ago, we did not even think about a cane till Labor day. I grow up near the coast in SC about 60 miles from NC line. I remember that it was always a race to get the corn in before it got blown over. I vaguely remember Hazel hitting & every thing being torn up(I know we were on the 'good' side of the storm). All the chickens & one duck(the duck thought it was a chicken because it never saw another duck) were blown thru the fence. During my military days I learned something we should remember: 'Hurry & Wait'-99% boredom & 1%(terror, run, whatever, etc etc). Don't wait & hope for something, the bullets will come when least expect it. After Diane in ~'84 in Leland, NC, Diane hit one night then backed up & hit again the next night; just a "Cat 1" but when on the bad side it was rough. Then I had mis-fortune of flying by Huey to the Cooper River Dupont plant about 6 hours before the winds of Hugo started to help shutdown & help out at the plant. To be up a 100' steel-reinforced tower block enclosed, but windows blown out & feel ~140 mph winds, ~160 mph gusts ,may have been higher since we were 100' from ground level is only beat by being on a 900 meter high hill(~mountain) on a recon mission & trapped because the area was too 'hot' (enemy fire) for choppers to get us off before a typoon(sp) hit. Dig a deep hole & hold on. The wind sucked rain out of hole. At ground level the winds were 130 mph, so 130/.9 - 145mph. Jim Cantore wants to be in the bad , he should try that. We did not get off that hill for five days because all the choppers were beat up by storm. I was in I Corp(near DMZ) ,VN. We Marines were eternally happy to be picked up by Several 1st Air Cav(army) Choppers that heard our one survival radio call.
S/F

[KWT]

Good points Storm Center.
Also, because of the Cold Fronts and higher shear that occurs in the fall,
the window for any potential CV storms is only about 4 weeks, probaby from
around August 15th until September 15th...After that, any CV storms will probably
get sheard apart and head out to sea...Of course after another 4 weeks there will still be potential for Carib or Gulf storms. So we really have about another 4 weeks for any long tracker hopes.

Actually with La Nina you can probably go right out till the end of September for the CV season, take the likes of Georges and Janet as examples, though I admit it becomes harder to not have them go out to sea after the 15th...

The Caribbean tends to usually have one big storm either in the Caribbean or exiting the Caribbean in La Ninas...If I put a list up (I'll do so tomorrow possibly, make a new thread to highlight the danger) you'd find probably many of the most well known hurricanes in that list, as well as numerous cat-4/5 landfalling hurricanes.

[KWT]

Hmmmm...amazing how we go from all the bust posts to having a 60mph TS Colin which has possibly a real shot at being a brief hurricane...

Shows the TUTT isn't totally the be all and end all....when a system is not moving westwards against the upper flow.

[M_0331]

BUMP
Since it is an item of debate.

[Texas Snowman]

It was many of the so-called "experts" who called for a season which might rival 2005 in terms of numbers. All seem to be finally backing off that possibility. 2005 was a once in a 50-100 year tropical season. The fact that it was even brought up initially was ridiculous.

Peak of 2010 season has to be much later than the traditional September 10 if even the revised numbers will be approached.

Let's wait and see ... and stay focused and vigilant.

No offense, but I find these posts and threads to be hilarious. Like the mention above of "so-called experts."

Well, many of the season forecasts issued calling for a hyper-active year weren't by so'called experts, they were the real thing...tropical meterology experts (including several on Storm2k.org).

But IMO, two things are forgotten in all of this.

First, at the very best, all such pre-season forecasts and speculation are just that, forecasts and speculation. They can be wrong, they can be right, or they can be something in between. Despite all of the advances in numerical forecasting, computer models, etc. the weather still does what the weather still does...alll without consulting any of us.

Second, if this proves to be be a "quieter than expected season" (and we will not know that until it's over), what's so wrong with that? Cat 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes may be exciting when they are out at sea, but when they impact land, there is nothing exciting or thrilling about such storms. They bring untold misery, human suffering, destruction, and death.

So if 2010 is a "disappointment" season, that's a great thing IMO.

[dwsqos2]

I expect 8/3/1 for the remainder of the season. Most of these storms will probably have non-tropical origins.

[Brent]

Another lame TD that doesn't deserve a name. NEXT and SEASON CANCEL.

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't know a Danielle, so no ill feelings toward that name - SAVE THE NAME.

[barometerJane61]

I must say,I was certain we would have 1 or 2 hurricanes already given the La Nina factor but I guess you can't rely only on that to create hurricanes.We'll see some canes but I think that won't happen till September.Potential 95L could develope into one eventually but I'm not holding my breath

[somethingfunny]

I must say,I was certain we would have 1 or 2 hurricanes already given the La Nina factor but I guess you can't rely only on that to create hurricanes.We'll see some canes but I think that won't happen till September.Potential 95L could develope into one eventually but I'm not holding my breath

We certainly have had 1 hurricane already, which falls into the range of your prediction.

[gatorcane]

TD #5 just bit the dust, 93L to follow shortly....models showing nothing interesting for the rest of August. I'd say it is very BORING out there at the moment. Is it really August out therE?

[StormClouds63]

Now that Danielle remains unused, I have the following left for 2010: 10/6/3 (started w/13/7/3).

Keep an eye on the wave in the east-central Atlantic ... just a hunch it may become 95L and, perhaps, a future player.

[BigA]

I'm waiting to hit the proverbial panic button until 8 days from now, August 19, the day in 1998 that the Td formed that became hurricane Bonnie. If there's nothing imminent then, I'll worry. Until then, I'm just going to cast an eye out east and if something happens, it happens. If not, it doesn't.

[Tireman4]

Its OVER!!!

[Cyclone1]

This thread is slowly and slowly becoming less sarcastic and more "no, seriously, this season sucks."

[tolakram]

Can we disable the edit button for just this thread?

[Jinkers]

It's over, since Alex, everything has wussed out... Looking forward to 2011...lol

[somethingfunny]

BUMP