ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ROCK]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

Cold front....you mean cool front which means lower dew points and lower lows...highs still close to 90s according to the NWS....

[cycloneye]

GFS keeps forming two different systems.

[ROCK]

on the move...

[ROCK]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thats what our office and mets around here think as well Rock. A cool front which will bring night time lows down a couple degrees and lower humidity for a couple of days then back to how it is now. High today was 95.

[Ivanhater]

GFS kicks the cut off low back NW and turns it back north toward the big bend

[Vortex]

The consensus is slowly growing for a FL threat...

[Vortex]

The GFS for many runs now has continued to indicate a real threat over or near FL…The devils in the details

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That run is also based on what the GFS does with that strong upper low in NE LA. As it moves out the storm then turns more north. So if the UL is non-existant next run then where does the storm end up? Just don't see how in the world the GFS gets the placement and strength of a UL 8 days from now.

[Ivanhater]

The consensus is slowly growing for a FL threat...

Well, my current thinking is some of the models are overdoing the trough for late September, especially given the pattern we have been in all season. I do not think we are going to have quite that big of a change all at once this early. Both the GFS and Euro have shifted west and a shallower trough from this time yesterday. The GFS is now kicking back the cut -off low to the NW instead is riding with the upper trough. I think we will see a draw north instead of a hook off to the NE.

GFS and Euro(extrapolated) have landfall at 300 plus hours out. I don't care if there is a consensus now, it will undoubetly change a few times given the time frame.

[deltadog03]

Honestly, I feel like this one will be tough to track. Too many variables into the SE US Plus we have a really favorable MJO which is allowing a lot of upward motion. The models, especially the convective feedback king GFS, will show us many different looks. IMO*** whatever develops will be a big system with plenty of heat/moisture to work with.

[ROCK]

we are talking 312hr......whats that 14 days from now? there is no consensus give that time frame. That is la la land...Ivan is right... forecast track is going to flip all over the place...

[lonelymike]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

Cold front....you mean cool front which means lower dew points and lower lows...highs still close to 90s according to the NWS....

Local NWS says Cold Front is supposed to clear the area around Destin this weekend so that is somewhat encouraging news. Low is 59 Monday nite

[BigA]

18Z Nogaps has a hurricane at the western tip of Cuba at 144 hours. Crazy how the models can have such different speeds of motion.

[wxman57]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

Cold front....you mean cool front which means lower dew points and lower lows...highs still close to 90s according to the NWS....

It's the upper-air steering flow that makes the difference, not the temps behind the front.

[ROCK]

18Z Nogaps has a hurricane at the western tip of Cuba at 144 hours. Crazy how the models can have such different speeds of motion.

NOGAPS keeps truckin it along....whereas GFS wants it to sit and spin for a week.....lol landfall at 336hr.....just 2 weeks from now...

[ROCK]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

Cold front....you mean cool front which means lower dew points and lower lows...highs still close to 90s according to the NWS....

It's the upper-air steering flow that makes the difference, not the temps behind the front.

Oh I agree...just making lite that the cool front will not be that refreshing....wasnt even looking at the steering flow at GFS 300hr....though it is entertaining....

[lonelymike]

Hey Wxman57 can we get one of those handy dandy top secret historical maps you are so good at. Tried it today at work and couldn't get it to come up. Operator error

[southerngale]

Local NWS says Cold Front is supposed to clear the area around Destin this weekend so that is somewhat encouraging news. Low is 59 Monday nite

59? Wow. I wish that was expected here. I'm gonna miss swimming, but also looking forward to cool weather.

As for 95L, I see nothing to worry WGOM'ers and feel like this will be a Central to East GOM threat. JMO and I am not a trained met nor do I play one on s2k.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian ensemble mean