Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

CODE YELLOW

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[Cyclone1]

INVESTification™ seems imminent.

[gatorcane]

it looks like it is starting to lift out to the north...and gradually organizing if you ask me.

I see a distinct spin and convection has grown. Shear does not seem to be quite as bad now as it was a few days ago.

Models are showing the shear really dropping over towards the end of the week.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS turns bullish

12z UKMET very bullish towards Haiti

12z CMC as a hurricane towards Western Cuba

12z NOGAPS towards Cuba as a TS

[Hurricanehink]

Definitely a neat scenario having two potential areas of formation on June 1st! For comparison, here are the TWO's for the past seven years.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOAT/TWOAT.201006011733.txt - 10% for the remnants of Agatha in 2010

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOAT/TWOAT.200906012355.txt - <30% for a non-tropical low near Azores in 2009

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al01/al012008.discus.004.shtml? - better than a TWO, we had Tropical Storm Arthur over Mexico in 2008

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/al02/al022007.discus.001.shtml? - ditto 2007, we had Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico in 2007

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOAT/2006/TWOAT.200606012114.txt - nada in 2006

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOAT/2005/TWOAT.200506011411 - ditto 2005

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/TWOAT/2004/TWOAT.200406011452 - we had a tropical wave in the tropical Atlantic in 2004

Before 2007, the last time a (sub)tropical cyclone was active on the start of the hurricane season was 1997, but that was a subtropical cyclone that was upgraded post-season. Before that was TD 1 in 1993, which formed in late May and lasted until June 1 after moving across Cuba. The same thing happened in 1988, 1987, and 1969, and finally in 1968 Hurricane Abby developed on June 1st in the western Caribbean.

(data per http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/r ... _final.txt)

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS turns bullish

12z UKMET very bullish towards Haiti

12z CMC as a hurricane towards Western Cuba

12z NOGAPS towards Cuba as a TS

and so the model wars begin

[ronjon]

12Z NAM for what its worth.

[flwxwatcher]

12z GFS turns bullish

12z UKMET very bullish towards Haiti

12z CMC as a hurricane towards Western Cuba

12z NOGAPS towards Cuba as a TS

and so the model wars begin

Yea, Crazy Uncle brings it to South Florida and GFS east of Florida.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

The models haven't been consistent on strength or direction and have been flip flopping, which is to be expected with a developing system . It will be interesting to see when we see a consensus with the models emerge with this system.

[AdamFirst]

Strap in, fellas, it's going to be an interesting ride.

[Ivanhater]

Long range Canadian

[gatorcane]

I really hope it stays weak and dumps *alot* of rain for us here in South Florida. I have never seen it so dry in all the years I have lived here. We can use the rain.

SAT images continue to show that moisture is building in this area and the shear is not quite as strong because the cloud tops are not getting blown off to the ENE as quickly. It looks like something may actually get going here in my opinion. I am always amazed how the models can predict this so far out (remember some of the models showed this a week ago)......

and usually if multiple models are showing it, something is up.....question now is what happens if it develops. Does it even make it out of the Caribbean at all? Models are usually too quick to eject systems out of the Western Caribbean...in this case some models keep in there for a week or even longer. A track South of Florida through Cuba and the Bahamas is one climatologically favored track.

[Ivanhater]

I really hope it stays weak and dumps *alot* of rain for us here in South Florida. I have never seen it so dry in all the years I have lived here. We can use the rain.

SAT images continue to show that moisture is building in this area and the shear is not quite as strong. It looks like something may actually get going here in my opinion. I am always amazed how the models can predict this so far out (remember some of the models showed this a week ago)......

and usually if multiple models are showing it, something is up.....

SE Florida, NW Florida and the entire Gulf coast are in an extreme drought....we all need the rain and soon!

[PTrackerLA]

Can't remember the last time basically the ENTIRE gulf of mexico region needs rain so badly. Currently 97 degrees here as I look out the window at an absolutely parched landscape...

HOPEFULLY somehow this system will make it into the gulf and bring about lots of tropical rain for the entire region. Something has got to give soon right? I too can never remember it so dry in Louisiana.

[Ivanhater]

Can't remember the last time basically the ENTIRE gulf of mexico region needs rain so badly. Currently 97 degrees here as I look out the window at an absolutely parched landscape...

HOPEFULLY somehow this system will make it into the gulf and bring about lots of tropical rain for the entire region. Something has got to give soon right? I too can never remember it so dry in Louisiana.

Yeah..everyone along the Gulf coast needs rain asap. A nice sloppy spread out tropical storm would be nice in the Gulf. 100 degrees officially at Pensacola right now...102 at Tallahassee

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS coming in even stronger than the 12z run through 144 hours

[Ivanhater]

168 hours

[weatherwindow]

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/5 just for grins....old farmers almanac.... florida hurricane threats june 10-13 and june 21-24...not one but two nuts for the blind squirrel.......rich

[cycloneye]

8:00 PM EDT TWO.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Florida1118]

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/5 just for grins....old farmers almanac.... florida hurricane threats june 10-13 and june 21-24...not one but two nuts for the blind squirrel.......rich

Well they got the heavy thunderstorms for Florida right...but definatly not the "cool" part

JUNE 2011: temperature 79 ° (2 ° below avg.); precipitation 14.5" (8" above avg.); Jun 1-3: Heavy t-storms, cool; Jun 4-9: Sunny north, a few t-storms south; Jun 10-13: Hurricane threat; Jun 14-20: Sunny north, t-storms south; cool; Jun 21-24: Hurricane threat; Jun 25-30: Scattered t-storms, warm.

JULY 2011: temperature ; precipitation .

And it looks like in july we'll be having a temperatures and precipitation! Shocking!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Can't remember the last time basically the ENTIRE gulf of mexico region needs rain so badly. Currently 97 degrees here as I look out the window at an absolutely parched landscape...

HOPEFULLY somehow this system will make it into the gulf and bring about lots of tropical rain for the entire region. Something has got to give soon right? I too can never remember it so dry in Louisiana.

Yeah..everyone along the Gulf coast needs rain asap. A nice sloppy spread out tropical storm would be nice in the Gulf. 100 degrees officially at Pensacola right now...102 at Tallahassee

To add to this, over here in south LA into south MS we had numerous record highs broken. For here in Baton Rouge we broke the record all the way back from 1908 hitting 100 today And just think it is only June 1. Only four more months of this. Under a statewide burn ban now until further notice.