WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

JTWC expects a category 5 super typhoon!

[euro6208]

PINHOLE!

HOLY S*IT!

[Fyzn94]

I'm wondering if this could be a low-latitude repeat of Forrest from '83....

[Teddyfred]

Remember Wilma from 2005 from the AHS? Highest only reach 6.5 on dvorak and ADT at 6.8 and Raw at 7.0 just like what we see over here...

Well haiyan has a higher number than that and numbers still increasing!

Both with PINHOLE EYES!

Wilma during her RI phase looked exactly like this:

[Alyono]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa. ... &id=HAIYAN

satellite data as of 18Z was 92 KT. Seems 95 KT was a good estimate at 18Z. Could be 100 or 105 though as of 21Z

[euro6208]

I'm wondering if this could be a low-latitude repeat of Forrest from '83....

Forrest is the fastest intensification storm in the world when it deepened by 100 mb in just 24 hours, 976 to 876mb in September...

Wilma went down to 882 mb but this is November...

Pressures are lower this month so I wouldn't be surprised if this is as low as 860mb...

impressive...

[Frank2]

I wonder if the Guam WSFO will be issuing any local statements for Yap and Palau - nothing as of this morning...

[Frank2]

I'll correct myself:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/HLSPQ3

[supercane4867]

Remember Wilma from 2005 from the AHS? Highest only reach 6.5 on dvorak and ADT at 6.8 and Raw at 7.0 just like what we see over here...

Well haiyan has a higher number than that and numbers still increasing!

Both with PINHOLE EYES!

Wilma didn't reach higher dvorak numbers at the time because satellites are totally useless on measuring temperature of extremely small eyes

A bias-corrected post season analyze has Wilma at T7.8, which is second highest of 21st centry only below Monica

[cycloneye]

Beautiful closeup image as the sun goes up. That small island is Yap.

[stormkite]

2013NOV05 213000 6.7 912.7 +5.1 132.2 6.7 7.0 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF

[Alyono]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .64pc.html

EWRC under way

[hurricanes1234]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc13/WPAC/31W.HAIYAN/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/20131105.2056.f17.x.91h.31WHAIYAN.105kts-944mb-71N-1412E.64pc.html

EWRC under way

But didn't the eye just clear out not too long ago?

[hurricanes1234]

THIS IS ONE SPECTACLE.

[Alyono]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc13/WPAC/31W.HAIYAN/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/20131105.2056.f17.x.91h.31WHAIYAN.105kts-944mb-71N-1412E.64pc.html

EWRC under way

But didn't the eye just clear out not too long ago?

been there for 24 hours. The cirrus has just cleared away.

This should be a very short duration EWRC. Net effect may be simply to slow the rate of intensification for 12 to 24 hours.

[dexterlabio]

personally i am not a fan of pinhole eyes. but with storms having this very small eye, could it mean hurricane/typhoon conditions are also confined within a very small radius? Like Hurricane Wilma in 2005?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS makes this landfall over Central Leyte then to Bogo, Cebu! Y.I.K.E.S!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

personally i am not a fan of pinhole eyes. but with storms having this very small eye, could it mean hurricane/typhoon conditions are also confined within a very small radius? Like Hurricane Wilma in 2005?

Not necessarily, I mean, they can grow in size, and they depend on strength. Tip's eye wasn't that large but typhoon force winds covered a HUGE area....

[cycloneye]

TXPQ25 KNES 052104
TCSWNP

A. 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 05/2030Z

C. 7.3N

D. 140.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=6.5 BASED ON WH BAND WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED BY
CDG. PT=5.5. MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION. CONSTRAINTS
BROKEN BASED ON 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 6.6.

[hurricanes1234]

I now see what Alyono means, the eye is just starting to fill in on the latest frame.