2014 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

None of the major models (CPC, NAVGEM, GFS, GEM/CMC & ECMWF) currently expect tropical cyclone development within the next 2 weeks.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wish NOAA would issue a season tropical outlook/forecast for this basin too.

[euro6208]

Long range 384 and 240 hours from GFS and EURO showing nothing...The drought continues...

[euro6208]

I wish NOAA would issue a season tropical outlook/forecast for this basin too.

NWS Guam could do that but not sure why they don't issue any since they are part of NOAA too

[euro6208]

Oh what a season this will be as pressures will steadily decrease as we head towards the last half of year. Get your tracking map, supplies and essential typhoon survival kit ready.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

With that, we could see massive development over the eastern part of the basin. Although, ECMWF showing higher pressures over the Western and SW regions of the basin.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I find it weird that May turned out to be a storm-free month, like last year. We saw 2 typhoons though before May and this is kinda like a more powerful repeat of 2013.

[Meow]

Code: Select all

AXPQ20 RJTD 210700
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1405 TAPAH (1405)
PERIOD FROM APR2700UTC TO MAY0206UTC
2700 10.1N 146.5E 1008HPA  //KT  2706 10.4N 146.8E 1006HPA  //KT
2712 11.2N 147.0E 1006HPA  //KT  2718 11.8N 147.0E 1004HPA  //KT
2800 12.5N 147.0E 1002HPA  35KT  2806 13.2N 147.2E  998HPA  35KT
2812 14.0N 147.4E  994HPA  40KT  2818 14.8N 147.4E  990HPA  45KT
2900 15.6N 147.3E  985HPA  50KT  2906 16.5N 147.4E  985HPA  50KT
2912 17.2N 147.5E  985HPA  50KT  2918 18.0N 147.5E  985HPA  50KT
3000 18.7N 147.4E  985HPA  50KT  3006 19.3N 147.2E  990HPA  45KT
3012 19.8N 146.8E  996HPA  40KT  3018 20.5N 146.1E 1002HPA  35KT
0100 21.3N 145.3E 1006HPA  //KT  0106 22.0N 144.4E 1008HPA  //KT
0112 22.8N 143.8E 1008HPA  //KT  0118 23.5N 144.0E 1008HPA  //KT
0200 24.1N 144.2E 1010HPA  //KT  0206 24.9N 145.2E 1012HPA  //KT
REMARKS
TD   FORMATION  AT APR2700UTC
FROM TD  TO TS  AT APR2800UTC
FROM TS  TO STS AT APR2900UTC
FROM STS TO TS  AT APR3006UTC
FROM TS  TO TD  AT MAY0100UTC
DISSIPATION     AT MAY0212UTC=

Tapah is no longer a May storm.

[euro6208]

Tapah is no longer a May storm.

Typhoon Tapah at peak intensity in April...

[stormkite]

That JMA data is like a cheap suit it just dont fit. 50 knots





The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite collected infrared data on Typhoon Tapah on April 29 at 03:47 UTC (April 28 at 11:47 p.m. EDT). A false-colored image was created at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif. showing the temperature data gathered by AIRS. The data showed that there were strong thunderstorms with cold cloud-top temperatures near -63F/-52C around the center of Tapah's circulation and to the east of the center where bands of thunderstorms were wrapping into the center.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center also looked at animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image and both showed that the convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up the tropical cyclone) had weakened slightly during the morning hours (Eastern Daylight Time/U.S.) of April 29. Both sets of data confirmed the AIRS data and also showed bands of thunderstorms remained tightly wrapped into the low level center.
Tapah reached typhoon strength today, April 29, when maximum sustained winds were near 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph). At 1500 UTC/11 a.m. EDT, Typhoon Tapah was centered near 17.6 north latitude and 147.2 east longitude, about 151 nautical miles (173.8 miles/279.7 km) northeast of Saipan. Tapah has tracked northward at 8 knots (9.2 mph/14.8 kph).


: http://phys.org/news/2014-04-tapah-infr ... n.html#jCp

[euro6208]

Kelvin Wave forecast to move through our area first and second week of June. This along with the MJO and Above average sst could spawn our next TC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That JMA data is like a cheap suit it just dont fit. 50 knots





The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite collected infrared data on Typhoon Tapah on April 29 at 03:47 UTC (April 28 at 11:47 p.m. EDT). A false-colored image was created at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif. showing the temperature data gathered by AIRS. The data showed that there were strong thunderstorms with cold cloud-top temperatures near -63F/-52C around the center of Tapah's circulation and to the east of the center where bands of thunderstorms were wrapping into the center.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center also looked at animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image and both showed that the convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up the tropical cyclone) had weakened slightly during the morning hours (Eastern Daylight Time/U.S.) of April 29. Both sets of data confirmed the AIRS data and also showed bands of thunderstorms remained tightly wrapped into the low level center.
Tapah reached typhoon strength today, April 29, when maximum sustained winds were near 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph). At 1500 UTC/11 a.m. EDT, Typhoon Tapah was centered near 17.6 north latitude and 147.2 east longitude, about 151 nautical miles (173.8 miles/279.7 km) northeast of Saipan. Tapah has tracked northward at 8 knots (9.2 mph/14.8 kph).


: http://phys.org/news/2014-04-tapah-infr ... n.html#jCp

From following in JMA's forecast in the past, I'm definitely going for JTWC's estimates and predictions.

[euro6208]

Interesting system south of guam. Although no model support.

Convection has steadily increased and become more symmetric while banding has improved. I suspect convection will continue to increase and strengthen during diurnal max (sunrise).

Something to watch while we are in a lull

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Interesting system south of guam. Although no model support.

Convection has steadily increased and become more symmetric while banding has improved. I suspect convection will continue to increase and strengthen during diurnal max (sunrise).

Something to watch while we are in a lull

Conditions are very favorable however. SSTs are high and shear has greatly relaxed over the past few weeks.

[Meow]

JTWC’s minimal TY vs. JMA’s minimal STS

JMA tends to be stricter this year, I guess. Peipah, for example, becomes a short-lived TS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC’s minimal TY vs. JMA’s minimal STS

JMA tends to be stricter this year, I guess. Peipah, for example, becomes a short-lived TS.

IMO, they are one of the best agencies in the world. They just need to fix the Koba scale, or if not use a better 10-min scale, like the BOM. If that would happen, they would receive massive acclaim and would be less disregarded.

They should also revise the intensities of Faxai and Tapah to an increase in the winds and decrease in the pressure. Tapah needs to have a post-analysis and be upgraded to typhoon status.

[Meow]

IMO, they are one of the best agencies in the world. They just need to fix the Koba scale, or if not use a better 10-min scale, like the BOM. If that would happen, they would receive massive acclaim and would be less disregarded.

Is BOM’s really better? If JMA uses, many storms would not be named as the scale mainly requires T3.0 to upgrade.

[euro6208]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 242144
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
744 AM CHST SUN MAY 25 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WAS BRINGING CLOUDS
TO THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE...NOW SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS...WILL DEVELOP FURTHER
AND INCH NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSED MAINLY OVER GUAM
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS SHOWS THAT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WERE MORE
PREVALENT BEFORE NOON TIME. SHOWERS DECREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE AGAIN DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT
AGREED WITH THIS GENERAL TREND. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE SHOWER AREA
PASSING NEAR GUAM QUITE WELL. THEY ALSO SHOW THIS AREA REMAINING
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ONLY OVER GUAM AND
ROTA TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE SHOWN SPREADING TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN
MONDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN TO REFLECT
THIS CHANGE. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

A MID-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW NORTH OF 20N WILL SINK SOUTHWARD.
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ISOLATED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST. SWELLS FROM A STORM THAT WAS NEAR JAPAN HAVE MOVED
SOUTH. BUOY DATA SHOWS THAT THE NORTH SWELL DID ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THESE SWELLS HAVE ALSO HELPED RAISED COMBINED SEAS TO 4 TO
6 FEET. THE NORTH SWELL WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE SURF ON NORTH
FACING REEFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EAST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURF TO DECREASE ON
EAST FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TRADE WINDS ACROSS
MICRONESIA FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE DATE LINE HAVE
DECREASED TO BETWEEN GENTLE AND MODERATE. THIS IS A RESULT FROM
THE WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR MINA TORI SHIMA. DESPITE WEAKER SURFACE CONVERGENCE...A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE MODEST DIVERGENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A SURFACE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES IS SEEN BETWEEN
CHUUK AND POHNPEI THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE COULD SPARK OFF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK TODAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS CHUUK THRU MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POHNPEI UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A
BROAD TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING KOSRAE. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS ENTERING KOSRAE WATERS AND WILL SPREAD OVER
THE ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL CONVERGENCE EAST OF
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR
MAJURO THRU THIS EVENING. THIS SAME DISTURBANCE COULD ARRIVE AT
POHNPEI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CHUUK ON MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON
ASCAT IMAGERY...THERE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM FROM
THE DATE LINE EASTWARD TO NEAR 155W. THEREFORE A PERIOD OF
ISOLATED TRADE- WIND SHOWER REGIME SHOULD PLAN OUT FOR MAJURO AND
KOSRAE FROM MONDAY EVENING THRU MIDWEEK...AND ALSO FOR POHNPEI
AND CHUUK BY MIDWEEK.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND WITHIN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN.

A PRONOUNCED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINE SEA TO NEAR 18N THIS MORNING. IT IS ENHANCING
DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY OVER KOROR AND YAP EVEN FURTHER.
THIS IS CAUSING SPORADIC CONVECTION TO FLARE UP NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO LAST AT LEAST THRU
TONIGHT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING
OFF THE EAST CHINA COAST TOWARD KOREA AND JAPAN TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH MORE AND INTRODUCE
GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS KOROR AND YAP BY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS COULD ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO RETURN THRU MIDWEEK. AFTERWARD
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE CONVERGENCE MIGHT RAISE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

While the ePac has their first major hurricane, with an ACE of 415% of the norm, the WPac doesn't have a typhoon stronger than 75 knots, and our ACE now is about 40-45% of the norm. Lack of disturbances.

[stormkite]

Slow yeah hope it kicks off soon i remember last season was slow then it just took off and kept producing. Meow the Bom uses JTWC to cross reference intensity. Sticking to the Shem and Wespac to many show pony's in those other basins.