ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here is another visible image with the wind directions in the islands. Impressive I have to say.

[Alyono]

pressure seems to have fallen to 1005mb. This is intensifying quickly this afternoon

[RL3AO]

Looks very good on satellite to me. Certainly a case of "be ready for a category or two higher than forecast" here.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BobHarlem]

I don't get it, if the forecast path shows a hurricane about to make landfall on PR/Western VI, why is it only a tropical storm watch there now?

[NDG]

Like I said, with no problems with windshear dry air intrusion will be very minimal if at all.

Another satellite pix, amazing how quickly its presentation has become in just 12 hrs.

[Gustywind]

pressure seems to have fallen to 1005mb. This is intensifying quickly this afternoon

Any source about that? Thanks

[Alyono]

the NHC model guidance has been regularly updated with the latest pressure

[BobHarlem]

I don't get it, if the forecast path shows a hurricane about to make landfall on PR/Western VI, why is it only a tropical storm watch there now?

Never mind... 5PM

"A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS."

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Gonzalo's pressures down to 1004 mb now... while at 130 PM pressure was at 1009 mb.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[pgoss11]

That's a pretty abrupt turn there.

[BobHarlem]

The 5pm discussion mentions a 10nm "primitive eye", which tells me that the advisory windspeed of 45MPH may be way on the low side. I hope this doesn't catch people blindsided in the islands. I wouldn't be shocked to wake up to a hurricane tomorrow if that continues.

[cycloneye]

This sentence opened my eyes.

Although occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air could briefly
disrupt the strengthening process, those occurrences should
generally be short-lived due to the strong instability conditions
that will be present. In fact, rapid intensification is a very
distinct possibility,

[galaxy401]

Gonzalo has that "look" of potential RI. The islands will need to keep a close eye on this.

[CrazyC83]

I'd be preparing for a hurricane if I lived in the NE Caribbean.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

A little off topic but does anyone see to the south east of the Yucatan peninsula. Fire up there of a lot of storms. Probably nothing but impressive.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

I'd be preparing for a hurricane if I lived in the NE Caribbean.

Same here and I called it on these forums a few pages back that I thought it would be a hurricane by 48 hours and that was about 30 hours ago.

[RL3AO]

If I was in PR or the USVI, I would ask myself "am I ready for a category 3 hurricane"?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeGaBob]

Hammy do you have anything else to say being it had a "less than 10% chance to form" in your opinion? On a side note I'd have to say this is the best looking TS so far this season. I do hope people in PR and surrounding areas are prepared for this and no lives are lost.

[ronjon]

Hmmm...colder than normal upper tropospheric temps, low forward speed, warm SSTs, strong vertical upward motion, and low shear. If there's a case for RI, this is it!