Texas Fall-2015

[wxman57]

Over 3" of rain at my house this morning. Streets flooded and kept me from leaving for work for an hour. 12Z GFS indicates quite a cool-down this weekend. However, temps back up near 100 by next weekend:

[Brent]

Yeah I thought summer was over... what's with this talk of pushing 100 again? Looks like more than a day or two also. The GFS isn't even being consistent with a cool off in the long range even though it'll be almost October...

Edit: Well the worst weatherbug gets is 92/73 and then it drops off slightly at the end of the 10 day. Not terrible but not great.

[TheProfessor]

The Heat miser is having his fun for the next week or so, but I have a feeling he's not going like this winter. <-wxman57

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

This is true ... no dome over the PWC the last few days.

Yesterday afternoon we received .41" of rain in a late afternoon shower.

As you well know, the Dome(The OMEGA BLOCK) will return this winter. That is guaranteed!

This I cannot deny. It no longer snows in Austin but we are the Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas.

[wxman57]

The Heat miser is having his fun for the next week or so, but I have a feeling he's not going like this winter. <-wxman57

I already don't like this coming winter. It's not going to be a pleasant one with sunny and warm weekends for biking (thinking back to 1986 with 90 deg temps in February...)

[dhweather]

Over 3" of rain at my house this morning. Streets flooded and kept me from leaving for work for an hour. 12Z GFS indicates quite a cool-down this weekend. However, temps back up near 100 by next weekend:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12z11sep.gif

Yes, this weekend is a preview of Fall weather, Summer will then resume baking us and drying things back out.

[Brent]

Over 3" of rain at my house this morning. Streets flooded and kept me from leaving for work for an hour. 12Z GFS indicates quite a cool-down this weekend. However, temps back up near 100 by next weekend:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12z11sep.gif

Yes, this weekend is a preview of Fall weather, Summer will then resume baking us and drying things back out.

So much for a pattern change...

[JDawg512]

:uarrow:

This is true ... no dome over the PWC the last few days.

Yesterday afternoon we received .41" of rain in a late afternoon shower.

Got just over an inch with yesterday's storm which kept back building a little and sat stationary over southeast Travis and northern Hays. Saw reports of 2 and a half inches in some areas south and east of here.

At least for me at my house, 1.82 inches has fallen since September 1st so all in all not too bad. Hopefully this coming up week is just a short 7-9 day quiet period before a more active pattern re-establishes itself. Maybe things will change as far as what the models are currently showing by Monday and we see some rain sooner.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

This is true ... no dome over the PWC the last few days.

Yesterday afternoon we received .41" of rain in a late afternoon shower.

Got just over an inch with yesterday's storm which kept back building a little and sat stationary over southeast Travis and northern Hays. Saw reports of 2 and a half inches in some areas south and east of here.

At least for me at my house, 1.82 inches has fallen since September 1st so all in all not too bad. Hopefully this coming up week is just a short 7-9 day quiet period before a more active pattern re-establishes itself. Maybe things will change as far as what the models are currently showing by Monday and we see some rain sooner.

I hope so, because whatever little rain fell at my house this week has long since vanished into the atmosphere. This subtropical jet is taking its sweet time getting its act together to bring up El Nino moisture. Meanwhile, the cracks keep growing wider and deeper in my area. It's still technically Summer, so I guess October is when the real moisture engine starts kicking in.

It'll be cooler this weekend, but I'll be irrigating, yet again. The next time widespread rain is in the forecast, I'm leaving my sprinkler system on. That'll teach me!

[Brent]

Bleh... 18z GFS... far too many 90s and exactly zero rain.

When is this el nino going to start acting like it???

[Ntxw]

Bleh... 18z GFS... far too many 90s and exactly zero rain.

When is this el nino going to start acting like it???

It already has . This weekend's cooler air mass is well below climo well ahead of time. DFW is sitting at almost 40 inches of rain for the year which is on par with most El Nino's. I know it's daunting the shorter range, but it's business as usual. Texas summers a very long and it sucks. But it makes us like winter more (except for a select few). This is why us Texans always complains about our weather all the time. Because it's always extreme being in the plains, too much, too little, too hot, too cold. From wettest month on record to driest and then back to above normal rainfall for Sept...

[Ntxw]

Speaking of rain, the euro weeklies shows gradually getting wetter in week 3 and extremely anomalous wet conditions week 4 (2-3 Standard deviations above normal). If that verified, we could see fall flooding take place but that is still a very long way out.

[Brent]

Bleh... 18z GFS... far too many 90s and exactly zero rain.

When is this el nino going to start acting like it???

It already has . This weekend's cooler air mass is well below climo well ahead of time. DFW is sitting at almost 40 inches of rain for the year which is on par with most El Nino's. I know it's daunting the shorter range, but it's business as usual. Texas summers a very long and it sucks. But it makes us like winter more (except for a select few). This is why us Texans always complains about our weather all the time. Because it's always extreme being in the plains, too much, too little, too hot, too cold. From wettest month on record to driest and then back to above normal rainfall for Sept...

I know... it's just frustrating because I really thought the pattern was changing and we'd get frequent fronts and no prolonged warmth and it's just not proving to be true now, even if this is more normal than that

[Ntxw]

I know... it's just frustrating because I really thought the pattern was changing and we'd get frequent fronts and no prolonged warmth and it's just not proving to be true now, even if this is more normal than that

I agree I feel the same way. I wasn't expecting big fronts yet (until late Sept into Oct) but at the least I thought the Nino would bring more consistent wet days...not necessarily insane qpf..just more consistent cool downs. This is a rough time because we know the end is near yet it's dragging! October usually begins the string of very below normal month tied to El Nino. 2009 was very chilly as was many others. 1957 a year that shows up often was the third coldest October behind 1976 and 1906 all El Nino.

Lets talk about some snow! No there is no snow in the forecast for Texas but back in 1984 on Sept 29th. 0.3 inches of snow fell on Amarillo and parts of the panhandle had nearly 3 inches! So it is possible to get snow in the state during Sept! Even earlier in 1936 snow was reported around the 27th in the far NW parts of the panhandle.

[Brent]

Lets talk about some snow! No there is no snow in the forecast for Texas but back in 1984 on Sept 29th. 0.3 inches of snow fell on Amarillo and parts of the panhandle had nearly 3 inches! So it is possible to get snow in the state during Sept! Even earlier in 1936 snow was reported around the 27th in the far NW parts of the panhandle.

Learn something new everyday... I knew DFW had had snow flurries around Halloween before but September!

[Ptarmigan]

The Heat miser is having his fun for the next week or so, but I have a feeling he's not going like this winter. <-wxman57

I already don't like this coming winter. It's not going to be a pleasant one with sunny and warm weekends for biking (thinking back to 1986 with 90 deg temps in February...)

Or February 1996. Those type of warmth in February are statistical anomalies. They are 1 in 500 or greater events.

[Ptarmigan]

I know... it's just frustrating because I really thought the pattern was changing and we'd get frequent fronts and no prolonged warmth and it's just not proving to be true now, even if this is more normal than that

I agree I feel the same way. I wasn't expecting big fronts yet (until late Sept into Oct) but at the least I thought the Nino would bring more consistent wet days...not necessarily insane qpf..just more consistent cool downs. This is a rough time because we know the end is near yet it's dragging! October usually begins the string of very below normal month tied to El Nino. 2009 was very chilly as was many others. 1957 a year that shows up often was the third coldest October behind 1976 and 1906 all El Nino.

Lets talk about some snow! No there is no snow in the forecast for Texas but back in 1984 on Sept 29th. 0.3 inches of snow fell on Amarillo and parts of the panhandle had nearly 3 inches! So it is possible to get snow in the state during Sept! Even earlier in 1936 snow was reported around the 27th in the far NW parts of the panhandle.

The winter of 1984-1985 was a weak La Nina.

September 1984 is one of the coolest Septembers on record for America. September 1936 is one of the warmest Septembers on record.

Climatological Rankings
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-preci ... -rankings/

[Ntxw]

The winter of 1984-1985 was a weak La Nina.

September 1984 is one of the coolest Septembers on record for America. September 1936 is one of the warmest Septembers on record.

Climatological Rankings
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-preci ... -rankings/

The period between 1982 and 1985 was quite unusual for cold. After the 1982 Super El Nino things turned cold, probably with the assistance of El Chichon eruption during the same year. While not the same magnitude as Pinatubo but it is an equatorial volcano thus widespread impacts on temperatures the years to follow. Of course we had the historic Dec 1983 and jan 1985 tucked in there. The 1980s overall were very -EPO driven, it was like one large EPO party for years with +PDO to boot.

Ridging persisted across Alaska in the 80s




Reversed in the 90s to +EPO

[Brent]

Yeah I've always been fascinated by the 80s weather back in AL/GA too... 1982, 1983, and 1985 all had historic cold outbreaks that haven't been seen even once since. 1989 also had one at Christmastime. I mean sure... there was sort of big cold in 1996 and 2010 but it still didn't compare.

Edit: WOW... I just checked DFW in September 1984... a low of 43? Must have been when it snowed in the Panhandle. The hottest temperature was 98 and no 100's either.

[Ntxw]

It's dry out there, not cold but refreshing. Pristine blue skies with little clouds and haze, no loud chirping of Cicadas. Smells and feels like Football!

Back in 2011 today hit 103 and the high for tomorrow on that year was 107