ATL: BARRY - Models

[Blinhart]

0z Euro shifted East about 100nm

http://i66.tinypic.com/15340ae.jpg

And if it goes 15 to 20 nm west of there it will go right over me.

[tolakram]

As others have pointed out, the GFS tends to accel in this area and this time in the season. This will be very interesting to watch.

[WAcyclone]

The experimental HAFS (Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System) model keeps 92L relatively weak, similar to the GFS:

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1148570160359280649

[ColdMiser123]

The 12z NAM 850 hPa vorticity max is west-southwest of the 6z run, looks slightly better aligned with the 700 hPa vorticity max so far.

[Sambucol]

The 12z NAM 850 hPa vorticity max is west-southwest of the 6z run, looks slightly better aligned with the 700 hPa vorticity max so far.

Does that move the track back to a westerly track toward Texas?

[ColdMiser123]

Still very close to the coast this run, so that will limit how strong it gets.

[HurricaneBrain]

Gut feeling that the 12z GFS run swings back to the stronger intensity it showed in the 0z.

[ColdMiser123]

Gut feeling that the 12z GFS run swings back to the stronger intensity it showed in the 0z.

If the NAM was 50 miles further south, it would have been a significantly stronger solution with better vertical alignment.

[ColdMiser123]

3km continues to be south of the 12 km with surface low placement. Pretty remarkable how different the evolution is actually compared to the 12km.

[Steve]

3km continues to be south of the 12 km with surface low placement. Pretty remarkable how different the evolution is actually compared to the 12km.

Yeah. 12 just spins along the coast and eventually drops the circulation down toward South Texas, whereas the 3km, now run all the way to 84 hours, has an intensifying system just south of the LA Coast at 989mb and likely dropping at 56 hours.

. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=20

[BobHarlem]

Model Pendulum swinging continues.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1148605982840426498

[Frank P]

3km continues to be south of the 12 km with surface low placement. Pretty remarkable how different the evolution is actually compared to the 12km.

Yeah. 12 just spins along the coast and eventually drops the circulation down toward South Texas, whereas the 3km, now run all the way to 84 hours, has an intensifying system just south of the LA Coast at 989mb and likely dropping at 56 hours.

. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=20

That 3k NAM run could increase the pucker pressure along the coast of LA if it were to come to fruition. Just sitting of the coast far enough from land doing loops and strengthening

[Steve]

NAM 3km is finally finished running out to 60 hours (so 7pm Thursday Central Daylight Time). Barry is rapidly deepening and at 981 by the end of the run and dropping. Crazy. Though I'm not a fan of it in the tropics as most others aren't either, sometimes it gets clued in on stuff. Even though 20N is out of its range, it did get Harvey's pressure plunge ahead of some of the big dog models.

[ColdMiser123]

3km continues to be south of the 12 km with surface low placement. Pretty remarkable how different the evolution is actually compared to the 12km.

Yeah. 12 just spins along the coast and eventually drops the circulation down toward South Texas, whereas the 3km, now run all the way to 84 hours, has an intensifying system just south of the LA Coast at 989mb and likely dropping at 56 hours.

. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=20

That is one of the largest discrepancies I can remember between the 3km and the 12km with both placement and intensity of a tropical system.

The 3km also shifted quite a bit southwest compared to the 6z run.

[PTrackerLA]

NAM 3km is finally finished running out to 60 hours (so 7pm Thursday Central Daylight Time). Barry is rapidly deepening and at 981 by the end of the run and dropping. Crazy. Though I'm not a fan of it in the tropics as most others aren't either, sometimes it gets clued in on stuff. Even though 20N is out of its range, it did get Harvey's pressure plunge ahead of some of the big dog models.

That's a very concerning run from the 12z 3km NAM. I remember quite well how it accurately forecast the rapid deepening of Harvey before other models latched on.

[MississippiWx]

NAM 3km is finally finished running out to 60 hours (so 7pm Thursday Central Daylight Time). Barry is rapidly deepening and at 981 by the end of the run and dropping. Crazy. Though I'm not a fan of it in the tropics as most others aren't either, sometimes it gets clued in on stuff. Even though 20N is out of its range, it did get Harvey's pressure plunge ahead of some of the big dog models.

Actually down to 979mb. It's odd that the model solutions are so different. The ones that develop the system strengthen it rather quickly. Then you have the other camp that barely even develops it into a tropical depression. It appears that the difference is in the alignment of the mid-level and low-level circulations. It's difficult to say which group is correct at this point.

[ColdMiser123]

NAM 3km is finally finished running out to 60 hours (so 7pm Thursday Central Daylight Time). Barry is rapidly deepening and at 981 by the end of the run and dropping. Crazy. Though I'm not a fan of it in the tropics as most others aren't either, sometimes it gets clued in on stuff. Even though 20N is out of its range, it did get Harvey's pressure plunge ahead of some of the big dog models.

Actually down to 979mb. It's odd that the model solutions are so different. The ones that develop the system strengthen it rather quickly. Then you have the other camp that barely even develops it into a tropical depression. It appears that the difference is in the alignment of the mid-level and low-level circulations. It's difficult to say which group is correct at this point.

I would lean more toward the Euro solution at this point, since the GFS is doing a poor job depicting the current thunderstorm activity over the NE Gulf.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1148593202980687872

[MississippiWx]

12z ICON still strengthens 92L quickly off the Louisiana coast. Down to 976mb at 90 hours and still strengthening. It's about 50 miles to the east of the 6z run so far.

[ColdMiser123]

12z ICON still strengthens 92L quickly off the Louisiana coast. Down to 976mb at 90 hours and still strengthening. It's about 50 miles to the east of the 6z run so far.

Something worth noting too is that while it is further east, it is actually slower than the 6z run. 0z/6z were already starting to make landfall at this point.

12z RGEM is well south of the 12 km NAM, and south of the 6z run. It's pretty close to the 3km in terms of placement.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS is not showing any vorticity making it into the GOM until tomorrow at 06z. Ummmmmmmmm, am I see things incorrectly