ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Still, I think the lightning fast speed will be an inhibitor to significant strengthening. Just like we've seen with many past systems.....

Probably not if the conditions are favorable which it looks like they will be. Micheal landfalled as a Cat 5 three days after it formed. So I don't think forward speed will hurt it. Only things I can see that could keep somewhat of a lid on it are 95E (if it gets strong), or if 99L remains broad

Are you 100% sure that Michael was moving as fast as this is forecasted to move?

I don’t understand why you are so dead set on this. Drawing a line from Galveston (current TVCN projected landfall location) to the current location is about 1550 miles. Over the course of roughly 150 hours until landfall, that averages to hardly more than 10mph.

[Steve]

Goofy question, do the forum sayings "weak means west" and "right biased models" only apply to certain environmental conditions? Like the massive high pressure we've had this summer?

Yes and not necessarily. Hey Karl.

[ConvergenceZone]

Probably not if the conditions are favorable which it looks like they will be. Micheal landfalled as a Cat 5 three days after it formed. So I don't think forward speed will hurt it. Only things I can see that could keep somewhat of a lid on it are 95E (if it gets strong), or if 99L remains broad

Are you 100% sure that Michael was moving as fast as this is forecasted to move?

I don’t understand why you are so dead set on this. Drawing a line from Galveston (current TVCN projected landfall location) to the current location is about 1550 miles. Over the course of roughly 150 hours until landfall, that averages to hardly more than 10mph.

Fair Enough.... Regardless, I still think a Tuesday landfall is more likely...

[Kohlecane]

Are you 100% sure that Michael was moving as fast as this is forecasted to move?

I don’t understand why you are so dead set on this. Drawing a line from Galveston (current TVCN projected landfall location) to the current location is about 1550 miles. Over the course of roughly 150 hours until landfall, that averages to hardly more than 10mph.

Fair Enough.... Regardless, I still think a Tuesday landfall is more likely...

I don't have time for calculations lol waiting in line! but here you go sorry mods but it is useful to depict in the right environment and what seems to be be fast speed RI is achievable

[floridasun78]

hope all in path are safe no one want see cat 4 hurr let hope not strong as models are saying we see alot stift models from now to landfall so be safe all in path dont go cazy with early models runs

[grapealcoholic]

If advisories were being put out by the NHC right now, it would show a major hurricane landfalling in Houston.

[Kohlecane]

If advisories were being put out by the NHC right now, it would show a major hurricane landfalling in Houston.

Not to sure about that, they can always move up intensity as the day and advisories go on. Very rarely do they ever throw the M on there right off the bat, I could be wrong but not from what I can recall with a highly likely LF storm, seen it with OTS and MDR storms though of of first advisories with a cone!

[grapealcoholic]

If advisories were being put out by the NHC right now, it would show a major hurricane landfalling in Houston.

Not to sure about that, they can always move up intensity as the day and advisories go on. Very rarely do they ever throw the M on there right off the bat, I could be wrong but not from what I can recall with a highly likely LF storm, seen it with OTS and MDR storms though of of first advisories with a cone!

Maybe not quite an M with the first advisory, but certainly a hurricane -- and Houston is currently the bullseye.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1430631384150851585




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1430636091514793991

[Senobia]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong or just explain how the heck the system suppose to be that strong when it's moving that fast? I'm seeing a system in the central Carib on Wednesday Afternoon and it may hit the gulf coast in only 5 days???? How the heck does it suppose to get that strong if the models have it moving that fast? Haven't we seen in the past that systems that move this fast usually take quite a bit of time to get strong, if they ever do at all?? Prior to me saying this, I had originally thought that the system would be entering the southern Gulf on Monday, as opposed to being way up in the North Gulf landfalling.... Thoughts on this??

Yep, I've been wondering the same thing.

[grapealcoholic]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong or just explain how the heck the system suppose to be that strong when it's moving that fast? I'm seeing a system in the central Carib on Wednesday Afternoon and it may hit the gulf coast in only 5 days???? How the heck does it suppose to get that strong if the models have it moving that fast? Haven't we seen in the past that systems that move this fast usually take quite a bit of time to get strong, if they ever do at all?? Prior to me saying this, I had originally thought that the system would be entering the southern Gulf on Monday, as opposed to being way up in the North Gulf landfalling.... Thoughts on this??

Yep, I've been wondering the same thing.

It doesn't seem to be moving that fast though?

[ElectricStorm]

TD14E in the EPAC is currently forecast to peak as a Cat 1 hurricane. As long as that one stays far enough away from Mexico, maybe it can overperform and move some shear over 99L. That and slow consolidation are about the only things that will be able to prevent RI in the gulf.

My guess is 14E/Nora won't hurt 99L much and this will be a big problem. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[lrak]

Goofy question, do the forum sayings "weak means west" and "right biased models" only apply to certain environmental conditions? Like the massive high pressure we've had this summer?

Yes and not necessarily. Hey Karl.

Hi Steve...check your messages

[CrazyC83]

If advisories were being put out by the NHC right now, it would show a major hurricane landfalling in Houston.

Not to sure about that, they can always move up intensity as the day and advisories go on. Very rarely do they ever throw the M on there right off the bat, I could be wrong but not from what I can recall with a highly likely LF storm, seen it with OTS and MDR storms though of of first advisories with a cone!

Maybe not quite an M with the first advisory, but certainly a hurricane -- and Houston is currently the bullseye.

What is the strongest the NHC has ever forecast within 5 days on advisory #1?

[xironman]

So anybody playing at home. I would go north and east because that seems like it is where it wants to set up.

[galaxy401]

If the more northern part ends up developing, there's a serious chance it could miss the Yucatan entirely. Some of the models, such as the ICON, have it missing the peninsula. That could make for a stronger system...

[MGC]

Starting to get that tumbleweed look. Could be a long week ahead for folks on the gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana......MGC

[kevin]

Not to sure about that, they can always move up intensity as the day and advisories go on. Very rarely do they ever throw the M on there right off the bat, I could be wrong but not from what I can recall with a highly likely LF storm, seen it with OTS and MDR storms though of of first advisories with a cone!

Maybe not quite an M with the first advisory, but certainly a hurricane -- and Houston is currently the bullseye.

What is the strongest the NHC has ever forecast within 5 days on advisory #1?

I think Teddy was the strongest advisory #1, I remember people talking about it when the 1st advisory was released.

Edit: I guess I was mistaken, just checked it and the first advisory only had 80 kts. I do still clearly remember a relatively recent storm getting 95 kts in its 1st advisory, but I'm not sure which one.

[emings]

Not to sure about that, they can always move up intensity as the day and advisories go on. Very rarely do they ever throw the M on there right off the bat, I could be wrong but not from what I can recall with a highly likely LF storm, seen it with OTS and MDR storms though of of first advisories with a cone!

Maybe not quite an M with the first advisory, but certainly a hurricane -- and Houston is currently the bullseye.

What is the strongest the NHC has ever forecast within 5 days on advisory #1?

Hurricane Delta last year went from a Tropical Depression to a Category 4 Storm in less than 36 hours. Fastest one I remember was Humberto back in 2007 went from a tropical depression to a Hurricane in 12 Hours.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/UzhXcGc2tuM[/youtube]