ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

So how exactly would the story change if the southern lobe becomes more dominant?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Ok, here is a question/comment. Currently the broad circulation is positively tilted. That would make it more difficult to consolidate vorticity on the north side, correct? You would want it more negatively tilted since the steering flow is westerly.

[skyline385]

Ok, here is a question/comment. Currently the broad circulation is positively tilted. That would make it more difficult to consolidate vorticity on the north side, correct? You would want it more negatively tilted since the steering flow is westerly.

Most models seem to think the north lobe will become the center so I am guessing the physics favor it under the current conditions?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

So how exactly would the story change if the southern lobe becomes more dominant?

It's not certain because the steering remains very complex.

Some ensembles in their recent runs show more potential for SECONUS threat if the southern lobe takes over. In fact, model runs that showed 91L getting really close to Florida or stalling over the Bahamas showed the southern lobe being the more dominant one. They've recently switched over to the northern lobe and now most of the models take this OTS. Because the environment remains quite hostile things are far from certain. I think towards the end of this week we'll have a much better idea. OTS is probably favored here per climo, but in La Nina seasons those odds are less.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Ok, here is a question/comment. Currently the broad circulation is positively tilted. That would make it more difficult to consolidate vorticity on the north side, correct? You would want it more negatively tilted since the steering flow is westerly.

Most models seem to think the north lobe will become the center so I am guessing the physics favor it under the current conditions?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I ask, because generally for an open wave it would not. You would want the northern end in front because it makes cyclonic rotation easier using less energy. That's why the wave the GFS wanted to blow up in the Caribbean didn't develop while it was positively tilted. It is hard to wrap around the energy if the bottom end is out front. It causes it to become more elongated I believe.

[Sciencerocks]

Now this is hideous!!! Elongated mess!

[AutoPenalti]

Now this is hideous!!! Elongated mess!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1676/DXI0QE.gif

Looks to be trying to slingshot to the NE lobe.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022082918, , BEST, 0, 147N, 475W, 30, 1008, DB

[sunnyday]

Just recently, SE Fl was directly in the crosshairs. If I had a nickel for every time they were shown as the focal point of a hurricane landfall and then a recurve happened, I would be rich. Same again today. Here comes the recurve, seemingly, unless things change. My friends down there don’t pay much attention to the crosshairs any more. Not a good idea, though.

[AutoPenalti]

Just recently, SE Fl was directly in the crosshairs. If I had a nickel for every time they were shown as the focal point of a hurricane landfall and then a recurve happened, I would be rich. Same again today. Here comes the recurve, seemingly, unless things change. My friends down there don’t pay much attention to the crosshairs any more. Not a good idea, though.

Better to be prepared to be honest.

[toad strangler]

Now this is hideous!!! Elongated mess!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1676/DXI0QE.gif

If near naked swirls are your thing than ya, this looks worse than 92L

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TorenWX/status/1564322850189836292

[Jr0d]

While it is encouraging to see the models have shifted towards turning north before the CONUS, i am hesitant to write this one off just yet.

If this forms further south than expected(very possible), stays weak until near the Bahamas (also possible), and moves a little slower, then it could miss the shortwave trough that is supposed to pull it north...high pressure is likely going to fill in after that short wave system...

Hopefully todays models have a better grip of the big picture and tomorrow and later this week we wont have the windshield wiper effect with possible paths.

[DestinHurricane]

Just recently, SE Fl was directly in the crosshairs. If I had a nickel for every time they were shown as the focal point of a hurricane landfall and then a recurve happened, I would be rich. Same again today. Here comes the recurve, seemingly, unless things change. My friends down there don’t pay much attention to the crosshairs any more. Not a good idea, though.

When one does finally hit as a major, (and it will in our lifetime, trust me) people will be shocked and unprepared.

[wxman57]

Excellent agreement between GFS & EC as far as track through day 6. However, GFS is 40mb lower than EC for central pressure. GFS just can't help itself.

[Blown Away]

Latest. Appears stationary.

[ElectricStorm]

Convection starting to fire closer to the center now. Should still take a few more days to consolidate, then it should get going once it's north of the islands. Pretty much behaving as expected so far.

[Kingarabian]

Excellent agreement between GFS & EC as far as track through day 6. However, GFS is 40mb lower than EC for central pressure. GFS just can't help itself.

The Euro has been much more bullish on this than the GFS.

[Nimbus]

So how exactly would the story change if the southern lobe becomes more dominant?

It's not certain because the steering remains very complex.

Some ensembles in their recent runs show more potential for SECONUS threat if the southern lobe takes over. In fact, model runs that showed 91L getting really close to Florida or stalling over the Bahamas showed the southern lobe being the more dominant one. They've recently switched over to the northern lobe and now most of the models take this OTS. Because the environment remains quite hostile things are far from certain. I think towards the end of this week we'll have a much better idea. OTS is probably favored here per climo, but in La Nina seasons those odds are less.

The ULL to the north of the elongated surface circulation should lose its influence fairly soon.
Northern "lobe" has been moving back SW and is now again below 15N where this is likely to consolidate.
The circulation is becoming more symmetrical and if the models were expecting the current ULL to pull the low level center out and north early, this run could be a miss for them.
All the 12Z runs were quite comforting except as you explained the ensemble members that better modeled a TUTT miss.

[Sciencerocks]

I am thinking looking at the models that stronger means west and weaker means recurve. Conditions look far more favorable under a stronger ridge that would produce a more westerly track. Irma, Isabel, Andrew, Ike and Dorian are classic examples of this.

If this recurves earlier it may well never become more then a mid end tropical storm. At least until it is moving northeastward out too sea above 30 and then we'll have to see.