EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Definitely weakening now.

[cycloneye]

Still has good punch.

190900 1846N 10632W 6970 02888 9745 +110 +022 135120 124 kt

[cheezyWXguy]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1033455530938744872/goes17_ir_19E_202210221625.gif

Definitely weakening now.

Not convinced. Newer IR frames suggest the full 20nm wide eye is trying to make an appearance. Even if that eye is coming out though, only a few hours left until conditions start getting worse

[galaxy401]

NHC nailed the intensity of Roslyn. Recon data matches those satellite estimates.

[Iceresistance]

ADT just collapsed, but it may ramp back up again, the eye is clearing out once again with a spotty CMG ring.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO re-symmetrizing.

[cycloneye]

ADT just collapsed, but it may ramp back up again, the eye is clearing out once again with a spotty CMG ring.

However, recon has left. Next one until 9 PM EDT.

[Iceresistance]

ADT just collapsed, but it may ramp back up again, the eye is clearing out once again with a spotty CMG ring.

Yep! Raw and Adjusted ADT shot back up to 6.5.

[Iceresistance]

I have no idea what is with the ADT, it's fluctuating very wildly!

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS THAT ROSLYN
IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES




Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Roslyn
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 124 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and a central pressure of 954 mb. These data, combined with
multiple satellite intensity estimates near 115 kt, support keeping
the initial intensity at 115 kt. That make Roslyn a Category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Roslyn
should turn northward during the next few hours, followed by a
north-northeastward motion as it moves around the western periphery
of a mid-level high centered over Mexico. The track guidance
continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of
Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-
northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the
Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants
are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern
Mexico until the cyclone dissipates. The new forecast track is a
little to the left of the previous track through 12 h based on a
more westward initial position. However, after that time it is
similar to the previous forecast.

Roslyn is likely near peak intensity, as it is moving into an area
of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. Due to this and
the trend in the guidance, the new intensity forecast shows slight
weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be
at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on
Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves
through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidental, and the new
intensity forecast now calls for the cyclone to dissipate between
36-48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico tonight and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a
dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning
area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.0N 106.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.4N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[zeehag]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1033455530938744872/goes17_ir_19E_202210221625.gif

Definitely weakening now.

canes donot weaken off cabo corrientes - they ri there.. i trust none of them.
the beast is planning something. remember patricia.
i was under her eye in colimilla. in the marina.. hoping we were ok. now i hope friends are ok.. and not under this roslyn.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[cheezyWXguy]

Pretty clear this went through an EWRC earlier, the cdo and cloud filled eye have expanded considerably since last night. I wonder if this will increase its resilience to the expected increase in shear

[Teban54]

And just like with every EPac storm, people leave when it stops bombing out

[Iceresistance]

And just like with every EPac storm, people leave when it stops bombing out

I still check it just in case it decides to intensify in the middle of the night like a ninja!

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 106.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/____crf/status/1583974560243728384



Roslyn's current appearance reminds me a lot of Ian... Hopefully it will weaken before landfall in Mexico

[tolakram]

I have never seen so many false ERC posts in all my years on S2K, across multiple storms. Every time an eye fills with clouds it's thought to be an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is just not the case.

Wind Shear



source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=