Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[jlauderdal]

6Z gfs has this a weak stretched out mess like the euro now......

Yes, similar idea albeit more organized than the euro but certainly nothing impressive. We saw windshiled wiper effects with Helene, this may be the same. Will follow ensembles more for now.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/bmcnoldy/status/1840360317508899242

[wxman57]

Even the 6Z GFS is coming around to the ICON's solution of a weak low along a cold front. Let's hope that's the case.

[underthwx]

Even the 6Z GFS is coming around to the ICON's solution of a weak low along a cold front. Let's hope that's the case.

I second that.....nobody needs another storm.....btw...yall check out this mornings Hou/Galveston forecast discussion....its a tribute to national coffee day!....coffee is on me!....

[SFLcane]

Trend overnight is for some rain for Florida which is certainly a great thing. Still many in northern FL without power.

[Senobia]

The entire 18Z GFS track shifted to the right quite a bit this run, and while it landfalls in the panhandle (at almost 200 hours which is still far out, plenty of shifting to still happen), that hook to the right is definitely something to keep an eye on because this could end up easily being a storm that hits the west coast of Florida from the Central Gulf on an ENE track.

https://i.postimg.cc/G27ftMsv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh78-216.gif

What's that spin up into the Texas coast October 3-5?

[Kingarabian]

It looks like the model runs with a stronger GOM system, the modeled EPAC system off of Mexico is much weaker. And vice versa. So I would pay attention to what happens in the EPAC in regards to the future of this system.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even the 6Z GFS is coming around to the ICON's solution of a weak low along a cold front. Let's hope that's the case.

That's great news. It definitely doesn't look at all like the beefy setup we had with Helene. Hopefully the Low will move out quickly and not cause too much rain.

[Michele B]

Worth pointing out that the GFS has trackeable vorticity and cyclogenesis in 2-3 days. Considering that we were tracking the potential of Helene for over a week and a half, this one feels like it just snuck up on us.

Maybe it just seems that way because we were so focused on what Helene was doing and where she was going.

[underthwx]

This is an excerpt from NWS Atlanta morning forecast discussion referring to possible tropical development later next week in the Gulf of Mexico.......

"By next weekend there is a potential for tropical development yet
again in Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. The GFS has been wanting to develop a low pressure system in this region for a couple of model runs now. More concerning though is that a considerable chunk of EPS and GEFS members (> 50%) are also showing low pressure development. Any tropical activity that develops would likely move into the Gulf, where upper level ridging over the western Atlantic may eventually funnel it towards the north. The National Hurricane Center is giving this region a 50% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days."....

I think this will translate into what Xman57 has noted in earlier posts.....its looking as though at a minimum...deeper tropical moisture may possibly plague that region with unwanted rainfall...as our friends in the southeast... work to recover from the damage brought by Hurricane Helene....I hope that blue skies will prevail!...

[Jr0d]

Worth pointing out that the GFS has trackeable vorticity and cyclogenesis in 2-3 days. Considering that we were tracking the potential of Helene for over a week and a half, this one feels like it just snuck up on us.

Maybe it just seems that way because we were so focused on what Helene was doing and where she was going.

I noticed it starting to show up almost a week ago. Wednesday at work a few excited people were trying to tell me we have another hurricane coming next week...of course I tried to explain to them that far out computer models are just a guess and there is no system yet so its a bit premature to get excited about a computer simulated storm.

As we get closer to the potential genesis point of this one, the trend is a good one. Hopefully it will just be a frontal low that quickly exits to northeast and hopefully have little if any impact on the clean up and rebuilding efforts in the southeast states.

I do think the West Caribbean, southeast Gulf of Mexico still could give us another significant storm. I dont think 90L will be it.

[Frank P]

GFS 12z model run says what cold front? More GFS shenanigans me thinks!

[canes92]

Worth pointing out that the GFS has trackeable vorticity and cyclogenesis in 2-3 days. Considering that we were tracking the potential of Helene for over a week and a half, this one feels like it just snuck up on us.

Maybe it just seems that way because we were so focused on what Helene was doing and where she was going.

I noticed it starting to show up almost a week ago. Wednesday at work a few excited people were trying to tell me we have another hurricane coming next week...of course I tried to explain to them that far out computer models are just a guess and there is no system yet so its a bit premature to get excited about a computer simulated storm.

As we get closer to the potential genesis point of this one, the trend is a good one. Hopefully it will just be a frontal low that quickly exits to northeast and hopefully have little if any impact on the clean up and rebuilding efforts in the southeast states.

I do think the West Caribbean, southeast Gulf of Mexico still could give us another significant storm. I dont think 90L will be it.

What? These folks want damage, flooding, and increased home owners insurance rates??

[otowntiger]

 https://x.com/bmcnoldy/status/1840360317508899242

The good thing is all, or the vast majority appear to be pretty weak- i.e. weak TS’s or TD’s. Just a couple seem to make it to cat 1 status, if I’m not mistaken.

[hurricanehunter69]

I don't see a cold front passing through the N gulf coast anytime soon either, whilst looking at Mimic TPW. The NHC has been insistent on a NW to North track with this thing. Not buying a hard right turn to Florida. If I lived in Mississippi and or Alabama I'd be paying close attention. Can't tell you how many arguments at work about it NOT going to Texas. As for intensity....we don't have a summer environment here on the N gulf coast but we don't have a Fall environment either...

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Frank P]

Moisture building in the extreme SW Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

Trend overnight is for some rain for Florida which is certainly a great thing. Still many in northern FL without power.

Rain without wind and surge would be a tremendous thing. Especially since wet season end looms in a couple to few weeks. I’ll take a good rain on the peninsula for a thousand Ken.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is all great news. So glad that models have backed off a bit. Florida doesn't need another hurricane. I think we've had enough landfalling hurricanes for the season.