ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Latest Recon obs appear to show that the center is probably inland on the N coast of Honduras.

[cycloneye]

They will go up on the winds in next advisory.

URNT15 KNHC 150154
AF304 0319A SARA HDOB 38 20241115
014430 1655N 08457W 9249 00744 0069 +212 +200 060047 047 034 005 00
014500 1654N 08459W 9252 00742 0069 +213 +198 062048 048 035 008 00
014530 1653N 08501W 9250 00741 0069 +210 +202 059048 048 035 011 00
014600 1652N 08502W 9253 00739 //// +180 //// 055049 050 037 024 01
014630 1652N 08504W 9249 00744 0075 +183 //// 049047 050 039 017 01
014700 1651N 08506W 9254 00738 //// +186 //// 049044 046 034 015 01
014730 1650N 08508W 9254 00733 0070 +184 //// 052045 046 033 009 01
014800 1649N 08510W 9253 00733 0068 +189 //// 051046 047 033 008 01
014830 1649N 08512W 9254 00730 0063 +201 +192 049048 050 034 006 00
014900 1648N 08514W 9250 00733 0058 +213 +189 050048 050 036 006 00
014930 1647N 08516W 9252 00732 0058 +209 +198 050047 048 038 005 00
015000 1646N 08517W 9246 00734 0060 +196 //// 049050 051 036 006 01
015030 1646N 08519W 9251 00729 0054 +209 //// 043050 052 035 008 01
015100 1644N 08521W 9248 00733 0056 +201 //// 052046 051 033 006 05
015130 1643N 08520W 9261 00717 //// +171 //// 051046 046 049 057 01
015200 1642N 08519W 9243 00734 //// +164 //// 047047 049 052 051 01
015230 1641N 08518W 9242 00734 0054 +184 //// 048047 049 046 041 01
015300 1639N 08517W 9252 00724 0050 +213 +191 046043 045 036 004 00
015330 1638N 08516W 9254 00721 0049 +206 //// 047042 043 036 002 01
015400 1637N 08515W 9251 00721 0047 +210 +192 050043 044 034 003 00

[NDG]

They will go up on the winds in next advisory.

URNT15 KNHC 150154
AF304 0319A SARA HDOB 38 20241115
014430 1655N 08457W 9249 00744 0069 +212 +200 060047 047 034 005 00
014500 1654N 08459W 9252 00742 0069 +213 +198 062048 048 035 008 00
014530 1653N 08501W 9250 00741 0069 +210 +202 059048 048 035 011 00
014600 1652N 08502W 9253 00739 //// +180 //// 055049 050 037 024 01
014630 1652N 08504W 9249 00744 0075 +183 //// 049047 050 039 017 01
014700 1651N 08506W 9254 00738 //// +186 //// 049044 046 034 015 01
014730 1650N 08508W 9254 00733 0070 +184 //// 052045 046 033 009 01
014800 1649N 08510W 9253 00733 0068 +189 //// 051046 047 033 008 01
014830 1649N 08512W 9254 00730 0063 +201 +192 049048 050 034 006 00
014900 1648N 08514W 9250 00733 0058 +213 +189 050048 050 036 006 00
014930 1647N 08516W 9252 00732 0058 +209 +198 050047 048 038 005 00
015000 1646N 08517W 9246 00734 0060 +196 //// 049050 051 036 006 01
015030 1646N 08519W 9251 00729 0054 +209 //// 043050 052 035 008 01
015100 1644N 08521W 9248 00733 0056 +201 //// 052046 051 033 006 05
015130 1643N 08520W 9261 00717 //// +171 //// 051046 046 049 057 01
015200 1642N 08519W 9243 00734 //// +164 //// 047047 049 052 051 01
015230 1641N 08518W 9242 00734 0054 +184 //// 048047 049 046 041 01
015300 1639N 08517W 9252 00724 0050 +213 +191 046043 045 036 004 00
015330 1638N 08516W 9254 00721 0049 +206 //// 047042 043 036 002 01
015400 1637N 08515W 9251 00721 0047 +210 +192 050043 044 034 003 00

Maybe up to 50 mph, LLC is moving inland as I type this.

[psyclone]

In a season that featured plenty of rapid escalations...it's nice to have a rapid de escalation. No doubt this system would have gone nuts without land interference.

[Gums]

Salute!

For some reason, I am not seeing a lot of forecasts that diminish Sara.

Guess we wait a day or so, huh?

Gums...

[HurricaneRyan]

We're still hyperactive confirmed with Sara though, right?

[Hurricane2022]

We're still hyperactive confirmed with Sara though, right?

YES.

[AtlanticWind]

Seems like it could be reforming a center farther north off the coast now
from looking at recent sat. loops

[chaser1]

Seems like it could be reforming a center farther north off the coast now
from looking at recent sat. loops

I was thinking the very same thing.

[GCANE]

Going out on a limb and thinking Sara will be stronger than currently forecast.

[underthwx]

In a season that featured plenty of rapid escalations...it's nice to have a rapid de escalation. No doubt this system would have gone nuts without land interference.

True that. But damage done nonetheless, with potentially catastrophic flash flooding occurring in Honduras and Belize. So my thoughts are with our friends there in Sara affected areas.

[abajan]

In a season that featured plenty of rapid escalations...it's nice to have a rapid de escalation. No doubt this system would have gone nuts without land interference.

True that. But damage done nonetheless, with potentially catastrophic flash flooding occurring in Honduras and Belize. So my thoughts are with our friends there in Sara affected areas.

Indeed. Way too much focus is placed on windspeeds with not nearly enough of it being placed on inland flooding.

[crimi481]

Sara is expanding. Ya think?

[Stormlover70]

Looks like just rain and some gusty winds for my area. They said 30's in north Florida next week. Looks like the season may finally be over.

Low confidence in the extended range, as the
evolution/positioning of both the trough and ridge will likely
play a key role on steering whatever remnant energy/deep layer
moisture remains from what is currently Tropical Storm Sara.
Based on the current NHC track forecast of the storm dissipating
over the Yucatan peninsula, model guidance indicates that whatever
remnant energy/moisture associated with the tropical system is
expected to move off the Yucatan peninsula Monday night or
Tuesday, and move east to northeast ahead of the trough and
around the backside of the U/L ridge toward the Florida peninsula.
This has the potential to impact west central and/or southwest
Florida Tuesday night or Wednesday, and will have to be monitored
closely. These types of systems can still produce severe
weather/tornadoes given the right conditions. A cold front will
likely push across west central and southwest Florida Wednesday
night or Thursday associated with an east coast trough with much
cooler drier air advecting across the region.

[Teban54]

Certainly looks like something that would have been bombing out if not for land interaction.

[cycloneye]

Hugging the coast.

AL, 19, 2024111512, , BEST, 0, 161N, 857W, 45, 997, TS

[verruckt]

Looks like just rain and some gusty winds for my area. They said 30's in north Florida next week. Looks like the season may finally be over.

Low confidence in the extended range, as the
evolution/positioning of both the trough and ridge will likely
play a key role on steering whatever remnant energy/deep layer
moisture remains from what is currently Tropical Storm Sara.
Based on the current NHC track forecast of the storm dissipating
over the Yucatan peninsula, model guidance indicates that whatever
remnant energy/moisture associated with the tropical system is
expected to move off the Yucatan peninsula Monday night or
Tuesday, and move east to northeast ahead of the trough and
around the backside of the U/L ridge toward the Florida peninsula.
This has the potential to impact west central and/or southwest
Florida Tuesday night or Wednesday, and will have to be monitored
closely. These types of systems can still produce severe
weather/tornadoes given the right conditions. A cold front will
likely push across west central and southwest Florida Wednesday
night or Thursday associated with an east coast trough with much
cooler drier air advecting across the region.

I'm starting the think this storm might actually create quite a bit of tornadoes across Florida given the conditions and more importantly, timing.

You have warm humid air from this system clashing up against a cold front with the potential for lots of horizontal shear. Akin to (but not exactly) how tornadoes form on the plains.

[Sciencerocks]

[N2FSU]

Seems like it could be reforming a center farther north off the coast now
from looking at recent sat. loops

NHC Discussion kind of hints at this possibility:

Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[emeraldislenc]

I think this storm could have exploded if it had tracked over area south of Cayman Islands. The rain has to be devastating in parts of Central America .