2026 ENSO Updates

[Kingarabian]

FYI the PDO tends to warm during winter and early spring periods. Regardless of phase. But it would be a big step if we can see an actual positive reading soon.

According to NOAA, the pdo has actually gone further negative since December. January recorded a monthly reading of -1.19 vs -0.98 back in December:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Whether this changes for Febuary remains to be seen, but the waters off Japan have been relentlessly warm for the past several years which has made any transition to a proper +pdo difficult.

We could see similar or warmer values over the next few months. But yeah the negative streak continues.

[Kingarabian]

FYI the PDO tends to warm during winter and early spring periods. Regardless of phase. But it would be a big step if we can see an actual positive reading soon.

According to NOAA, the pdo has actually gone further negative since December. January recorded a monthly reading of -1.19 vs -0.98 back in December:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Whether this changes for Febuary remains to be seen, but the waters off Japan have been relentlessly warm for the past several years which has made any transition to a proper +pdo difficult.

Yeah the stripe of warmth emanating from Japan is definitely muddling things a bit. We'll have to see if that fades eventually, then we'll likely start to see the PDO index approach positive levels.

Fwiw the CanSIPS, NMME and seasonal Euro actually show the "warm blob" persisting despite +PMM arising. It's a bit of a strange look, could continue to weigh the PDO index down if that's the case.
https://i.imgur.com/LSYr3xf.png
https://i.imgur.com/QFEc5SI.png
https://i.imgur.com/DSaobF2.png

Maybe something similar to 2023. A negative PDO due to the warm Japan waters but we still see an El Nino.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

According to NOAA, the pdo has actually gone further negative since December. January recorded a monthly reading of -1.19 vs -0.98 back in December:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Whether this changes for Febuary remains to be seen, but the waters off Japan have been relentlessly warm for the past several years which has made any transition to a proper +pdo difficult.

Yeah the stripe of warmth emanating from Japan is definitely muddling things a bit. We'll have to see if that fades eventually, then we'll likely start to see the PDO index approach positive levels.

Fwiw the CanSIPS, NMME and seasonal Euro actually show the "warm blob" persisting despite +PMM arising. It's a bit of a strange look, could continue to weigh the PDO index down if that's the case.
https://i.imgur.com/LSYr3xf.png
https://i.imgur.com/QFEc5SI.png
https://i.imgur.com/DSaobF2.png

Maybe something similar to 2023. A negative PDO due to the warm Japan waters but we still see an El Nino.

Yeah I ultimately don't think it will significantly impede the transition to El Niño in the end. We're still well on track for one, the subsurface warmth/downwelling KW is too obvious to ignore at this point.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a substantial IO WWB in the forecast. Will be key to see it transition to the MC and the WPAC. CFS shows supports this in the MJO charts.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 2/9/26 hazs niño 3.4 at -0.9C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Iceresistance]

I think the La Nina is almost dead

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bke7A.png

[cycloneye]

The PDO factor.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/2020184495882932455

Due to these latest anomalies, I’ll be a little surprised if January’s PDO index results don’t flip to positive, even if it's just slightly. We should find out on this forthcoming Monday morning around 10AM.

And even if it does trend positive over the next couple of months, I’m beginning to have some doubts about what the atmospheric response will be for my region later this year going into 2027 even if we can achieve a +PDO/+ENSO combo later on this year after some of the discussions between Ntwx and USTropics a few pages back.

Still the january data has not come out in this site.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

[869MB]

The PDO factor.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/2020184495882932455

Due to these latest anomalies, I’ll be a little surprised if January’s PDO index results don’t flip to positive, even if it's just slightly. We should find out on this forthcoming Monday morning around 10AM.

And even if it does trend positive over the next couple of months, I’m beginning to have some doubts about what the atmospheric response will be for my region later this year going into 2027 even if we can achieve a +PDO/+ENSO combo later on this year after some of the discussions between Ntwx and USTropics a few pages back.

Still the january data has not come out in this site.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO

Interesting stuff, because NOAA has clearly has updated their PDO chart with the -1.19 value for January 2026. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[cycloneye]

The RONI may alter things with the data about ENSO.

 https://x.com/EliotJacobson/status/2020943710557700393



 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2021045716584702454