95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE "DELTA" THAT WE ARE WAITING FOR.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

No doubt in my mind this will be Delta soon

[cycloneye]

ATLC STORM WARNING...

.LOW PRES NEAR 31N40W 986 MB MOVING SSW 10 TO 15 KT. OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES WINDS 35
TO 50 KT SEAS 18 TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
480 NM SW QUADRANT...300 NM S QUADRANT...AND 150 NM E QUADRANT
OF LOW PRES WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...NEAR 27N40W 991 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM
S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES WINDS 35 TO 45 KT SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...NEAR 26N38W 996 MB. WITHIN 300 NM OF LOW PRES WINDS 25
TO 35 KT SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.



High Seas Forecast.

This has to be Delta by 10 PM EST or 4 AM EST.

[cycloneye]

22/2345 UTC 29.8N 40.9W T2.0/2.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD took out the ST now is only T meaning not subtropical.

[Damar91]

How far west do you guys think this can make it?

[Weatherfreak000]

Haha,



So Matt, interesting developments here right?





Has a STRONG chance of being Delta now, if not inevitable.

[P.K.]

Wow, I'll have to check this first thing in the morning then. Not bad for something over approximately 23C ocean.

[tallywx]

Wow, I'll have to check this first thing in the morning then. Not bad for something over approximately 23C ocean.

Vince #2. 79F water temp. minimum be darned.

[cycloneye]

FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051123 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051123 0000 051123 1200 051124 0000 051124 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 40.9W 27.5N 40.9W 25.1N 39.0W 25.1N 35.8W
BAMM 30.0N 40.9W 28.2N 41.3W 26.5N 40.5W 25.9N 38.7W
A98E 30.0N 40.9W 28.5N 41.4W 25.3N 41.3W 22.4N 37.9W
LBAR 30.0N 40.9W 28.7N 40.9W 27.6N 40.7W 27.1N 40.3W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 49KTS 49KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 49KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051125 0000 051126 0000 051127 0000 051128 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 33.6W 31.3N 32.2W 34.2N 31.9W 36.6N 26.5W
BAMM 26.4N 37.3W 27.9N 36.9W 30.4N 38.0W 35.0N 38.6W
A98E 20.7N 34.8W 16.9N 30.6W 16.4N 26.9W 17.8N 25.3W
LBAR 26.8N 40.1W 27.6N 39.3W 29.3N 37.7W 31.7N 34.0W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 52KTS 53KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 52KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.0N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 31.2N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 215DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 31.6N LONM24 = 40.1W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 250NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 250NM



Tropical Storm but it not says Delta.But they can classifie it at 10 PM with this information from the models.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is now looking MUCH better, with a good amount of convection forming around a center... getting VERY interesting...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who would have thought we would be looking at Delta on THANKSGIVING!!!

[Forecaster Colby]

Newest Dvorak is a T2.0!!

[jkt21787]

Newest Dvorak is a T2.0!!

No longer subtropical, but the number is down.

[Forecaster Colby]

The number is wrong, given that the 7:05 TWD has it as a 50kt+ gale.

[jkt21787]

The number is wrong, given that the 7:05 TWD has it as a 50kt+ gale.

The number is not "wrong". Thats what the satellites are estimating. Whether its accurate may be a different story, but the satellites don't agree. Nevertheless, if they classify, they will go with 45 kts which was in the model initialization at the top of last hour.

[Forecaster Colby]

Alright, the number was not correct in relation to surface conditions. And why would they initialize at 45kt when they just said:

SPECIAL FEATURE...
CENTRAL ATLC 986 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N40.5W DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND INTENSIFYING
DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION THE LOW HAS BEEN SEPARATING FROM
THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NORTH. A STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE
FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE..."DELTA"... OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER... STRONGEST IN THE NE QUADRANT.

[jkt21787]

Alright, the number was not correct in relation to surface conditions. And why would they initialize at 45kt when they just said:

SPECIAL FEATURE...
CENTRAL ATLC 986 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N40.5W DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND INTENSIFYING
DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION THE LOW HAS BEEN SEPARATING FROM
THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NORTH. A STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE
FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE..."DELTA"... OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER... STRONGEST IN THE NE QUADRANT.

The models initialized at 45 kts. NHC almost always goes with whatever the models show if they don't have any other data to go with. I'm not saying they won't go higher, but I would have to imagine they will go with 45 kts and 982 mb given past actions by them.

Of course thats if its even classified Tonight. Who knows honestly. I personally think its about time to though, this seems to have enough subtropical/tropical characteristics now.

[brunota2003]

Dont think it'll be upgraded tonight, nothing on the latest update from the navy...

[JamesFromMaine2]

when they do upgrade it NEEDS to go to atleast 60kts in the first advis.!




Its almost a Hurricane IMO!!! Its even developing a Eye!

[HURAKAN]

I try to be very conservative with the NHC, but this is just too much.