Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

[Stratusxpeye]

things are heating up in here i see. over a system thats nothing. rain like this is just that rain. nothing tropical about it that i can see. Am i missing something here?

[JonathanBelles]

its in the GOM and its spinning and it has wind

[hurrican19]

KFDM Meteorologist --- Kerry Cooper ???

[GalvestonDuck]

things are heating up in here i see. over a system thats nothing. rain like this is just that rain. nothing tropical about it that i can see. Am i missing something here?

Doesn't matter if it develops, IMO. I like to understand the ones that do as well as the ones that don't (and why they don't).

[deltadog03]

the shear is on the decrease. I still don't know if it will really have a chance to develop. However, the rain will continue either way. To me this is just somewhat of a warning shot for what could happen early in the season.

[HURAKAN]

I think we may need #3 in here!!!

[Stratusxpeye]

things are heating up in here i see. over a system thats nothing. rain like this is just that rain. nothing tropical about it that i can see. Am i missing something here?

Doesn't matter if it develops, IMO. I like to understand the ones that do as well as the ones that don't (and why they don't).

Understood and I agree but no reason for some to qural over wether its tropical or wether its a TD or not when It's clearly not. It is a nice lil system and if it were100 miles out we would most likely see our first TS come ashore in the coming week. But it is a warning signal as to what could hapean and it is a nice little system just not tropical at this point.

[cycloneye]

I think we may need #3 in here!!!

Yep,it looks likely as it for sure will arrive at the limit of 199 replies.

[tailgater]

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
Location on where circulation is


Man you sure are stirring the pot.


Cooking up another batch this evening huh.,

[NONAME]

TWC said some kinda of tropical Wave thing.

[JonathanBelles]

PARTY IN THE CHATROOM!!!

[skysummit]

TWC said some kinda of tropical Wave thing.

There's your first mistake.

[wxman57]

The 6pm surface obs indicate that the weak surface trof is moving into the coast. Convection is weakening, but I suspect another big round will fire up on the coast tonight. General winds along the coast are in the 10-15 kt range.

While this system may produce a good bit of rain, it's in no way close to becoming a TD. Doesn't even warrant an invest at this point. Just much-needed rain for Texas. I certainly wouldn't advocate calling any rain-maker a TD just to get the public's attention. For one thing, I'd have to begin 12-hour shifts for my hurricane team! I'll already be at work from 6:30 am to 9:30pm tomorrow. Hmmm, a 12-hr shift means a shorter work day for me.

[wxman57]

I think we may need #3 in here!!!

Yep,it looks likely as it for sure will arrive at the limit of 199 replies.

Seems everyone can't wait for that first system of 2006. I have a feeling it may not be until late July or early August before the first TS forms. Conditions across the tropics are nowhere near like they were at the start of 2005. Lots of shear, no waves above 10N. All in all, fairly normal for June 1.

[gatorcane]

Seems everyone can't wait for that first system of 2006. I have a feeling it may not be until late July or early August before the first TS forms. Conditions across the tropics are nowhere near like they were at the start of 2005. Lots of shear, no waves above 10N. All in all, fairly normal for June 1.

I would have to agree with that - but of course we will see.

[Opal storm]

I think we may need #3 in here!!!

Yep,it looks likely as it for sure will arrive at the limit of 199 replies.

Seems everyone can't wait for that first system of 2006. I have a feeling it may not be until late July or early August before the first TS forms. Conditions across the tropics are nowhere near like they were at the start of 2005. Lots of shear, no waves above 10N. All in all, fairly normal for June 1.

Im not expecting Alberto to arrive as early as Arlene did but I would be suprised if Alberto didn't form til August.Conditions now are unfavorable but that doesn't mean that will stay the case for the next month or so.

[wxman57]

Im not expecting Alberto to arrive as early as Arlene did but I would be suprised if Alberto didn't form til August.Conditions now are unfavorable but that doesn't mean that will stay the case for the next month or so.

Quite true. It will just take one disturbance that moves into the "wrong" place and we could have a developing storm any time in the next few months.

[Tampa_God]

So the Low has went over land, so no chance of anything forming. Mid-June we will see something form

[Starburst]

Not jumping on the gun, i've just seen this happen to many times, same setup. I know what the winds have to be to be classified as a Depression. All i'm saying is Rainfall is the main event with a Depression anyway. I've been through alot of TD's and wind was NEVER a factor. Some areas have seen more rain with this than with a Depression or TS. Just my opinion.

No...I know you are a met...but even in TDs wind is a MAJOR factor...with all of the rainfall you know how easy it would be for ONLY TD force winds to blow trees over and into roadways or peoples homes? Those trees do represent a major factor and can kill people instantly as they hit the cars or homes the people are in...I am not doing that only because you are a met...I will do it to everyone...so I'm not picking on you just because you are a met
Also, the wind may not of been a factor in the Tds you went thru...regardless it is a major factor...as is rain...

I have to disagree, brunota. A tropical depression has winds of 38mph or less and I've never heard of 30 to 38 mph winds blowing down trees. We get gusts in the 30's and even 40's during strong thunderstorms sometimes and I can't recall a tree ever falling with those winds. Maybe a few limbs and leaves scattered about. IMO, a TD's threat is rainfall, not wind. I'd say the same thing for a mild tropical storm as well. At some point, the winds become a factor in a tropical storm, but I don't know exactly what strength that would be.

Allison was a tropical storm and the winds were no factor whatsoever, just torrential rainfall. I could give many more examples of tropical storms where winds were no issue, and I know of no TD's where winds caused significant damage.

I must agree with KDFM and Southerngale Tropical depression winds are nothing. The absolute worst winds from a TD would blow some leaves off your trees and a few twigs and that is about it. We had 40mph wind gusts with a thunderstorm here the other night and we had no damage at all. You actually have higher winds than a TD when your first cold front blows in. The major threat from a TD is torrential rain and flooding.

[wxman57]

So the Low has went over land, so no chance of anything forming. Mid-June we will see something form

The upper-level low has moved inland and is north of Victoria. There is no low level circulation, just a weak trof. This trof is also moving into the TX coast. Winds along the coast and offshore have dropped to 5-10 kts as thunderstorms have diminished. Chance of tropical development is quite low, close to zero. But the system will still be strong enough to produce more heavy rain for the TX coast tonight and on Thursday.