Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[Opal storm]

I agree on the detachment off of the trough lifting out because I saw the sat of the US which will leave 90L either moving northward or just sitting down there.

if it sits down there long enough it may miss the trof and FL could be spared. If that happened, then the Central and Western Gulf coasts would potentially be at risk.

OMG,we would have like 200 threads on this thing if that were to happen.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree on the detachment off of the trough lifting out because I saw the sat of the US which will leave 90L either moving northward or just sitting down there.

if it sits down there long enough it may miss the trof and FL could be spared. If that happened, then the Central and Western Gulf coasts would potentially be at risk.

But it does look to be moving slowly to the North...

yes, it looks like north and may be a tad west. I would say it's motion right now would be called DRIFTING NNW

[dhweather]

This area certainly defines "tropical soup".

Lots of stuff ongoing, and it's probably going to spin up in the next day or two.

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

You can see the LLC on this SAT - moving N-NW. Everyone is focusing on the MLC that is racing off to the N-NE near 19N82.5 W. Look at the shear going on in the NE quad of the convection. Ain't no way a LLC is gonna form in that environment. The broad LLC is still there at 18N 85 W. What is limiting the LLC at present is some dry air entrainment to the NW and the shear axis to the NE. The shear axis will lift out to the NE leaving the broad LLC to gather strength slowly tomorrow. Anyway, that's my take at the moment.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

I agree with you Ronjon, this buoy even proves it further, it has increasing NNE winds and pressure contiues to fall as it appears to be just north of the low, check the coordinates.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[boca]

Where's the 8pm discussion.

[cycloneye]

Where's the 8pm discussion.

They are a bit late but when that product is out it will be posted at the discussion thread not here.

[boca]

Thankyou Luis

[rockyman]

I just ran this visible image through my "negative glowing edges" filter and came up with the second picture...maybe this makes it easier to spot the low level center? Sorry for posting the images, but not sure how else to compare side-by-side...also sorry for anyone scared of worms

[gatorcane]

great pictures I think it nails where the center is!!!

[Frank P]

boy you can't this much entertainment with 100 cable channels...

here my unprofessional observation looking at the latest vis sat loops...

best I can tell the LLC is around 18.7 and 84.8, and my guess is that is where the center will stay... system appears to be drifting off to the NNW or even slighly w of NNW... very slowly

latest vis sat pixs as mentioned in some earlier posts shows the convection on the increase in this general area...

where it goes remains to be seen....

but know this, they aways want to surprise us... this one will too...

I do enjoy the Texas vs Florida debates I might add....

[aerojad]

Ahh, time for another long summer of making images... it's hurricane season once again!

Not an offical forecast, obviously, but here's my take on where it is, and where it will head if it forms - and nothing shocking, just going by seasonal norms here.

[Bgator]

The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)

[HURAKAN]

Just a question, as the system develops and moves out of the Caribbean, will it take the trough with it?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)

I think that center sounds about right to me.

[Rainband]

The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)

I will go with the NHC. I seriously doubt they are guessing

[Ivanhater]

The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)

I think that center sounds about right to me.

to me as well

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just a question, as the system develops and moves out of the Caribbean, will it take the trough with it?

I think the biggest question is the strength of the trof. I have a feeling that the models are making it too strong and bringing it too far south for mid June. Just my opinion. We will see what happens...

[gatorcane]

The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)

I think that center sounds about right to me.

to me as well

that would put it a little NE of the previous position earlier today.

[rockyman]

That center is even further southwest than the worms suggested

[Ivanhater]

The TWD just came out and they say the center is near 18/85.5, i do not personally agree, but for now thats there best guess!(the nHC)

I think that center sounds about right to me.

to me as well

that would put it a little NE of the previous position earlier today.

I wasn't on earlier so I'm not sure where it was before