91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Aquawind]

This sysytem was more benefitial to the whole peninsula of Florida being it was week. It did enhance rains down here for a couple days more than I expected. Were back to having a real swamp again..

[CHRISTY]

This sysytem was more benefitial to the whole peninsula of Florida being it was week. It did enhance rains down here for a couple days more than I expected. Were back to having a real swamp again..

yes it aquawind....it brought some much needed rainfall for us.

[mtm4319]

000
WONT41 KNHC 271133
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[Aquawind]

It's Alive!!!

Poor NE with all of the recent rains...bummage hopefully it pushes out to sea before it get's there..

RECON

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 26 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 27/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 27/1400Z
D. 33.0N 78.5W
E. 27/1530Z TO 2000Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE INLAND AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

3. MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 26/1800Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 26/1230Z.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is already a depression...That is obvious IMO..I think we will have Beryl Shortly..

[Aquawind]

QSCAT looks like it's trying..

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[AJC3]

This is already a depression...That is obvious IMO..I think we will have Beryl Shortly..

There's no way you can say that it's "obviously" a TD. Show definitive proof that there's a closed surface low. The observations don't show it.

[AJC3]

QSCAT looks like it's trying..

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

Keep in mind, that QS pass is pretty much showing what the surface obs were at the time - namely that there was already a surface low inland near the GA-SC border (KSAV)

[mtm4319]

latest buoys -

[Aquawind]

Righto so were looking at the barbs further SSE over te water which have not closed yet..

[Thunder44]

They have pressure at 1008mb.

838
WHXX01 KWBC 271209
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060627 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060627 1200 060628 0000 060628 1200 060629 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.1N 77.8W 35.3N 76.9W 39.5N 75.1W 44.6N 71.8W
BAMM 32.1N 77.8W 34.9N 76.8W 37.9N 75.1W 41.3N 72.4W
A98E 32.1N 77.8W 34.8N 75.9W 38.3N 73.3W 43.9N 71.0W
LBAR 32.1N 77.8W 35.2N 76.7W 39.6N 75.4W 45.8N 72.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060629 1200 060630 1200 060701 1200 060702 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 49.3N 65.8W 52.3N 48.5W 45.3N 34.6W 35.8N 29.6W
BAMM 45.1N 69.0W 51.5N 58.1W 53.9N 46.2W 54.6N 35.3W
A98E 50.2N 64.4W 57.8N 48.3W 56.6N 33.1W 56.0N 23.1W
LBAR 51.5N 63.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 61KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 36KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 77.8W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 47DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 28.1N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

The low center is well inland in S. Carolina. Pressures offshore are 1015mb with straight SSE flow. Just a clump of tstms, nothing more. No chance of development.

[mtm4319]

[beachbum_al]

So just looks like a bunch of rain for the East Coast.

[Aquawind]

The low center is well inland in S. Carolina. Pressures offshore are 1015mb with straight SSE flow. Just a clump of tstms, nothing more. No chance of development.

All right let's break it up here folks..

Chris wants to go on a bike ride..

[Aquawind]

So just looks like a bunch of rain for the East Coast.

Serious Soakage..

[CrazyC83]

I still think it will run out of water before it can develop...anyway, even if it does, I think it will remain TD2.

[Stormcenter]

The low center is well inland in S. Carolina. Pressures offshore are 1015mb with straight SSE flow. Just a clump of tstms, nothing more. No chance of development.

Then why was this issued if the low is inland like you are saying??

000
WONT41 KNHC 271133
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

I'd give it a 50% chance of development. The atmosphere is right for it, but it doesn't have much time.

[ThunderMate]

lol, thats what i was thinking stormcenter.