99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[bvigal]

so there is no Low?

I think what's being said is there is no low apparent from quickscat or obvious from satellite.
8pm TWD (no low mentioned)
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED TO 29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 9N33W. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. THIS WAVE HAD BEEN MISPLACED ACCIDENTALLY AT 20W/21W ON THE 27/1200 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. ITS CURRENT POSITION AGREES MUCH MORE WITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

10:30 TWO (low mentione):
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (I think the 5:30 TWO also mentioned a low.)

By morning there will be another scat pass (if it doesn't miss), and then visible imagery.

[Cyclenall]

This is about to go through a pocket of increased shear.

The NHC says:

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

They would not say that if there is a pocket of increased shear ahead.[/quote]

[windycity]

I was just going to write "if Derek found a low, theres a low", but who knows, maybe tomarrow!! I think wxman and Derek better get all the sleep they can get, cause its going to get crazy in no time! Can you say Chris?

[HurricaneHunter914]

We might be saying Hurricane Chris (It is possible with the warm SSTs and conditions becoming gradual favorable).

[Grease Monkey]

Jim Cantore seemed pretty optimistic about the developement of the invest on the TWC 11pm est update. He mentioned it's outflow needs to improve.

[gatorcane]

I know its early to speculate where it will end up, but certainly I don't see a fish out of this one. The Azores and Bermuda High are just too strong. In fact the long-term 384 hour GFS, although does not show this Low, would indicate 99L would make it into the Leewards and continue westward or westnorthwestward and approach the SE US Coast...that is based on the synoptic setup it is predicting that will guide this invest along westward.

of course it is early to say

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jim Cantore seemed pretty optimistic about the developement of the invest on the TWC 11pm est update. He mentioned it's outflow needs to improve.

it seems like TWC is always optimistic and then the next thing you know the system becomes a TD.

[gatorcane]

Jim Cantore seemed pretty optimistic about the developement of the invest on the TWC 11pm est update. He mentioned it's outflow needs to improve.

it seems like TWC is always optimistic and then the next thing you know the system becomes a TD.

Wouldn't surprise me if Jim Cantore is sent on a ship down there to see what it is like - he always seems to be where the action is at!

[Grease Monkey]

Jim Cantore seemed pretty optimistic about the developement of the invest on the TWC 11pm est update. He mentioned it's outflow needs to improve.

it seems like TWC is always optimistic and then the next thing you know the system becomes a TD.

I meant optimistic in the tropical system's favor.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

According to this map (whether accurate or not) it appears 99L will go under increasing shear and decreasing shear, but mostly decreasing shear which should help with development.

[Scorpion]

Hope this doesn't interfere with my cruise vacation in the long run.

[brunota2003]

Ok...from what I SEE if I had to rate the outflow, NW and SE sides: Good, NE side: Fair, SW side: Poor/restricted/none Anyone else want to try to rate them? I was looking at the NRL Image...of course that could change in a day or so...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Are you headed for the Caribbean?

[Scorpion]

Are you headed for the Caribbean?

Yes, on August 6.

[JonathanBelles]

i dont even try taking cruises after the last week of may!! i might try in november though

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jim Cantore seemed pretty optimistic about the developement of the invest on the TWC 11pm est update. He mentioned it's outflow needs to improve.

it seems like TWC is always optimistic and then the next thing you know the system becomes a TD.

I meant optimistic in the tropical system's favor.

oh, ok. lol. I just read optimisitic and saw "outflow needs to improve" and thought you meant that he was trying to say it wouldn't develop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Are you headed for the Caribbean?

Yes, on August 6.

uh-oh. You better be praying this doesn't develop.

[HurricaneHunter914]

There are too many tropical waves in the Caribbean for a cruise to go through.

[Opal storm]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

According to this map (whether accurate or not) it appears 99L will go under increasing shear and decreasing shear, but mostly decreasing shear which should help with development.

Looks like it's about to run into a small area of increased wind shear.So don't be too surprised if this isn't a TD tomorrow morning.But the road looks a lot smoother in the Carib.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

WOW, look at how high the Maximum Wind Intensity is if conditions were perfect