Western Caribbean Wave (Ex 91L)

[weatherwindow]

Could we please get back on topic and stay on topic? I certainly hope nobody popped on here to get information on 91L, only to waste their time with the last few pages. We have an OT forum - feel free to discuss plagiarism, grammar, etc. over there.

.....agreed southern...now back on topic...per the 205am TWD, a 1010 mb low has reformed along the wave axis at 14N 59W...91L fights on. TAFB surface analysis carries the potential for trop cyclone formation thru 72 hour as the system moves west toward the western carib...IF the system develops, models suggest a broad gomer threat.....rich

[mobilebay]

Looking at pressures in the Lesser Antilles there seems to be a very broad area of low pressure. Almost all reporting stations reporting about 1012MB. I can't detect anything that remotely looks like a surface circulation though, even on Martinique radar. JMO

[mobilebay]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100852
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO
25 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN/RRG

[mobilebay]

Also TAFB is still analyzing a 1011 MB low over the Lesser Antilles. This is the new 06Z surface map.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

[Sanibel]

Another center burst is happening, but very weak. The system is acting like shear-induced convection off a wave with a weak surface feature.

Will probably do a Chris and crash into the islands.

[Nimbus]

We are back in BLOB watching mode again apparantly. Persistant convection south of PR this morning but as we have seen this season broad shallow low pressure areas without gradient don't spin up very fast. May take a couple days to for elements to converge again. Perhaps near Jamaica where shear from the south typically diminishes.

[kenl01]

There's nothing going on. Enjoy your day

[Thunder44]

From this 8:05 TWD:

...Special feature...
a strong well defined tropical wave is at 60w south of 20n
moving west 20 kt...entering the eastern Caribbean Sea.
A surface 1011 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
13.5n. The system currently is poorly organized. It still has
the potential to develop into a tropical depression during the
next 24 to 36 hours. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today
if necessary. The cloud top temperatures in the area of deep
convective precipitation from 14n to 17n between 68w and 72w
have warmed during the last 4 to 6 hours. A new area of
numerous strong showers and thunderstorms has developed from
15n to 16.5n between 63w and 65w. Widely scattered moderate
showers to isolated strong thunderstorms cover the eastern
Caribbean Sea islands from Trinidad to Barbados...and from
Martinique to Guadeloupe. Expect showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds to tropical storm force in squalls to spread
across the Caribbean Sea from east to west during the next
few days.

[Stormavoider]

Yesterday the consensus of posters seemed to agree that the primary obstacle to development was excessive forward speed.

It seems to be moving a little slower this morning!

[Bane]

No, it isn't. It's moving at 25 mph.

[rockyman]

25mph IS slower than yesterday

[bvigal]

I don't know if this is ever going to develop down the road, but I hope not. We are sure breathing a sigh of relief here today! Too bad, so sad, RIP 91L!!

[Bane]

25mph IS slower than yesterday

I stand corrected. 31 mph is faster than 25.

[Stormavoider]

From this 8:05 TWD:

...Special feature...
a strong well defined tropical wave is at 60w south of 20n
moving west 20 kt

20 kt =23 mph

[ConvergenceZone]

hehe, I"m surprised people are still watching this. I actually finally deleted the floater off my bookmarks. It's so pathetic to watch it on life-support and dying a slow death. It's doing exactly what Chris did, just in a slightly different location. Next Invest will be the wave that just came off the African coast, although probably not until the end of the week.

[rockyman]

I'm surprised people are NOT still watching this...the NHC continues to say that a depression could develop...recon is still scheduled...low pressure is still present...I can't see a reason NOT to watch this

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 101400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 10 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKED FLYING ON THE TROPICAL WAVE CANCELED
BY NHC 10/1130Z


No recon for today.

[Stormavoider]

I guess haha is next.

[bvigal]

I hope they do fly recon today! It will be interesting to see WHERE the plane goes.

Edit: Ooops, well I guess we won't find out, will we?
I bet the "possible development" area gets dropped at 11am.

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at the link I posted below... If you noticed that convection in front of 91L was quickly sheared and pushed to the south.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Shear tendency indicates increasing shear ahead of 91L.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

This is indicated here by the an upper level trough in the vicinity.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

Unless this Upper Level trough moves out which it doesn't look like it is at this time.. Expect any convection moving westward with this tropical wave to be sheared apart.

This upper level trough is dug in looking at the water vapor.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

This thing doesn't have a chance until it reaches the western caribbean and BOC/Southern GOM.

Expect this wave to cause enhanced convection in the GOM as this wave should end up interacting with a short wave forecast to come down from the north into the southeast US.