Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[caribepr]

And days to go...watch and see grasshoppers

[WxGuy1]

And days to go...watch and see grasshoppers

Exactly -- wait and see. I'm surprised so many of you are giving location estimates for a storm that doesn't exist yet. The intensity and depth of any possible system directly feeds back into its path/motion, and we all know how bad intensity forecasts can be. We're over a week out for any part of this now-wave to come anywhere close to the US, so you might as well hold most track discussion until we at least get a TD. People will get unnecessarily nervous or unnecessarily blasé. It is good that there is at least SOME model agreement for this yet-undeveloped system, but even that has little value given it's undeveloped nature attm.

[SouthFloridawx]

312
WHXX01 KWBC 232300
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 0600 060824 1800 060825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 54.7W 11.2N 57.1W 11.5N 59.2W 11.8N 61.1W
BAMM 11.0N 54.7W 11.2N 57.5W 11.7N 59.9W 12.1N 62.1W
A98E 11.0N 54.7W 11.5N 58.2W 11.9N 61.4W 12.1N 64.2W
LBAR 11.0N 54.7W 11.2N 57.8W 11.7N 61.1W 12.1N 64.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800 060828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 62.9W 13.3N 66.5W 15.3N 70.7W 17.7N 74.8W
BAMM 12.8N 64.0W 14.2N 67.8W 16.2N 72.3W 18.9N 76.6W
A98E 12.2N 66.6W 13.0N 70.6W 14.3N 74.1W 16.6N 77.7W
LBAR 12.4N 68.0W 14.3N 73.5W 17.6N 76.3W 19.5N 79.3W
SHIP 55KTS 69KTS 80KTS 87KTS
DSHP 55KTS 69KTS 80KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 51.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 47.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[jhamps10]

yikes

Even if it is the ships, which can almost never be completely ruled out, but very questionable.

[SouthFloridawx]

999
AXNT20 KNHC 240003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 55W OR ABOUT 280 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. A 1012MB SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE NEAR 11N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 54W-62W.

[Windtalker1]

remember wilma's path? an charlie too?still a possible threat!

Wilma...Late October...totally different season...westerlies turned it. The fall is a very fluid season and subtropical highs are transient and the models have a hard time with them because of the rapid movement of shortwaves and longwave trofs.

Charlie-BIG trof in the Gulf.

I don't see a big trof and it's not fall.

Funny how "nobody" caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA

[johngaltfla]

Sorry for everyone else, but I hope it dissipates. Option 2 is to keep trucking NW or WNW or W away from me.

[Windtalker1]

So that's just south of Cuba I'm thinking?

skysummit,the red line is GFDL.

The Models will change even more in the coming days...maybe shift more north as it gets stronger.

[cajungal]

These models will keep flip flopping back and forth until something actually forms. And how many times they forecasted something to form and it just fizzled? It is end of August folks and the fat lady is far from singing yet.

[jhamps10]

or couldn't it shift south if it gets stronger? We really don't know right now, but if this develops, which appears highly possible if not likely it could go into the GOM. Where it goes after that we don't know, but hopefully it goes towards texas and then curves back NE towards Illinois since we really need some good rain, Not to be mean to our friends in the texas coast, cause I would never wish that on someone.

[johngaltfla]

Reminds me of where Edith formed....

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197106.asp

[PTrackerLA]

remember wilma's path? an charlie too?still a possible threat!

Wilma...Late October...totally different season...westerlies turned it. The fall is a very fluid season and subtropical highs are transient and the models have a hard time with them because of the rapid movement of shortwaves and longwave trofs.

Charlie-BIG trof in the Gulf.

I don't see a big trof and it's not fall.

Funny how "nobody" caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA

It was a ridiculously strong trough for the time of year. Our low temps dipped into the 50's in AUGUST! I wish we had them every year .

[curtadams]

Quickscat is out http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png Not much on the surface - some warping of flows but far from a closed circ.

[Sanibel]

Looks like we finally have a bull entering the arena.


Very similar to Charley.

[Evil Jeremy]

So that's just south of Cuba I'm thinking?

skysummit,the red line is GFDL.

The Models will change even more in the coming days...maybe shift more north as it gets stronger.

and north=florida

[crown]

I'd wager that the "center" of this system will not follow what the models (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88600&start=187) have been showing so far - across or close to Tobago and then across Grenada as a tropical storm.

This may yet be one of those classic cases where the models say 'that' way but the systems goes 'this' way.

Based on what the track has been this past day, I'd wager that the "center" will pass either over or slightly north of Barbados Thursday afternoon.

[MortisFL]

And days to go...watch and see grasshoppers

Exactly -- wait and see. I'm surprised so many of you are giving location estimates for a storm that doesn't exist yet. The intensity and depth of any possible system directly feeds back into its path/motion, and we all know how bad intensity forecasts can be. We're over a week out for any part of this now-wave to come anywhere close to the US, so you might as well hold most track discussion until we at least get a TD. People will get unnecessarily nervous or unnecessarily blasé. It is good that there is at least SOME model agreement for this yet-undeveloped system, but even that has little value given it's undeveloped nature attm.

Welcome to Storm2k

[Air Force Met]

Funny how "nobody" caught on to that big trof in the gulf to prepare the people better in Charlies path. Everyone was saying TAMPA

?????



The trof is what turned Charlie. If you look at landfall and forecasted track in terms of ACTUAL error...it was less than 40 nm! The error comes in he fact that the coast of Florida is shaped in one way...and the storm was moving another...so the slighted error in heading leads to a huge landfalling error....plus there were other factors invovled that caused Charlie to go in a little earlier.

Your talking like the landfall forecast 24 hours out was Alabama...and that is not the case. Again...the actual track error was small...it was the angle that worked against the people in the path of Charlie...not the forecast.

[Air Force Met]

and north=florida

Well the GFDL has shifted well to the south...

Still a ridge to contend with...so where it is going to be?

[Derek Ortt]

This is highly unlikely to hit the TUTT