TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[storms in NC]

Not by what I am looking at. Seem to be doing good with the shear and all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[KatDaddy]

It is 50MPH

[Mac]

Yeah, I'd like for someone to take a look at this sat presentation and to point out to me where shear is hurting this storm right now. Deep convection continues to fire and it appears he's trying to build the deeper convection over the nw quad over the LLC. This storm is improving its presentation, which is not what you see in a storm that is being "badly sheared." That's not to say that shear is not affecting this storm at all. Clearly there is shear out there. But it is not causing him any problems right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think it's getting anymore pounded than it did last night. They will probably fluctuations in intensity the next day or two, until the ULL moves further west and ridge builds into the NW Carribean. May see the LLC come out from to time to time, but the storm will probably survive. When it gets into the NW Carribean Monday or Tuesday it will probably take off to major hurricane status.

[perk]

Katdaddy i see your point about that graphic from accuweather being laughable. We're 6 or 7 days from a landfall. Now on a more serious note imagine you're from that part of Louisana that Rita hit and you saw that graphic. That could ruin a weekend.

[KatDaddy]

Yes! Very scary plots for the N Central GOM.

[Portastorm]

I guess I'm the clueless one as I find nothing "laughable" about Accuweather's map. Bold? Yes. Laughable? No.

[Mac]

Here's the thing, folks. Ernie has been persisting through some pretty unfavorable conditions. And despite these conditions, and especially the fairly considerable shear he has encountered, he blossomed during the dirurnal maximum last night. If he is able to maintain the deep convection he developed last night over the day today, watch for him to attain Cat 1 status over the diurnal max tonight as shear decreases and he approaches more favorable waters ahead. I then expect him to steadily intensify over the next two days and attain Cat 3 status as he is entering the GoM...if not before.

[Stormavoider]

It is 50MPH

A ship is seeing it.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=14.8N&lon1=70.2W&uom=E&dist=250&ot=A&time=3

[cycloneye]

12:00z Models Graphic.

[Stormcenter]

Come now guys, this is a sheared storm right now and also look what's still ahead.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Scorpion]

Come now guys, this is a sheared storm right now and also look what's still ahead.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Yes in this so called shear Ernesto dropped 7 mb and strengthened to 45 kts.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yes it is sheared, BUT is it BADLY SHEARED? Like is it going to get whammed just like Emma said? I don't think so.

[Winsurfer]

Katdaddy i see your point about that graphic from accuweather being laughable. We're 6 or 7 days from a landfall. Now on a more serious note imagine you're from that part of Louisana that Rita hit and you saw that graphic. That could ruin a weekend.

I am and it's not funny!

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr

[bucman1]

As exspected, 12:00z models all over the place-GFDL sees something the others don't?

[KatDaddy]

He goes the shift back W again with some of the models. Expect more over the next few days.

Also you can clear see the ULL moving W away from Jamaica.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[Mac]

He goes the shift back W again with some of the models. Expect more over the next few days.

Also you can clear see the ULL moving W away from Jamaica.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

And with it goes the shear...

[NESDIS Met]

Ernesto is having some difficulty generating significant convection west of its LLC, which is indicative of marginal shear...however, the shear is weakening and will, within the next 12 hours, cease to affect the system in a meaningful way. The caveat to this would be if the tropical upper tropospheric trough has an increased influence on the system (at the the current time this does not look like it will happen). So no, shear is not "pounding" Ernesto...in fact, we're forcasting a hurricane by this evening and a Cat 3 storm by tomorrow afternoon. Thereafter, in all likelihood Ernesto will approach or exceed Cat 4 for some period of time in the Central Gulf. At this point landfall intensity and location are up in the air.

[Mac]

hehehe Sounds a lot like my forecast (prematurely pats self on back) LOL