TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

I didn't see Cantore's report, but I suspect he was talking about the current Arctic airmass moving into New England and not 8-10 days from now.

What's new on the one that MIGHT hit us in Texas? It's been strangely quite around here this mornin. No JB updates either.

[Below N.O.]

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

I didn't see Cantore's report, but I suspect he was talking about the current Arctic airmass moving into New England and not 8-10 days from now.

He was giving us a birds eye view of the globe looking down at the Arctic circle. He pointed out every ridge and trough around the Northern Hemisphere and when he got to the trough in the east, he pointed out the angle at which the cold would come in. The trough line extended only to about the Northern parts of TX, LA, MS, AL, GA. basically not reaching the gulf. He didn't give a time frame. He talked like it included the whole onset and conclusion of the cold event that was to come.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

I didn't see Cantore's report, but I suspect he was talking about the current Arctic airmass moving into New England and not 8-10 days from now.

He was giving us a birds eye view of the globe looking down at the Arctic circle. He pointed out every ridge and trough around the Northern Hemisphere and when he got to the trough in the east, he pointed out the angle at which the cold would come in. The trough line extended only to about the Northern parts of TX, LA, MS, AL, GA. basically not reaching the gulf. He didn't give a time frame. He talked like it included the whole onset and conclusion of the cold event that was to come.

I've seen those graphics from the Weather Channel for years and somehow the air manages to seep through the the imaginary through line of the graphic.

[Below N.O.]

Cantore on the Weather Channel said last night that the Arctic air would not reach the "DEEP, DEEP SOUTH". Just who that includes???? I have no idea.

I didn't see Cantore's report, but I suspect he was talking about the current Arctic airmass moving into New England and not 8-10 days from now.

He was giving us a birds eye view of the globe looking down at the Arctic circle. He pointed out every ridge and trough around the Northern Hemisphere and when he got to the trough in the east, he pointed out the angle at which the cold would come in. The trough line extended only to about the Northern parts of TX, LA, MS, AL, GA. basically not reaching the gulf. He didn't give a time frame. He talked like it included the whole onset and conclusion of the cold event that was to come.

I've seen those graphics from the Weather Channel for years and somehow the air manages to seep through the the imaginary through line of the graphic.

I know that some COLD will seep through, also! But, he made it sound like, once again that it wasn't a threat to the DEEP SOUTH!

[aggiecutter]

I hope Cantore is right. That would make conditions very favorable for a mid-south winter weather event.

[double D]

The GFS still wants to keep the cold air north and east of Texas, it never builds a strong high(1032-1036 max) to bring the cold air straight down the plains into Texas. I don't know what the ensembles are showing today, but I think yesterday aggiecutter said that the ensembles were backing off on the cold air as well (for Texas at least).

As Wxman 57 said, the GFS is not handling the surface features very well, but I'm growing a little skeptical that the very cold air will reach Texas.

[aggiecutter]

I just looked at this mornings Ensembles and the 6z and 12z runs of the GFS, and I just don't see anything on them that would make me think there is a cold wave coming. Next week looks cold, particularly for the northern part of the state. But, I don't see anything out of the ordinary. And, both the Ensembles and the operational runs are getting warmer with each run, particularly when you get pass day 10. When I see below zero temps entering Kansas, then I'll believe it's coming.

[Below N.O.]

This is somewhat encouraging. Look at the angle at which the cold is being dispersed from Canada around the 9th & 10th day of this run. The question still remains does it get cut off and shunted to our north and east ? OR does it continue to drive straight south.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html

[Lowpressure]

This is somewhat encouraging. Look at the angle at which the cold is being dispersed from Canada around the 9th & 10th day of this run. The question still remains does it get cut off and shunted to our north and east ? OR does it continue to drive straight south.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html

The end of that run looks real cold for the Ohio valley.

[wxman57]

8-10 Day European vs. GFS still looks quite cold for much of the U.S. Strong cross-Polar flow that may persist for quite a while. Also indicated is a continued active southern stream. I'm not looking forward to February....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[double D]

Isn't the NAO supposed to go negative, and if so, could the GFS not be picking up on this and that's why it is much wamer compared to other models?

[GeneratorPower]

wxman57, any indication of p-type? You mentioned it would be a thicker air mass than the previous, shallow one.

[Shoshana]

I'm trying to track down where they heard this, but this morning at the doc's office all they could talk about was the weather report one of them heard this morning. That next the end of the month will have

"The coldest temperatures ever recorded in Austin"

Unfortunately, I never could find out which station the person heard it - I was hearing this from all the people second or fifth hand...

All I could think was "Yup, and last weeks's ice storm was supposed to be a Monster Storm"

I don't actually know what the coldest recorded temp in Austin is - i know i was in Dallas when it got to -4F and I hated that.

[wxman57]

wxman57, any indication of p-type? You mentioned it would be a thicker air mass than the previous, shallow one.

Such an oubreak would not be the very thin layer of sub-freezing air like we saw a week ago, so there may be a better chance of sleet/snow further south. But this is too far out to have any confidence at all about specific events. Maybe this time NEXT week we'll have a better idea about what areas could be impacted by freezing/frozen precip.

[rsdoug1981]

Isn't the NAO supposed to go negative, and if so, could the GFS not be picking up on this and that's why it is much wamer compared to other models?

Double D,

The NAO has already gone into negative territory and should continue downward for a while.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

Although we don't necessarily need a -NAO for cold temps, it does give it some staying power.

[Lowpressure]

Looks like Austin all time low was -2.

[Shoshana]

Looks like Austin all time low was -2.

Brrr... Thank you ... Brr!

[double D]

Isn't the NAO supposed to go negative, and if so, could the GFS not be picking up on this and that's why it is much wamer compared to other models?

Double D,

The NAO has already gone into negative territory and should continue downward for a while.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

Although we don't necessarily need a -NAO for cold temps, it does give it some staying power.

Thanks rsdoug1981. Fwiw, the EURO has performed much better in the long range than the GFS....as the GFS is kind of out there in lala land right now.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Isn't the NAO supposed to go negative, and if so, could the GFS not be picking up on this and that's why it is much wamer compared to other models?

Double D,

The NAO has already gone into negative territory and should continue downward for a while.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

Although we don't necessarily need a -NAO for cold temps, it does give it some staying power.

Thanks rsdoug1981. Fwiw, the EURO has performed much better in the long range than the GFS....as the GFS is kind of out there in lala land right now.

When is the GFS not in lala land? Monday night it had the leading edge of the Arctic Circle just north of DFW. Then it turns around and put's us in a zonal flow.

[Hurricane_Apu]

This is somewhat encouraging. Look at the angle at which the cold is being dispersed from Canada around the 9th & 10th day of this run. The question still remains does it get cut off and shunted to our north and east ? OR does it continue to drive straight south.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html

The end of that run looks real cold for the Ohio valley.

The Wilmington/Columbus, OH NWS office has been has been skeptical about a major cold outbreak all along. Of course those guys all own the Successories posters for "PERSISTENCE" and "SHOW ME." As they've already said in earlier discussions, this winter it's hard to go wrong by going warmer than guidance.
Not surprisingly, they jumped on today's GFS shift, and raised temps in their extended forecast... which already appeared to be a bit on the warm side... another notch. They're now suggesting that the cold shot this Thursday/Friday may be the most intense of the series and even hinting at a significant warmup @7-10 days+.