Global model runs discussion

[Macrocane]

Yep, 6z gfs is 6th run in a row with Richard threatening SFL within 10/22-25! It would at least appear that late OCT won't be boring. That remains to be seen as the 0z Euro, just like the prior Euro, has no Richard at all and it is often the superior model.

Actually this season the GFS has been better than the Euro for tropical cyclogenesis.

[CourierPR]

The GFS has been developing Richard for seven runs now.I don't see a trigger of where Richard will form. Is this just a fantasy storm or will it form.

I just looked at RAMSDIS and you can see a large area of disturbed weather southeast of Paula. Perhaps that is the system that will spawn the next cyclone.

[DESTRUCTION5]

As much as i hate to say it the GFS has been the best when it comes to spotting how things have verified....Was the 1st to notice Nicole was not Matthew and was the best spotting that Nicole was gonna be a sheared mess.( Besides for the few times it went a bit overboard on intesity early.)

[PTrackerLA]

FWIW I remember the Euro indicating Nicole to be a sheared elongated mess when the GFS was indicating a strong system impacting Florida. Anyway something to keep an eye on but we're still talking fantasy-land longe range here.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Looks liek the GFS is fine tuning the position of the incoming front for where it decides to put Richard; whether it is a steep west to east mover with NE to SW alignment, or whether it flattens out more to a ENE to WSW alignment, and how low it dips into the gulf. The speed at which it progresses across the south also plays into how much latitude Richard can gain before it is shunted to the NE or ENE.
Will be interesting to watch the dynamics of that frontal setup.
The teleconnect with China now may be telling as to what could happen with our front later.

[boca]

Looks liek the GFS is fine tuning the position of the incoming front for where it decides to put Richard; whether it is a steep west to east mover with NE to SW alignment, or whether it flattens out more to a ENE to WSW alignment, and how low it dips into the gulf. The speed at which it progresses across the south also plays into how much latitude Richard can gain before it is shunted to the NE or ENE.
Will be interesting to watch the dynamics of that frontal setup.
The teleconnect with China now may be telling as to what could happen with our front later.

Good point but where is Richard going to stem from what is the trigger.

[dwsqos2]

It seems as though the 12Z gfs has dethroned Richard.

[LarryWx]

It seems as though the 12Z gfs has dethroned Richard.

Uh oh! Maybe this was just a hiccup?

[LarryWx]

Bad news if you don't want to be bored: 12Z Euro has no King Richard.

[caneseddy]

Some model support showing up

GFS (until the 12z run)
Canadian (depicting a low)
NOGAPS

The Euro is the only one that has not shown anything

Another GFS v. Euro battle seems to be looming

[petit_bois]

Are y'all talking about the GFS 300 hour forcast?

[caneseddy]

Are y'all talking about the GFS 300 hour forcast?

Yep...the fantasyland 300 hrs..this is the fantasyland thread you know

[srainhoutx]

Not so much fanasty with NOGAPS and CMC 12Z output.

[LarryWx]

OK, King Richard has returned on the 18z gfs, but he has decided to make a left turn and get decapitated in Honduras. His remains then get shunted onto the Central G.O.M.

[Aquawind]

decapitated

LOL.. Weather wise we will take it!

[ericinmia]

Wow

As a reminder, please everyone do NOT hot-link but upload your image somewhere like http://www.imageshack.us.
They allow you to just put in a url to make it faster! I was going back just now and reading posts from just a couple days back and I'm SURE that Gator wasn't talking about this specific image...

[FireRat]

10/25?

That's close to Wilma's anniversary and the same day as the Tampa 1921 hurricane. Will be interesting to see.
Does anyone know if that front that's supposed to clear thru S. Florida tomorrow will come back up/fizzle by then...or may it serve as a blockade shoving future Richard into Cuba rather?

[LarryWx]

0z gfs: Although badly crippled, Richard isn't quite successful at a suicide attempt over Nicaragua on 10/22.

[dwsqos2]

Yes, but King Richard still appears to have a very short reign.

Best Analog: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_III_of_England

[DESTRUCTION5]

Richard back this morn as a powerful cane but heads eastof the state before day 10

New soloution...llol