ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1801 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:02 am

Blown Away wrote:06z GFDL... Hour 12... 94 mph Cat 2 Hurricane SE Of PR... I'm no expert, but this is not to be considered... As Usual It's A Monster At Hour 126 To The East
Image


The GFDL really is as good as my 10 yr old drawing lines on his hurricane map.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1802 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:04 am

11:00am update brings it right up the Florida coast with 75 knot winds
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#1803 Postby BucMan2 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:11 am

Question is, will there be more shifts west of do you feel that will be it?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1804 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:12 am

:uarrow: Wow I never really noticed how bad the GFDL is until the 06z run lol.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1805 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:12 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:In my opinion if Erika slams into Hispaniola she very well may not survive. She still looks to be moving west. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models show. I would guess a weaker Erika further west.


I think worst case scenario for South Florida is a weaker Erika in the short to medium term and then a rapidly intensifying Erika to the NW of Hispaniola. Weak enough to keep it coming west and then strong enough to start pulling out but not in time enough to avoid the peninsula.

SFT

Even if Erika were to travel over Hispaniola is there a chance it may survive?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1806 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:13 am

PTrackerLA wrote::uarrow: Wow I never really noticed how bad the GFDL is until the 06z run lol.

Yeah the HWRF really makes it's twin sister look like garbage these days! :lol:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1807 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:14 am

Blown Away wrote:06z GFDL... Hour 12... 94 mph Cat 2 Hurricane SE Of PR... I'm no expert, but this is not to be considered... As Usual It's A Monster At Hour 126 To The East
Image


I'm not sure what the GFDL is on but it needs to put down the pipe and back away. That is way overbaked in my opinion. For that to verify it would have to rapidly deepen right now.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1808 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:15 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote::uarrow: Wow I never really noticed how bad the GFDL is until the 06z run lol.

Yeah the HWRF really makes it's twin sister look like garbage these days! :lol:


Which was the purpose of the HWRF in the first place.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1809 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:15 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:06z GFDL... Hour 12... 94 mph Cat 2 Hurricane SE Of PR... I'm no expert, but this is not to be considered... As Usual It's A Monster At Hour 126 To The East
Image


The GFDL really is as good as my 10 yr old drawing lines on his hurricane map.


:roflmao:
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#1810 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:31 am

12Z GFS should be starting now.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1811 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:31 am

Init

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1812 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:32 am

Not sure this is in the correct location.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1813 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:34 am

Image
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#1814 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:36 am

this look like Floyd track so we may be big area hurricane watch
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1815 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:36 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1816 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:37 am

Hispaniola will be the big X factor on this GFS run...Looks like it's going to impact it.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1817 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:37 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1818 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:37 am

tolakram wrote:http://imageshack.com/a/img537/2184/3SsH2C.gif


It's going to bodyslam Hispanola.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1819 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:38 am

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#1820 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:38 am

12z GFS looks like it initialized to far north.
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