ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

It looks like convection is dying a little bit. Or am I seeing things?

redeveloping with more banding. Looks to be slowly intensifying

Thanks Alyono. I guess when the dark cloud tops disappear it can trick you

[Jag95]

If I had to guess, I'd say just east of New Orleans to around Gulfport the more I watch the loops. That's enough for me. Must. Get. Sleep.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070754
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 01 20171007
074500 2759N 08200W 9965 00148 0138 +253 +248 127011 012 /// /// 03
074530 2759N 08158W 9852 00266 0149 +247 +245 137018 024 /// /// 03
074600 2757N 08157W 9613 00480 0146 +245 +224 147027 027 /// /// 03
074630 2756N 08157W 9363 00708 0141 +238 +193 149027 027 /// /// 03
074700 2754N 08157W 9116 00939 0141 +224 +174 150027 027 /// /// 03
074730 2752N 08157W 8884 01163 0140 +207 +176 152025 025 /// /// 03
074800 2750N 08157W 8649 01392 0139 +193 +165 152025 025 /// /// 03
074830 2749N 08157W 8456 01588 0142 +182 +156 146024 024 /// /// 03
074900 2747N 08159W 8265 01789 0143 +173 +145 146024 024 /// /// 03
074930 2746N 08201W 8081 01979 0140 +163 +131 143023 024 /// /// 03
075000 2745N 08203W 7901 02169 0138 +151 +119 142022 023 /// /// 03
075030 2745N 08205W 7729 02355 0132 +143 +120 142020 021 /// /// 03
075100 2744N 08207W 7560 02537 0130 +135 +090 143020 021 /// /// 03
075130 2743N 08209W 7411 02705 0125 +127 +092 144019 019 /// /// 03
075200 2742N 08212W 7249 02887 0116 +123 +077 153018 019 /// /// 03
075230 2741N 08214W 7131 03033 0116 +118 +063 152017 017 /// /// 03
075300 2740N 08216W 7005 03180 0117 +107 +059 154019 020 /// /// 03
075330 2739N 08218W 6880 03328 0115 +099 +052 156020 020 /// /// 03
075400 2738N 08221W 6769 03463 0112 +091 +049 156019 019 /// /// 03
075430 2737N 08223W 6646 03613 0112 +080 +046 160021 021 /// /// 03

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070804
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 02 20171007
075500 2736N 08225W 6545 03740 0111 +073 +038 158021 022 /// /// 03
075530 2735N 08227W 6444 03865 0104 +068 +033 159018 019 /// /// 03
075600 2734N 08230W 6361 03974 0103 +064 +028 154019 020 /// /// 03
075630 2733N 08232W 6276 04088 0104 +057 +022 156023 024 /// /// 03
075700 2732N 08234W 6172 04224 0108 +046 +012 160027 027 /// /// 03
075730 2731N 08236W 6092 04328 0109 +038 +007 158028 029 /// /// 03
075800 2730N 08239W 6017 04427 0107 +031 +009 158025 026 /// /// 03
075830 2729N 08241W 5938 04533 0107 +023 +011 160024 024 /// /// 03
075900 2728N 08243W 5864 04629 0106 +018 -001 160024 024 /// /// 03
075930 2727N 08246W 5796 04731 0104 +015 -023 162024 025 /// /// 03
080000 2726N 08248W 5721 04833 0103 +009 -032 167026 027 /// /// 03
080030 2725N 08250W 5640 04948 0090 +007 -017 175025 026 /// /// 03
080100 2724N 08253W 5580 05033 0081 +004 -007 178025 025 /// /// 03
080130 2723N 08255W 5525 05111 0077 +001 -015 178026 027 011 000 03
080200 2722N 08257W 5455 05217 0287 -005 -018 177026 027 011 000 00
080230 2721N 08300W 5363 05355 0298 -014 -027 173025 025 013 000 00
080300 2721N 08302W 5306 05435 0304 -020 -031 171025 025 012 000 00
080330 2720N 08304W 5263 05504 0310 -025 -036 172025 026 014 000 00
080400 2719N 08306W 5207 05590 0314 -032 -042 172027 027 013 000 00
080430 2718N 08309W 5140 05690 0320 -040 -050 170027 028 013 000 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070814
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 03 20171007
080500 2717N 08311W 5083 05779 0324 -041 -060 164026 026 011 001 00
080530 2716N 08313W 5029 05858 0326 -044 -069 160025 026 012 001 00
080600 2715N 08316W 5015 05878 0325 -046 -072 162026 027 011 000 00
080630 2714N 08318W 5039 05833 0318 -039 -076 164027 027 010 001 00
080700 2712N 08321W 5061 05800 0314 -035 -076 163027 027 012 001 00
080730 2711N 08323W 5054 05807 0313 -039 -075 169028 028 013 001 00
080800 2710N 08326W 5055 05807 0314 -037 -075 171028 029 016 000 00
080830 2709N 08328W 5055 05807 0314 -038 -076 171029 030 015 001 00
080900 2708N 08331W 5057 05805 0315 -036 -079 167029 029 017 000 00
080930 2707N 08334W 5060 05804 0317 -035 -081 162028 029 017 000 00
081000 2706N 08336W 5059 05804 0318 -034 -082 159028 029 016 000 00
081030 2705N 08339W 5061 05804 0317 -042 -075 161029 031 018 000 00
081100 2704N 08341W 5062 05802 0318 -049 -065 163030 032 017 000 00
081130 2703N 08343W 5063 05802 0319 -049 -063 164032 033 018 000 00
081200 2702N 08346W 5063 05803 0320 -048 -063 165033 034 018 000 00
081230 2701N 08348W 5062 05803 0320 -047 -062 163034 034 017 001 00
081300 2700N 08350W 5061 05804 0319 -046 -063 163034 034 017 000 00
081330 2659N 08352W 5059 05807 0318 -046 -062 162034 034 015 001 00
081400 2658N 08354W 5059 05804 0316 -045 -063 161035 035 017 001 00
081430 2657N 08357W 5056 05805 0314 -046 -064 159034 034 017 001 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070824
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 04 20171007
081500 2656N 08359W 5056 05805 0312 -046 -064 159035 035 021 000 00
081530 2655N 08402W 5056 05804 0311 -045 -066 157034 035 020 001 00
081600 2654N 08404W 5055 05802 0309 -044 -063 155034 035 021 000 00
081630 2652N 08407W 5055 05801 0307 -043 -062 157034 034 021 000 00
081700 2651N 08409W 5056 05799 0307 -039 -065 154034 034 022 000 00
081730 2650N 08412W 5056 05799 0306 -037 -064 154035 036 022 001 00
081800 2649N 08415W 5054 05798 0304 -034 -066 158037 037 022 001 00
081830 2648N 08417W 5055 05797 0305 -033 -068 158037 037 024 000 00
081900 2647N 08420W 5056 05797 0304 -034 -064 158038 038 024 000 00
081930 2646N 08422W 5057 05795 0304 -034 -060 156038 039 024 000 00
082000 2644N 08425W 5056 05796 0304 -031 -063 155038 038 025 000 00
082030 2643N 08427W 5058 05793 0303 -029 -065 154038 039 024 000 00
082100 2642N 08430W 5057 05793 0302 -032 -060 153042 043 022 001 00
082130 2641N 08433W 5056 05793 0301 -033 -065 155043 044 024 000 00
082200 2640N 08435W 5057 05791 0300 -033 -066 153043 044 023 000 00
082230 2639N 08438W 5056 05791 0299 -035 -059 153041 041 022 001 00
082300 2638N 08440W 5056 05791 0299 -033 -059 153041 041 023 001 00
082330 2637N 08443W 5057 05789 0299 -032 -054 154041 042 023 001 00
082400 2635N 08445W 5058 05789 0299 -033 -056 152043 044 022 001 00
082430 2634N 08448W 5056 05790 0299 -035 -056 149043 043 023 001 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070834
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 05 20171007
082500 2633N 08450W 5058 05788 0298 -033 -061 145042 042 025 000 00
082530 2632N 08453W 5058 05787 0297 -030 -068 143042 043 024 001 00
082600 2631N 08455W 5058 05786 0296 -031 -076 142044 045 024 001 00
082630 2630N 08458W 5057 05786 0295 -030 -076 142044 044 023 001 00
082700 2629N 08501W 5057 05785 0294 -028 -065 142043 044 027 000 00
082730 2627N 08503W 5057 05782 0292 -027 -069 143044 044 027 001 00
082800 2626N 08506W 5057 05780 0290 -025 -065 144044 044 027 000 00
082830 2625N 08508W 5057 05779 0288 -027 -057 146044 045 026 001 00
082900 2624N 08511W 5056 05778 0286 -027 -054 146046 047 026 001 00
082930 2623N 08513W 5057 05776 0285 -028 -053 146045 045 028 001 00
083000 2622N 08516W 5058 05775 0286 -024 -057 144045 045 028 001 00
083030 2620N 08519W 5058 05776 0286 -027 -053 145045 046 028 001 00
083100 2619N 08521W 5057 05776 0286 -028 -052 144043 044 028 001 00
083130 2618N 08524W 5056 05778 0286 -027 -053 146040 042 030 001 00
083200 2617N 08526W 5056 05776 0284 -026 -053 148039 040 031 000 00
083230 2616N 08529W 5127 05667 0278 -020 -050 144043 045 031 001 00
083300 2615N 08531W 5127 05516 0271 -008 -045 140044 045 032 001 00
083330 2614N 08534W 5240 05498 0271 -005 -044 136043 043 032 001 00
083400 2612N 08536W 5238 05500 0271 -006 -044 134044 044 031 001 00
083430 2611N 08539W 5239 05498 0269 -007 -044 134046 048 031 001 00

[Billyp542]

I assume it is an infrastructure risk vs the actual effects of the storm itself.

Why would it be more of an infrastructure risk, than the storm itself.

See: Katrina.

I was here and lived through it. Katrina was a different animal, not to mention the flood wall breaches that were directly responsible for the flooding.

[Sciencerocks]

Looking at the IR I can only say that this system could very well become very intense. Eye becoming visible on IR the last 30-45 minutes with -80 to -90 convection is a very good sign of something respectable about to happen.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070844
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 06 20171007
083500 2610N 08541W 5237 05500 0268 -006 -041 133047 047 032 001 00
083530 2609N 08544W 5237 05497 0267 -004 -044 134046 047 032 001 00
083600 2608N 08546W 5238 05496 0266 -009 -043 133046 047 033 001 00
083630 2607N 08549W 5238 05495 0265 -009 -041 129046 047 033 000 00
083700 2606N 08551W 5238 05494 0264 -008 -041 131047 048 032 001 00
083730 2605N 08554W 5238 05492 0262 -006 -040 133049 051 031 001 00
083800 2603N 08556W 5238 05491 0261 -006 -036 134051 052 031 001 00
083830 2603N 08559W 5236 05492 0260 -005 -041 135049 050 033 000 03
083900 2603N 08602W 5237 05489 0258 -004 -039 132047 048 035 001 00
083930 2603N 08605W 5238 05489 0258 -005 -039 133048 049 036 001 00
084000 2604N 08608W 5236 05491 0257 -000 -043 132044 046 037 001 00
084030 2604N 08611W 5237 05487 0255 -003 -044 132043 044 038 001 00
084100 2604N 08614W 5236 05488 0254 -003 -043 131040 041 036 001 00
084130 2605N 08617W 5238 05484 0254 -001 -043 130041 042 036 002 00
084200 2605N 08620W 5237 05486 0254 -003 -045 128042 042 037 001 00
084230 2606N 08623W 5236 05486 0254 -004 -045 126041 042 038 001 00
084300 2606N 08626W 5237 05485 0253 -006 -041 126039 039 039 001 00
084330 2607N 08629W 5237 05485 0254 -007 -036 125041 042 038 001 00
084400 2607N 08632W 5237 05484 0253 -007 -039 124043 044 038 002 00
084430 2607N 08635W 5240 05482 0254 -006 -039 125044 044 038 002 00

[bahamaswx]

Thank god he's moving so quickly.

[Alyono]

Thank god he's moving so quickly.

that's really bad this is moving quick. Very little preparation time remains

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070854
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 07 20171007
084500 2608N 08638W 5239 05484 0255 -003 -036 127042 043 038 002 00
084530 2608N 08640W 5239 05483 0255 -009 -031 126041 042 038 002 00
084600 2609N 08643W 5239 05483 0256 -009 -029 125042 042 037 002 00
084630 2610N 08646W 5240 05485 0258 -010 -028 125043 043 039 001 03
084700 2612N 08646W 5242 05480 0257 -010 -025 126041 042 /// /// 03
084730 2614N 08644W 5302 05393 0251 -007 -021 124040 040 /// /// 03
084800 2613N 08642W 5436 05191 0237 +005 -020 122041 043 /// /// 03
084830 2611N 08642W 5533 05042 9977 +019 -024 121043 044 /// /// 03
084900 2610N 08644W 5682 04823 9984 +028 -015 121043 043 /// /// 03
084930 2610N 08647W 5820 04627 9990 +037 -002 123046 048 /// /// 03
085000 2613N 08648W 5990 04397 0002 +046 +010 123051 052 /// /// 03
085030 2614N 08647W 6115 04230 0009 +055 +018 123051 053 /// /// 03
085100 2614N 08645W 6251 04053 0013 +063 +024 126052 052 /// /// 03
085130 2612N 08645W 6386 03876 0018 +070 +031 124051 052 /// /// 03
085200 2611N 08647W 6552 03652 0010 +082 +049 124052 053 /// /// 03
085230 2612N 08649W 6694 03478 0013 +094 +059 124052 053 /// /// 03
085300 2614N 08651W 6828 03318 0016 +101 +066 127051 052 037 000 03
085330 2616N 08651W 6978 03131 0021 +110 +073 128051 053 036 000 03
085400 2619N 08651W 7106 02987 0025 +120 +085 126051 052 035 002 03
085430 2620N 08649W 7261 02811 0029 +129 +092 129053 054 /// /// 03

[stormreader]

Looking at the IR I can only say that this system could very well become very intense. Eye becoming visible on IR the last 30-45 minutes with -80 to -90 convection is a very good sign of something respectable about to happen.

Winding up very quickly now. Convection has really consolidated near the center. Storm has completely shed all of its "baby fat" and is much leaner and tighter. Might very likely make landfall in SE La as a Cat 3. Even with the fast forward speed, that would make the tidal surge problem much, much worse than has been anticipated by local authorities there, I think. They are ready for surge, but they are looking at a Cat 1 or maybe a Cat 2 making a hard right at the mouth of the Miss River and then bringing the bulk of the surge eastward toward Alabama. But if Euro verifies and intensification continues you could easily have a 125 mph storm moving due north onto the La coast near Grand Isle and then straight up over, or (can't rule it out) even slightly to the west of New Orleans. Could be big time issues with an unanticipated major strike onto the SE La coast. What a season!

[Blown Away]

NHC says no hurricane winds on W side of center and the stuck with following TVCN consensus and not slight W per ECMWF... Seems N.O stays out of the worst if current track verifies...

[sponger]

Model consensus as tight as I have seen it but the intensity forecast is obviously blown. Winding up nicely and consolidating. Will not be surprised to see this get to 100 or better by 5 pm. MS in for a much stronger hit than forecasted.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070904
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 08 20171007
085500 2618N 08648W 7388 02662 0028 +140 +096 130054 054 /// /// 03
085530 2617N 08649W 7498 02530 0029 +146 +106 131054 054 /// /// 03
085600 2617N 08652W 7544 02483 0029 +147 +110 130055 055 040 001 00
085630 2617N 08654W 7515 02515 0028 +148 +110 128055 055 041 001 00
085700 2617N 08657W 7499 02530 0024 +149 +110 123052 053 039 001 00
085730 2617N 08659W 7502 02529 0025 +149 +108 124051 052 038 001 00
085800 2617N 08702W 7502 02529 0026 +149 +107 123051 051 038 002 00
085830 2617N 08705W 7508 02526 0029 +146 +105 120052 052 038 001 00
085900 2617N 08707W 7510 02524 0030 +143 +118 116050 052 035 003 03
085930 2616N 08709W 7500 02527 0033 +138 +116 120051 052 035 002 03
090000 2614N 08710W 7500 02525 0032 +138 +110 119051 051 033 002 00
090030 2612N 08710W 7507 02521 0028 +142 +110 121052 054 034 002 00
090100 2610N 08710W 7539 02485 0026 +139 //// 119049 051 033 004 01
090130 2609N 08710W 7498 02526 0030 +136 +116 122054 056 032 003 00
090200 2607N 08709W 7486 02540 0030 +134 +113 121056 057 033 002 00
090230 2605N 08709W 7519 02504 0030 +135 +117 122053 054 036 002 00
090300 2604N 08708W 7527 02494 0029 +135 +122 124054 055 034 003 00
090330 2602N 08708W 7530 02488 0025 +136 +125 125054 057 032 003 00
090400 2600N 08708W 7499 02519 0027 +135 +107 129055 057 033 001 00
090430 2559N 08708W 7514 02503 0023 +135 +120 131055 056 033 001 00

[stormreader]

NHC says no hurricane winds on W side of center and the stuck with following TVCN consensus and not slight W per ECMWF... Seems N.O stays out of the worst if current track verifies...

Got that "fist" look to it right now. Appears on track for a SE La strike per Euro. Its wobbling a tad west right now, which the Euro anticipated, before making a strong due north move onto the La coast near Grand Isle. This is going to be interesting.

[stormreader]

NHC says no hurricane winds on W side of center and the stuck with following TVCN consensus and not slight W per ECMWF... Seems N.O stays out of the worst if current track verifies...

Got that "fist" look to it right now. Appears on track for a SE La strike per Euro. Its wobbling a tad west right now, which the Euro anticipated, before making a strong due north move onto the La coast near Grand Isle. This is going to be interesting.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070914
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 09 20171007
090500 2557N 08708W 7514 02502 0024 +133 +117 126056 058 033 002 00
090530 2555N 08708W 7514 02501 0023 +135 +109 123058 060 035 001 00
090600 2554N 08708W 7517 02496 0021 +135 +111 124062 063 037 000 00
090630 2552N 08708W 7514 02498 0021 +133 +117 123059 060 037 001 00
090700 2550N 08708W 7513 02499 0020 +132 +122 122059 059 037 002 00
090730 2548N 08708W 7514 02495 0015 +135 +121 122058 059 037 002 00
090800 2547N 08708W 7513 02496 0015 +134 +126 120058 059 039 001 00
090830 2545N 08708W 7514 02492 0008 +137 +134 123061 063 039 001 00
090900 2543N 08708W 7518 02487 0003 +140 +132 123063 063 040 003 00
090930 2541N 08708W 7513 02492 0003 +142 +114 122062 063 039 003 00
091000 2540N 08708W 7515 02486 0001 +142 +107 120066 067 038 001 00
091030 2538N 08708W 7514 02486 9996 +146 +100 120063 064 035 001 00
091100 2536N 08708W 7513 02485 9989 +152 +097 118062 062 034 001 00
091130 2535N 08708W 7515 02480 9988 +149 +099 119064 065 035 001 00
091200 2533N 08708W 7515 02477 9983 +150 +111 121065 067 035 001 00
091230 2531N 08708W 7515 02475 9988 +142 +117 121067 068 036 000 00
091300 2529N 08708W 7515 02473 9986 +141 +116 118066 066 038 001 00
091330 2528N 08708W 7513 02475 9987 +139 +119 118065 066 041 002 00
091400 2526N 08708W 7525 02459 9978 +144 +128 117065 066 043 001 00
091430 2524N 08708W 7521 02458 9972 +147 +124 116065 066 042 002 00