2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12z Canadian develops a storm in the Epac but leaves a developing 1008mb low spinning in the extreme SW Caribbean right at the end of the run at 240hrs. Is this what the GFS tries to develop in the super long range?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12Z GFS ensembles in the super long-range continue to be bullish and centered over the Western Caribbean. How the run ends below with a majority of ensembles members moving a hurricane slowly north:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:The 12Z GFS ensembles in the super long-range continue to be bullish and centered over the Western Caribbean. How the run ends below with a majority of ensembles members moving a hurricane slowly north:
Met. Joe Bastardi tweeted about it this morning. He is eyeing the period from now through October 15 for more development.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
WeatherEmperor wrote:The 12z Canadian develops a storm in the Epac but leaves a developing 1008mb low spinning in the extreme SW Caribbean right at the end of the run at 240hrs. Is this what the GFS tries to develop in the super long range?
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Usually when you have a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific so close to Central America or Mexico you don’t get anything in the Caribbean and vice versa.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like the 12zeuro has come aboard with the Western Caribbean so the time to watch is the last few days of the month into early October
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the 12zeuro has come aboard with the Western Caribbean so the time to watch is the last few days of the month into early October
I'm not seeing anything on the Euro as of yet. Since it doesn't go out past 240 hours it is a bit early for it to be showing something that would match what both GFS models are putting out. Need to wait until this weekend to see if the Euro follows suit.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12z Euro also develops a MDR storm, can't rule out another storm in this region yet.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hurricaneman wrote:Looks like the 12zeuro has come aboard with the Western Caribbean so the time to watch is the last few days of the month into early October
Onboard? There’s nothing to see on the euro.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I don't see any type of spin up there. What I do see, though, is some MDR Development... Thought that was dead.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:
https://i.postimg.cc/Kvyj6Qvt/gfs_pres_wind_watl_52.png
Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z GefS very bullish still. Need to keep an eye on this one.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
blp wrote:18z GefS very bullish still. Need to keep an eye on this one.
The thing I noticed on this run is that the beginnings of cyclogenesis is before truncation as opposed to after the runs before, might have to watch the Western Caribbean around mid week next week
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Interesting EPS seems to be favoring C. Carribean and W. Carribean today even a few members reaching Florida. Yesterday it was in the Epac primarily.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
blp wrote:Interesting EPS seems to be favoring C. Carribean and W. Carribean today even a few members reaching Florida. Yesterday it was in the Epac primarily.
https://image.ibb.co/jmXr6e/eps_mslp_rings_carib_348.png
Yep, looks like the Euro is coming aboard and I’m thinking that might mean it’s go time mid week next week onwards
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS ensembles look quite bullish:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hurricaneman wrote:gatorcane wrote:GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:
https://i.postimg.cc/Kvyj6Qvt/gfs_pres_wind_watl_52.png
Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately
Classic Western Caribbean October monster on simulated IR...thankfully 384 hours out:
But it could be a large storm if it develops, the model expands it as it pulls out of the NW Caribbean:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Abdullah wrote:Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?
No not at all. Models are seeing this in the long range (300+ hours out).
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:gatorcane wrote:GFS with a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean in the long-range:
https://i.postimg.cc/Kvyj6Qvt/gfs_pres_wind_watl_52.png
Its trying to pull a Wilma on the GFS if you account for truncation. If something that strong happens the Western Caribbean is the place to do it unfortunately
Classic Western Caribbean October monster on simulated IR...thankfully 384 hours out:
But it could be a large storm if it develops, the model expands it as it pulls out of the NW Caribbean:
https://i.postimg.cc/bvkTL36d/gfs_ir_watl_53.png
How do you get that superimposed pic from the GFS model?
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