NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[WaveBreaking]

You can see Melissa stop in place as its CDO expands and cools again.

[sasha_B]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

[Beef Stew]

For what it’s worth, both of the most recent HAFS runs show Melissa’s peak as still to come after she turns to the north and aligns more with the trough… the pause in motion and expanding CDO we’re seeing could be the precursor to that if the models are correct.

[TallyTracker]

Melissa is about to pass Gabrielle’s 19.0 ACE to be third highest this year. The North Atlantic’s YTD ACE just passed average. Only a little bit more is needed to pass average for the whole season.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[crimi481]

No north movement yet. Melissa calling the shots and wants no ropes

[Travorum]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

[Hurricane2022]

You can see Melissa stop in place as its CDO expands and cools again.
https://i.imgur.com/qufzBDA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zMDuyPT.png

The eye also became somewhat larger. Another eyewall meld likely occured again.

[Travorum]

And Raw T# is up to 8.4, tying Eta for the highest ever Raw T# recorded in the Atlantic.

[sasha_B]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

[WaveBreaking]

[michelinj]

You can see Melissa stop in place as its CDO expands and cools again.
https://i.imgur.com/qufzBDA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zMDuyPT.png

The eye also became somewhat larger. Another eyewall meld likely occured again.

Yeah it’s subtle but it has. I must have changed my mind 100 times on whether an EWRC or meld took place this afternoon but I reckon it did and it’s done now. If so and she starts moving with the shear vector some of those HAFS runs may be absolutely spot on.

[aspen]

Interesting, both recon planes are matching their flight profiles. Both did a NE/SW pass before, now they’re going in for a SE/NW pass together.

[Kingarabian]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

Yep. Only reason its currently not equating to hypercane status is due to the time of the year.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting, both recon planes are matching their flight profiles. Both did a NE/SW pass before, now they’re going in for a SE/NW pass together.

Maybe to gauge instrument accuracy? Or maybe safety reasons?

Very interesting.

[Travorum]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

With how rapidly the CDG is building in the W half I think Melissa is about to max out the scale on Raw T#.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Link: https://youtu.be/9ndtttB5bP4

This is a day old but it's very harrowing

EDIT: Forgot how to embed YouTube videos again sorry

[zzzh]

Eye temp steadily increasing as it bottomed out around 2340z.

[ElectricStorm]

I really don't understand why there was an 8 hour gap in recon just for both planes to make the same passes at the same time. Especially when they were staggering them yesterday...

Should be near constant recon when a storm is closing in on landfall IMO

[Sunnydays]

Interesting, both recon planes are matching their flight profiles. Both did a NE/SW pass before, now they’re going in for a SE/NW pass together.

Maybe to gauge instrument accuracy? Or maybe safety reasons?

Very interesting.

I think safety reasons as well. Such a strong storm with fairly small eye...spinning so fast, maybe following each other is safer than coming in at different angles. Just a guess. But sounds logical.

[Teban54]

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

Yep. Only reason its currently not equating to hypercane status is due to the time of the year.

I hope that Melissa will motivate a TCR mention and future research on calibrating Dvorak techniques to account for the tropopause, and the various factors that can influence it -- time of the year for sure, but also time of the day (Melissa's CDO cooling happened drastically at sunset despite likely little changes in strength), possibly latitude, etc.

Back in 2020, I've always had the question of why Eta had an exaggeratingly cool CDO but Iota didn't, despite both peaking at similar intensity. As seen from Melissa now, the answer may have been that Iota peaked in the middle of the day, and Eta at night.