Rita Recon Reports

[tallywx]

Given that Cameron was gusting to 112 mph before the eyewall is even onshore, I'm pretty confident 120 sustained is a pretty good estimate by NHC.

link please?

[jkt21787]

Given that Cameron was gusting to 112 mph before the eyewall is even onshore, I'm pretty confident 120 sustained is a pretty good estimate by NHC.

link please?

Max Mayfield announced it on Fox News about a half hour or less ago. Thats all I have.

Pretty reliable source as far as I'm concerned...

[Droop12]

I think we should all get off Dereks back, he's entitled to his own opinion just as you guys are entitled to yours. Ya'll are quick to be critical of a professional yet I havent seen a forecast or anything from ya. So get off Dereks back and have some respect. Anyways, back to Rita. IMO, Im fairly confident considering Lake Charles which is a good 30 miles inland from the water is expirencing fairly sustained cat 1 conditons well in advance of the eyewall that there is at least a very small area of winds near 120mph. Cameron, LA is about to be hit by the eyewall and they've already had cat 2 conditons. So we'll see in the next few hours.

[jkt21787]

0540. 2936N 09317W 03649 5294 131 116 108 104 120 03359 0000000000
0541 2938N 09318W 03651 5276 128 106 106 092 108 03378 0000000000
0541. 2939N 09317W 03654 5258 128 105 096 080 106 03401 0000000000
0542 2940N 09315W 03662 5250 130 103 090 078 104 03416 0000000000
0542. 2939N 09314W 03661 5251 132 104 092 080 105 03414 0000000000
0543 2938N 09314W 03659 5257 134 108 094 080 109 03407 0000000000
0543. 2937N 09313W 03661 5261 138 112 094 080 114 03405 0000000000
0544 2937N 09312W 03654 5256 142 117 098 080 118 03402 0000000000
0544. 2938N 09311W 03654 5235 142 113 102 082 115 03423 0000000000
0545 2940N 09310W 03660 5214 144 108 092 084 108 03450 0000000000
0545. 2942N 09309W 03660 5200 143 104 064 064 104 03464 0000000000
0546 2944N 09312W 03657 5197 136 101 074 074 102 03465 0000000000
0546. 2945N 09314W 03657 5202 134 100 072 072 101 03460 0000000000
0547 2945N 09317W 03662 5219 128 104 058 058 105 03448 0000000000
0547. 2944N 09320W 03633 5233 122 089 068 068 094 03404 0000000000
0548 2944N 09322W 03664 5245 114 099 064 064 102 03423 0000000000
0548. 2943N 09324W 03675 5260 106 103 060 060 104 03419 0000000000
0549 2942N 09327W 03652 5276 100 107 066 066 107 03381 0000000000
0549. 2941N 09329W 03674 5289 097 103 070 070 108 03389 0000000000
0550 2939N 09330W 03652 5311 103 085 084 084 092 03345 0000000000

Double wind maxima, supportive of typically 120 mph perhaps a bit more.

[tallywx]

Given that Cameron was gusting to 112 mph before the eyewall is even onshore, I'm pretty confident 120 sustained is a pretty good estimate by NHC.

link please?

Max Mayfield announced it on Fox News about a half hour or less ago. Thats all I have.

Pretty reliable source as far as I'm concerned...

Yes, you were right. Here's the station:

http://140.90.121.76/cgi-bin/co-ops_qry ... =View+Data

Station is at Calcasieu Pass, which is right at Cameron, LA. The "WG" column is wind gusts in meters/second. Multiply those numbers by 2.23693636363 to get miles/hour. For example, the 50.1 m/s translates to the 112 mph gust.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this system was normal 117 knots/134.5 mph would be 121 mph. But as derek says this is not a normal storm. In he says it is .8 reducee so that would be 107.5 mph. Both are really strong but one will destroy your roof in one will bring down sky scrapers.

[tallywx]

Double post in succession, but just to add, the station I linked to above updates every 6 minutes. However, it hasn't updated since 24 minutes after the hour, meaning that it's been knocked out, probably by the eyewall. So much for having concrete data from the heart of the storm.

[Derek Ortt]

and the winds are SUSTAINED close to 75 m.p.h.

Yes, we are going to see some 130-140 m.p.h. gusts out of this. I will wager with anyone here that category 3 sustained winds do not occur

[SnowCover]

0540. 2936N 09317W 03649 5294 131 116 108 104 120 03359 0000000000
0541 2938N 09318W 03651 5276 128 106 106 092 108 03378 0000000000
0541. 2939N 09317W 03654 5258 128 105 096 080 106 03401 0000000000
0542 2940N 09315W 03662 5250 130 103 090 078 104 03416 0000000000
0542. 2939N 09314W 03661 5251 132 104 092 080 105 03414 0000000000
0543 2938N 09314W 03659 5257 134 108 094 080 109 03407 0000000000
0543. 2937N 09313W 03661 5261 138 112 094 080 114 03405 0000000000
0544 2937N 09312W 03654 5256 142 117 098 080 118 03402 0000000000
0544. 2938N 09311W 03654 5235 142 113 102 082 115 03423 0000000000
0545 2940N 09310W 03660 5214 144 108 092 084 108 03450 0000000000
0545. 2942N 09309W 03660 5200 143 104 064 064 104 03464 0000000000
0546 2944N 09312W 03657 5197 136 101 074 074 102 03465 0000000000
0546. 2945N 09314W 03657 5202 134 100 072 072 101 03460 0000000000
0547 2945N 09317W 03662 5219 128 104 058 058 105 03448 0000000000
0547. 2944N 09320W 03633 5233 122 089 068 068 094 03404 0000000000
0548 2944N 09322W 03664 5245 114 099 064 064 102 03423 0000000000
0548. 2943N 09324W 03675 5260 106 103 060 060 104 03419 0000000000
0549 2942N 09327W 03652 5276 100 107 066 066 107 03381 0000000000
0549. 2941N 09329W 03674 5289 097 103 070 070 108 03389 0000000000
0550 2939N 09330W 03652 5311 103 085 084 084 092 03345 0000000000

Double wind maxima, supportive of typically 120 mph perhaps a bit more.

If you look at the coordinates, it looks like they are staying in the same area.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Normally 120 knots would support 124 mph at the surface...But if derek is right it supports 110 mph.

[djtil]

lets just call it 115!!

regardless.....with houston,galveston and even to some extent port arthur receiving less than expected i wish the stock market was open tomorrow...will have to wait for monday for the big rally.

[Derek Ortt]

but Matt,

the gusts will be typical of a category 3 hurricane

latest H-Wind shows 98KT, technically a cat 3 hurricane, but due to friction, land likely wont see these winds

and before anyone says anything about who produced it, I will be sure that the lady who made the product finds out as I know her very well

[NorthGaWeather]

and before anyone says anything about who produced it, I will be sure that the lady who made the product finds out as I know her very well

So what. Tell her.

Back to the Cat 3 being sustained. I'd be willing to bet most of the equipment in that area will have failures and we'll never know for sure.

[Derek Ortt]

and its people like you who cause people to die in future hurricanes, by giving them a false sense of security that they survived a cat 4, when they really survived a borderline cat 2/3

We saw last month in Mississippi what a true cat 3 does to the northern Gulf Coast. Apparantly, some have already forgotten

[HurricaneBill]

and its people like you who cause people to die in future hurricanes, by giving them a false sense of security that they survived a cat 4, when they really survived a borderline cat 2/3

We saw last month in Mississippi what a true cat 3 does to the northern Gulf Coast. Apparantly, some have already forgotten

You must think we're all a bunch of fools, don't you Derek?

[CajunMama]

ENOUGH FROM ALL OF YOU. Good gosh...so much bickering...grow up.

[Derek Ortt]

I have just confirmed from the person who did the analysis,

this is a marginal category 3 hurricane still, even though I had expected weakening to a strong 2. The 98KT was using the SFMR flight level reduction method

[logybogy]

Derek Ortt's forecasts for Rita have been ABYSMBAL.

He had the storm hitting Corpus Christi and ignored GFS when it was spot on the money.

He also said it wouldn't become anywhere near as strong as Katrina in the gulf and would max out at Cat 3. In fact it was stronger than Katrina. The third strongest storm on record.

I wouldn't listen to what he has to say. Why are people listening to some 20 year old kid making forecasts on the internet to amuse himself and stroke his ego for attention over the National Hurricane Center with mets with 30+ years experience?

Give me a break.

[NorthGaWeather]

and its people like you who cause people to die in future hurricanes, by giving them a false sense of security that they survived a cat 4, when they really survived a borderline cat 2/3

We saw last month in Mississippi what a true cat 3 does to the northern Gulf Coast. Apparantly, some have already forgotten

Ok, now your being silly. Your grasping and squirming in this discussion since you can't do anything else. I don't think anyone would try to say a storm is a cat 4 when in reality its a borderline 2/3. Ivan was a solid/moderate 3, this is a weak 3 borderline 2. Katrina was a strong Cat 3/borderline 4 in MS, and a 4 in SE LA.

If you knew have as much as you claim, you'd be dangerous.

[Derek Ortt]

yes, I've been awful

but for ego? I would say something to you, but I would be banned. So I will say NOTHING