ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1821 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:22 am

sphelps8681 wrote:This is from Accuweather this am.

A window of movement ranging from Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico exists for possible storm tracks next week, as the system is expected to emerge on the northwestern side of the Yucatan Peninsula later Sunday.

Waters are very warm in the western Caribbean and in much of the Gulf of Mexico. While the system will battle with the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, strengthening prior to and after engaging the land mass is inevitable.

The system will pull a great deal of tropical moisture northward on its eastern side. As a result, regardless of the exact track, squalls and building seas are likely not only over the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but also over eastern areas.

While a track over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico would mean substantially less impact on the oil spill area, building seas and gusty thunderstorms from the tropical vale of moisture could cause some hazards and disruptions.

A track over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico would mean the roughest conditions, and prove to be the most disruptive over the oil spill area. A south to southeasterly flow on the eastern flank of such a storm track would drive the most oil toward the central Gulf Coast.

In either case, the earliest we would have landfall would be late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some possibility of the system's forward speed slowing, which would keep nail biting going through next week.


one thing is for sure, they will verify with "Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico" :lol:
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Re:

#1822 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:23 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Alex looks like a storm from the Western Pacific, wow

Indeed it does. I haven't seen an Atlantic storm looking like this in recent memory.
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#1823 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:32 am

IS anyone going to post Recon findings? (In the Recon thread?)
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#1824 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:34 am

A very large circulation with this storm. Good thing it is close to land and then crossing the Yucatan, had this storm headed NW toward the Yucatan Channel and then into the open Gulf it could have made Katrina and Ike look like child's play in size and scope of the disaster.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1825 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:37 am

Good example of June climatology and the difference between the eastern and western Caribbean.


This system is the result of an early active Atlantic ITCZ.
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Re: Re:

#1826 Postby BigA » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:42 am

Chacor wrote:Indeed it does. I haven't seen an Atlantic storm looking like this in recent memory.



I wonder if it is because Alex formed from a long area of cloudiness and low pressure (trough) in a similar manner to the way a lot of West Pacific storms form.

I'm trying to remember if other storms that formed in the Caribbean from Monsoon trough type setups had extremely high cloud tops. Wilma comes to mind, but it was a special case.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1827 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:47 am

Good Lord! Has anyone seen the black IR explosion on the AVN!



E - N - E - R - G - Y
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1828 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:49 am

The 11 AM forecast makes it a hurricane as it gets closer to Mexico.

96HR VT 30/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT
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Re: Re:

#1829 Postby MWatkins » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:50 am

BigA wrote:
Chacor wrote:Indeed it does. I haven't seen an Atlantic storm looking like this in recent memory.



I wonder if it is because Alex formed from a long area of cloudiness and low pressure (trough) in a similar manner to the way a lot of West Pacific storms form.

I'm trying to remember if other storms that formed in the Caribbean from Monsoon trough type setups had extremely high cloud tops. Wilma comes to mind, but it was a special case.


Great point! I was just thinking the same kind of thing looking at the satellite presentation this morning. This looks a lot like a developing WPAC storm, especially the way the clouds are curving/fanning so far out...just incredible to see this happen in the Atlantic.

The good news is it could take a while to for the inner core to become well established before it makes landfall 1. The bad news is the large structure should make it "easier" for the storm to recover once it gets to the BOC and reaches water again. With nothing lurking (that I can tell) shear wise, it could be a decent cane on the other side.

MW
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#1830 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:51 am

Image
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#1831 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:52 am

I have to say, this storm may not weaken much over the yucatan. it is so large, it's bands will keep drawing in warm water even when it's over land.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1832 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:52 am

Image
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1833 Postby thetruesms » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:54 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a plot of some of the better models (OK, the Canadian is in there, too), along with the OFCI (official interpreted) track from the NHC. GFDL continues to shift south and now takes the center into Brownsville. It should continue moving south today. Note that the only track NOT well inland in 5 days is NHC. They're WAY too slow with moving Alex on the last two days, just 1-2 kts forward speed. I have Alex inland about 120 miles south of Brownsville before noon Wednesday, about 96 hours from now. Oh, and I'm fairly confident it'll be a hurricane, possibly Cat 2. Just don't see the shear to hurt it in the Gulf. And with a good 48-60 hrs over water, it could become a somewhat larger than average hurricane. Just depends on how much it is disrupted over the Yucatan. Such a large circulation won't be disrupted as much, though.

[img]http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/AlexModels.gif[img]
I'm on board with this thinking, too. Actually, I had been looking at 100-120 miles S of Brownsville, and thus a little bit later, but I've been kind of questioning that and thinking about sliding down the coast a bit more.

While I don't think the Yucatan will very strongly disrupt Alex's circulation, I think it should require enough time to get back together to preclude it getting to cat 2, and rather be a solid cat 1. I could definitely see it at 2, though, if it survives the Yucatan well or brings itself back together more quickly on the other side.
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#1834 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:56 am

Tropical Storm Alex bears down on the Yucatan :rarrow: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1519

Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:12 GMT le 26 juin 2010

The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 is here. Tropical Storm Alex formed last might from an African tropical wave that plowed through the Caribbean this week. Alex's formation location is a typical one for June tropical storms, and the formation date of June 25 is also a fairly typical date for the first storm of the season to form (we average about one June named storm every two years in the Atlantic.) Heavy rainfall will ramp up through the day in Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as Alex continues to intensify, and flooding from these heavy rains will be the main concern from Alex today and Sunday. Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorm are growing in intensity and areal coverage at a respectable pace. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over the storm, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is not a problem for Alex. We currently don't have a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm, so we will have to wait until 2pm this afternoon to get an updated estimate of Alex's surface winds. The latest satellite estimates of Alex's winds at 8am EDT put the storm's strongest winds at 40 mph.

Forecast for Alex
As I discussed in last night's post, an examination of the nineteen tropical cyclones that have formed in the Western Caribbean and hit the Yucatan Peninsula over the past twenty years reveals that 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. The ones that died all took a more southerly path across the Yucatan, spending more time over land than Alex will. Alex is large enough and moving far enough north across the Yucatan that passage over the peninsula will not kill it. So, will Alex follow the path climatology says is more likely, and make a second landfall along the Mexican Gulf Coast?


The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. Some of yesterday's model runs predicted that this trough would be strong enough to pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, the models that were predicting this (the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models) are all backing off on that prediction. It now appears likely that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. Based on the current trends in the models, Alex's tropical storm force winds are likely to stay well south of the oil slick region (Figure 2.) I put the odds of Alex bringing tropical storm-force winds to the oil slick region at 10%. The most significant impact Alex will likely have on the oil slick region is to bring 2 - 4 foot swells that may wash oil over some of the containment booms. These swells will reach the oil slick region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Continued intensification of Alex is likely today, up until landfall. It is a good thing the storm waited until last night to get organized; had it formed a day earlier, it could have easily been a hurricane in the Western Caribbean today. Once Alex emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, it will likely take the storm at least 24 hours to get re-organized, particularly since the total ocean heat content is low for the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. Steering currents will be weak in the Gulf next week, and it appears that Alex will have time to intensify into a hurricane before making its second landfall along the South Texas/northern Mexico coast. Wind shear is expected to be light, and dry air not a significant impediment. Most of the models are calling for landfall on Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this delayed until Thursday. I give Alex a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1835 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:20 am

thetruesms wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's a plot of some of the better models (OK, the Canadian is in there, too), along with the OFCI (official interpreted) track from the NHC. GFDL continues to shift south and now takes the center into Brownsville. It should continue moving south today. Note that the only track NOT well inland in 5 days is NHC. They're WAY too slow with moving Alex on the last two days, just 1-2 kts forward speed. I have Alex inland about 120 miles south of Brownsville before noon Wednesday, about 96 hours from now. Oh, and I'm fairly confident it'll be a hurricane, possibly Cat 2. Just don't see the shear to hurt it in the Gulf. And with a good 48-60 hrs over water, it could become a somewhat larger than average hurricane. Just depends on how much it is disrupted over the Yucatan. Such a large circulation won't be disrupted as much, though.

[img]http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/AlexModels.gif[img]
I'm on board with this thinking, too. Actually, I had been looking at 100-120 miles S of Brownsville, and thus a little bit later, but I've been kind of questioning that and thinking about sliding down the coast a bit more.

While I don't think the Yucatan will very strongly disrupt Alex's circulation, I think it should require enough time to get back together to preclude it getting to cat 2, and rather be a solid cat 1. I could definitely see it at 2, though, if it survives the Yucatan well or brings itself back together more quickly on the other side.


I concur with these two. I am much less agitated this morning with the current track and intensity forecast. I think the potential is there for a stronger Alex...but I am glad they are at least calling for a hurricane. I am also glad the models shifted south so they (the NHC) could actually feel confident enough to more the forecast to something more realistic. In my brief this a.m., I actually didn't feel the need to alter their forecast track :cheesy:
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#1836 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:24 am

I hope the ridging along the north Gulf Coast and over Florida can hang onto that type of overall pattern throughout the summer, we need the break from this season!!
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Re:

#1837 Postby CourierPR » Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:29 am

Dean4Storms wrote:I hope the ridging along the north Gulf Coast and over Florida can hang onto that type of overall pattern throughout the summer, we need the break from this season!!
Interesting point because if a storm sweeps in across Florida from the east, you could have a different outcome.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1838 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:31 am

Alex continues to get stronger according to dvoral technnique.To clarify,this is not official information as the NHC are.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt01L.html

Code: Select all

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  26 JUN 2010    Time :   141500 UTC
      Lat :   17:15:33 N     Lon :   85:59:34 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.5 / 994.2mb/ 55.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.5     3.7     4.3

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.2mb

 Center Temp : -72.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

 Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1839 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:33 am

I know there are several here who would prefer Bastarding burning at the stake but I thought he made an interesting point in his 9AM post wondering the answer to this question: "Why is TPC so slow to react?" He said that he thinks this is already a 60mph storm - from the report of a ship 120 miles north with 39KT winds sustained and from the look of the storm. He also said he thinks the answer to the question is because TPC wants to "self verify" and is too glued to models.

Anyway, interesting take. You do have to wonder.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ALEX - DISCUSSION

#1840 Postby flamingosun » Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:36 am

cycloneye wrote:Cozumel web cam. What do I see in that shot,a cruise ship with a storm nearing?

http://www.cozumelinsider.com/WEBCAM



That would probably be either the Carnival Inspiration (homeport Tampa) or Carnival Elation (homeport Mobile).
And You're right, it's surprising ...
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