2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

The thing i take away from todays runs is that the models are back on board for the 12z runs

[gatorcane]

It seems the Euro tries to spin up the vorticity currently located just north of the SE Bahamas. Look carefully and you will see a spin:

[USTropics]

I think what we're seeing here from the model output today is a typical monsoon gyre that takes a while to come together. We may get something to form at the surface but with competing vorts it is going to take some time to come together. I don't think we see the right away development like we saw with Matthew.

I anticipate a lot of upcoming nights of watching convection pulse and then wane during the day for a good week. Eventually a true center will dominate, models will have a hard time figuring that out until we come into closer range.

[gatorcane]

Quite a vorticity near/over SE Bahamas. Euro is developing, anybody care to start a thread?

[ronjon]

Yikes..both ECM and GFS showing something brewing in the western caribbean in late October. Not liking that one bit.

[gatorcane]

The strange Euro run ends with a low in the NW Caribbean meandering:

[floridasun78]

i want see models show by Monday i think a bit early call we may see low form in sw Caribbean

[SFLcane]

That seems like either no development or some weak non tropical low on the euro.

[jlauderdal]

That seems like either no development or some weak non tropical low on the euro.

why do you think that is a non tropical low?

[SFLcane]

That seems like either no development or some weak non tropical low on the euro.

why do you think that is a non tropical low?

Front / ......low pressures/ Baroclinic ?

[northjaxpro]

I know this. This break from tropical activity is desperately needed around here across NE FL and across Coastal GA, SC, Eastern NC and portios of Virginia. I really hop nothing major comes out of this area over the next weeek to 10 days. The last thing we need is another threat of a significant tropical cyclone impacting this region. We have had four of them impact this area this season to this point, so you know why I am feeling this way right now.

However, this being said above what I mentioned, I am very leary about climatology and the Western and NW Caribbean being the most favorable and dangerous region for tropical cyclones to thrive and grow this time of year. I had to tke a few days to break from model watching after Matthew's brush here on Northeast Florida and the cleanup here after the storm.

One thing I see which I highly wonder about is a potential storm just hanging out down into the NW Caribbean for a solid week? I would not rule that out, but with a progressive pattern with the troughs swinging through the CONUS, I would find a storm lingering around down there unusual. I would have to think a trough will pull it out from down there within a week in my opinion. We will watch it closely.

[Hurricaneman]

I know this. This break from tropical activity is desperately needed around here across NE FL and across Coastal GA, SC, Eastern NC and portios of Virginia. I really hop nothing major comes out of this area over the next weeek to 10 days. The last thing we need is another threat of a significant tropical cyclone impacting this region. We have had four of them impact this area this season to this point, so you know why I am feeling this way right now.

However, this being said above what I mentioned, I am very leary about climatology and the Western and NW Caribbean being the most favorable and dangerous region for tropical cyclones to thrive and grow this time of year. I had to tke a few days to break from model watching after Matthew's brush here on Northeast Florida and the cleanup here after the storm.

One thing I see which I highly wonder about is a potential storm just hanging out down into the NW Caribbean for a solid week? I would not rule that out, but with a progressive pattern with the troughs swinging through the CONUS, I would find a storm lingering around down there unusual. I would have to think a trough will pull it out from down there within a week in my opinion. We will watch it closely.

One thing you have to remember is Wilma stayed in the same general area for a week or so so its not impossible for this feature to do the same

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with a weak meandering low over the SW Caribbean at 168 hours:

[northjaxpro]

I know this. This break from tropical activity is desperately needed around here across NE FL and across Coastal GA, SC, Eastern NC and portios of Virginia. I really hop nothing major comes out of this area over the next weeek to 10 days. The last thing we need is another threat of a significant tropical cyclone impacting this region. We have had four of them impact this area this season to this point, so you know why I am feeling this way right now.

However, this being said above what I mentioned, I am very leary about climatology and the Western and NW Caribbean being the most favorable and dangerous region for tropical cyclones to thrive and grow this time of year. I had to tke a few days to break from model watching after Matthew's brush here on Northeast Florida and the cleanup here after the storm.

One thing I see which I highly wonder about is a potential storm just hanging out down into the NW Caribbean for a solid week? I would not rule that out, but with a progressive pattern with the troughs swinging through the CONUS, I would find a storm lingering around down there unusual. I would have to think a trough will pull it out from down there within a week in my opinion. We will watch it closely.

One thing you have to remember is Wilma stayed in the same general area for a week or so so its not impossible for this feature to do the same

Oh no, I am aware it is possible for tropical cyclones to meander around down there for a week or more. Yes, Wilma is the obvious example, and I referenced that the scenario of another storm meandering around down there for a week is definitely possible. I am just storm weary I guess after being impacted by 4 tropical cyclones this season here. I haven't had to cut so many trees in years around here. Well, at least I do not have to worry about firewood having to use come winter in a couple of months uh? I just am ready and done with the season as much as I love and follow these systems for a living. But, we still have at least another month to go before we can say adios to this active season for sure.

[jlauderdal]

That seems like either no development or some weak non tropical low on the euro.

why do you think that is a non tropical low?

Front / ......low pressures/ Baroclinic ?

ok, the only thing i see is lowering pressures which is not confined to non tropical lows...no front or baraclonic setup...lets see how it plays out

[Hurricaneman]

I made a list of possibilities for what this system could do using the last 20 years of storms in October\ early November and their landfall strengths from the Central\Western Caribbean

2014 Hanna 40mph landfall Honduras 40mph
2013 Karen 65mph no landfall
2012 Sandy 115mph landfalls Jamaica 75mph Eastern Cuba 115mph New Jersey 85mph
2011 Rina 115mph Landfall Yucatan 70mph
2010 Paula 105mph Landfalls Honduras 45mph Western Cuba 40mph
2010 Richard 100mph landfall Belize 100mph
2009 Ida 105mph landfalls Nicaragua 80mph Alabama 40mph
2008 Marco 65mph landfall Veracruz 65mph
2008 Omar 130mph landfall St Croix 80mph
2008 Paloma 145mph landfall Eastern Cuba 105mph
2007 Noel 80mph landfall Hispaniola 50mph Eastern Cuba 40mph
2005 Stan 80mph landfalls Quinta Roo 50mph South of Veracruz 80mph
2005 Wilma 185mph landfalls Cancun 150mph Naples 120mph
2005 Alpha 50mph landfall Hispaniola 50mph
2005 Beta 115mph landfall Nicaragua 115mph
2002 TD14 35mph landfall Central Cuba 30mph
2001 Michelle 140mph landfall Central Cuba 140mph
2000 Keith 140mph landfalls Belize City 75mph Tampico 85mph
1999 Irene 110mph landfalls Western Cuba 60mph Key West 75mph Cape Sable 75mph
1999 Katrina 40mph landfall Nicaragua 40mph
1998 Mitch 180mph landfalls Honduras 80mph Naples 65mph
1996 Kyle 50mph landfall Belize 50mph
1996 Lili 115mph Landfall Central Cuba 100mph

[gatorcane]

If you track the 850MB vort from the latest 12Z GFS run, it seems the tropical wave near the Southern Lesser Antilles is the one that gets things going in the SW Caribbean:

[CourierPR]

In his daily weather video, Meteorologist Joe Bastardi said that once Nicole moves out, the system in the SW Caribbean will start to develop.

[blp]

Patience is needed on this one since it will be a slow developer it appears. This one if it develops could start out quite large in size due to its broad nature.

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 more bullish, also shows it moving slowly away from Nicaragua coastline: