ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[MJGarrison]

How is Florence Tracking right now vs the models? I’m not very good at figuring out the COC.


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[Visioen]

I keep thinking about a post several days ago about Wesh 2 giving the all clear for Florida. It's sad really.

[chaser1]

Does the GFS model tend to underestimate or overestimate the ridging versus the Euro? As Florence gets further west before turning northwest, I wonder if that will allow more time for the blocking high to weaken and steer Florence father north as the GFS model shows.

I've found that the GFS has a tendency to underscore heights within 500mb high pressure ridges. There's been forecasts where the GFS has projected hurricanes to plow directly into the heart of a strong ridge.

[meriland29]

Florence ends up a hair south of previous run, but 7mb weaker as well...however I am not putting a whole lot of faith into their intensity models thus far, but it is still notable...

[Ken711]

Does the GFS model tend to underestimate or overestimate the ridging versus the Euro? As Florence gets further west before turning northwest, I wonder if that will allow more time for the blocking high to weaken and steer Florence father north as the GFS model shows.

I've found that the GFS has a tendency to underscore heights within 500mb high pressure ridges. There's been forecasts where the GFS has projected hurricanes to plow directly into the heart of a strong ridge.

Thanks.

[chaser1]

All right??! Who broke the FV3-GFS 18Z?? C'mon, fess-up lol. It's been stuck at 90 hr. for quite a while now.

[Aric Dunn]

How is Florence Tracking right now vs the models? I’m not very good at figuring out the COC.


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IT is at about 24.5N and still moving south of west.

[eastcoastFL]

I remember Irma was EC, then EC of fl, then at the last minute rode up the west coast. Much of Miami had evacuated as the GFS and other models were consistent on a direct strike which ended up not happening

It didn’t occour as you present it. First off, the difference between florida’s East and west coasts is about 100 miles. That’s negligible 3 days out. The GFS and other models slowly progressed to the west coast in those final days. It’s not as if the models were notably off the mark for Irma, once they honed in on a direct Florida impact.

It Wasnt just the models it was also the nhc track. Me and thousands upon thousands of people left se fl and went north and west. I then drove back home to palm city the night before it hit.

[AutoPenalti]

All right??! Who broke the FV3-GFS 18Z?? C'mon, fess-up lol. It's been stuck at 90 hr. for quite a while now.

It tends to do that.

[tolakram]

FV3-GFS landfall

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looks like landfall outer banks

[SouthFLTropics]

Important to note that this is another SW trend from a model. The question is how long will this trend continue???

We get 3 to 4 more runs with SW trends and The Bahamas will start to come into play.

[Ken711]

Important to note that this is another SW trend from a model. The question is how long will this trend continue???

We get 3 to 4 more runs with SW trends and The Bahamas will start to come into play.

But the FV3-GFS still landfalls in roughly the same location as the GFS.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Important to note that this is another SW trend from a model. The question is how long will this trend continue???

We get 3 to 4 more runs with SW trends and The Bahamas will start to come into play.

But the FV3-GFS still landfalls in roughly the same location as the GFS.

Which is a big shift for this model. It wasn’t doing that until now. It only takes a few days more of “a bit west of the precious run” for new players to be introduced to the table.

[chaser1]

All right??! Who broke the FV3-GFS 18Z?? C'mon, fess-up lol. It's been stuck at 90 hr. for quite a while now.

It tends to do that.

Odd. Does the 18Z run typically do that or is it just common for that particularly model at any given time?

[AxaltaRacing24]

All right??! Who broke the FV3-GFS 18Z?? C'mon, fess-up lol. It's been stuck at 90 hr. for quite a while now.

It tends to do that.

Odd. Does the 18Z run typically do that or is it just common for that particularly model at any given time?

It happens all the time.

[AutoPenalti]

All right??! Who broke the FV3-GFS 18Z?? C'mon, fess-up lol. It's been stuck at 90 hr. for quite a while now.

It tends to do that.

Odd. Does the 18Z run typically do that or is it just common for that particularly model at any given time?

Happens at any given time, sometimes they are not uploaded to the server quick enough.

[Bocadude85]

18Z GFS ensembles are quite a bit southwest of the 12z, for now the models are really zeroing in on the Carolinas

[Siker]

18z HWRF is a 915mb Cat 5.

[Ken711]

Important to note that this is another SW trend from a model. The question is how long will this trend continue???

We get 3 to 4 more runs with SW trends and The Bahamas will start to come into play.

But the FV3-GFS still landfalls in roughly the same location as the GFS.

Which is a big shift for this model. It wasn’t doing that until now. It only takes a few days more of “a bit west of the precious run” for new players to be introduced to the table.

Thanks, where was the FV3-GFS landfalling before? I was able to see that far at Tropical tidbits.