NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Melissa looks and feels like a late-season, high-end WestPac super typhoon

[sasha_B]

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

With how rapidly the CDG is building in the W half I think Melissa is about to max out the scale on Raw T#.

T8.5 Melissa would truly be something. And given the mismatch between ground conditions and satellite appearance, and the fact that (as the NHC has repeatedly stressed) a Cat 4/5 is a Cat 4/5, there's no reason not to root for it..... but alas, we're back down to a mere CI 8.1 / T# 8.2.

[zzzh]

Extrap 902.8mb!!!

[CrazyC83]

903 mb on the Air Force plane. This seems to be going upwards again...

[CrazyC83]

Extrap 902.8mb!!!

Also with the trends, you could make an easy case for 155 kt and possibly 160 kt.

[Keldeo1997]

uhhhh

902 with 20 kt barb so we are very close....

[Beef Stew]

Wow. I didn’t see that coming.

[Teban54]

NOAA pass: 162 kt FL to the SSE, 152 kt FL to the NNW, 909.2 mb extrap

AF pass: 156 kt FL to the SE, 902.8 mb extrap

Why the huge difference with their extrap pressures, though? Did NOAA miss the center?

[zzzh]

Dropsonde has 907/6kt so not 903mb yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Melissa looks and feels like a late-season, high-end WestPac super typhoon

[aspen]

902.8 extrap, holy cow. She’s going nuts again.

Edit: NOAA is still reporting 909-910mb. FL winds went up though.

[HurricaneRyan]

Is this supposed to still make landfall in Jamaica? the further west it gets the more I think it will miss it and then make landfall in Cuba instead.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA pass: 162 kt FL to the SSE, 152 kt FL to the NNW, 909.2 mb extrap

AF pass: 156 kt FL to the SE, 902.8 mb extrap

Why the huge difference with their extrap pressures, though? Did NOAA miss the center?

That seems likely.

[CrazyC83]

Is this supposed to still make landfall in Jamaica? the further west it gets the more I think it will miss it and then make landfall in Cuba instead.

Yes, in western Jamaica.

But if it misses Jamaica, that is terrible for Cuba, since it won't weaken nearly as much due to land interaction (if at all).

[Beef Stew]

Quite puzzled by the discrepancy between NOAA and AF here, unless Kermit missed the center.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh wow, 902.8?

Remember when sub-900 mbar storms normally happened every decade, if not longer?

Should Melissa actually make it below 900, 2024-2025 would have the extraordinary distinction of being the first time in recorded history that sub-900 mbar storms happened in back to back years.

[Hurricane2022]

That's a drop of 6-7 mb from the last pass. Should this continue and we may see something like 898-896 mb in the next pass. Another historic and unforgettable night to us, especially for the people of Jamaica and Cuba.

[Teban54]

Quite puzzled by the discrepancy between NOAA and AF here, unless Kermit missed the center.

Let's wait for the AF drop to confirm. NOAA's eye drop is already available (907 mb / 6 kt).

[tolakram]

It hit the ridge, wobbled a bit, now stationary to just a bit of eastward motion IMO.

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-2&checked=latlon-usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[Jr0d]

Wow...we may see a sub 900mb storm overnight. Just incredible.

I just hope recon brought extra dropsondes, I think the AF may have ran out this morning as their were none dropped on their final eye pass.

We may may get a chance to see a higher winds from the dropsondes than this morning's 210kts @917mb pressure altitude(iirc the surface at that drop was 935mb)