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Winter Weather Discussion

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andycottle
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#1821 Postby andycottle » Wed Feb 09, 2005 8:37 pm

Anthony....have a nice and safe trip to Utah! Hey you know...bet you`ll get an awsome view of Mt.Rainier from up above. Oh what joy it is to see Rainier on your way out of Washington!:) Get some pics of the mountain if ya can.. -- Andy
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TT-SEA

#1822 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:36 pm

Anthony... I totally agree with you about this sunny weather. It is AWESOME!!

Have fun in Utah.
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#1823 Postby R-Dub » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Have a safe and awesome trip Anthony!! And like Andy says, your view should be spectacular!! Last time I flew down to San Francisco for a business meeting, it was crystal clear the entire way, and the pilots flew right near MT Rainier, then veered back to the west and we flew right along the coast line most all of the way down......That was an awesome view at 35,000 FT!!

Anyway I agree with Anthony about wanting spring, but I have seen this before, you just get into the spring/summer mood during a mild streak in Feb and think winter is over, then BAM!!! You get snow on the first day of spring!! And nearly a foot of it! I think in 2002 I was out jetskiing in Febuary, then March came........We all know what happened in March of '02!

Current temp 34.2 degrees
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#1824 Postby invisible » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:47 pm

18z model shows that we will get some snow on Saturday night with 528mb. It shows that we will have cold and dry on Sunday and Monday with lower mb. I dont think that kind of event will happen in most places that sits in Washington ,but i think that Whatcom will get a little of snow. I hope that kind of event will happen here early next week. :wink:
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#1825 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:48 pm

Just to keep me honest... actuals in red.

TT's forecast (Sea-Tac):

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-42 Hi-51 Lo-39 Partly Cloudy
Friday - Rain developing Hi-47 Lo-40 Hi-50 Lo-41 Showers/Sun Breaks
Saturday - Showers Hi-44 Lo-37 Hi-44 Lo-35 Cloudy
Sunday - Showers Hi-42 Lo-35 Hi-43 Lo-37 Showers
Monday - Showers / Sun Breaks Hi-42 Lo-30 Hi-46 Lo-35 Partly Cloudy
Tuesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-48 Lo-32 Hi-48 Lo-31 Sunny
Wednesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-50 Lo-36 Hi-49 Lo-33 Sunny
Thursday - Partly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-38
Friday - Mostly Sunny Hi-59 Lo-40


Missed the high today at Sea-Tac by one stinking degree!! It was actually 52 degrees in Bellevue today and 50 degrees at NOAA Sandpoint. So I was right there. Also... I was close with the low but it dipped to 33 degrees for one hour and then back up to 36 degrees. Damn radiational cooling... so tough to predict.

Anyways... 54 degrees looks good for tomorrow (maybe 56 or 57) and Friday should be the same. So I could be under tomorrow and over on Friday. All in all... pretty good.
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#1826 Postby R-Dub » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:52 pm

I wouldn't say this yr was quite as bad as '97-'98 in terms of lowland snow and cold, that was quite a good stretch the first half of January! Though for the mountains this is as bad as or worse then 1977 (worst winter for snow since now) I think it was. For here though, in Northern Snohomish Co we had 5 days straight of snow falling at least to some degree. 3" total snowfall, and temps in the low to mid 30's for highs for two weeks. To give an example, the golf course has been closed a total of 15 days this winter due to cold and snow, in the winter of '97-'98 it was closed for only 5 days with about 2" total snowfall. The worst winter down here in recent memory has to be '99-'00!! We had NO snowfall and the course was only closed 1 day because of cold temps. That was a horrible winter for lowlands, but huge for the mountains.
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#1827 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:56 pm

Actually... 850mb temperatures tomorrow approach +9C so it could be in the low 60's in places. The cool start will temper this though.

850mb temps actually cool on Friday ahead of the trough. So in retrospect I should have flipped Thursday and Friday and it would probably be perfect.
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#1828 Postby invisible » Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:59 pm

Current condition for Lynden, Washington
At 6:45
Dry
Temperature: 34.2 °F (1.2 °C)
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind direction: West
Windchill: 34.2 °F
DewPoint: 28.3 °F
Humidity: 79 %
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#1829 Postby AnthonyC » Wed Feb 09, 2005 10:50 pm

The 1999-2000 winter season was bad for lowland snow, but we had TWO decent-sized windstorms and plenty of mountain snow. That compensates for the lack of lowland snow.

This season, we've had NO windstorms, one little lowland snow event and a few pineapple expresses...but TERRIBLE mountain snow. This will probably be the worst winter season for mountain snow...then again, the 1977-1978 season never saw the ski resorts open.

I just want spring and summer. I've been in ALOT better mood these past few days and I really think it's because of the sunny weather. Walking from my school's parking lot to campus is alot better when you can see where you're going...and it's not completely dark and cold.

Anthony

A little warmer than last night...currently 40F with CLEAR, DARK SKIES!!! HAHAHAHAHA...BRING ON SUMMER!!!
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#1830 Postby R-Dub » Wed Feb 09, 2005 10:58 pm

Yeah the last few days have been great, but I wish it was warmer like last week!! How good would a 70 degree day feel with the bright warm sun hitting your face! AHHHHH 8-) At work a couple of our cold areas in the shade, the frost never melted, it has been building for the last 2 days, almost looks like its snow its so white.

Currently 33.7 degrees
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TT-SEA

#1831 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Feb 09, 2005 11:04 pm

That frost will go tomorrow with higher dewpoints and 10 degrees warmer.
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#1832 Postby W13 » Wed Feb 09, 2005 11:16 pm

Currently 35 F as of 8:16 PM
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#1833 Postby R-Dub » Wed Feb 09, 2005 11:29 pm

This pic was taken at my moms place in Moses Lake when I was over there visiting last year. It was a July evening around 9:00PM and the temp was still in the mid 80's. Talk about a night to just hang out sitting in the lounge chair, and watching the sunset wearing shorts, and sipping on a Corona. I WANT SUMMER NOW!!!!!!!!!! See links......................
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph
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#1834 Postby snow_wizzard » Wed Feb 09, 2005 11:37 pm

Little talk, so far, about the northerly flow and low 850mb temps for early next week. The last few runs have certainly been chilly. We will see how it all unfolds. I am going to be very tight lipped on this for now.

At any rate, another cold one tonight. Very light offshore flow and no clouds could spell some mid 20s once again. I am astonished at all of this talk about being ready for summer. There is still so much time for cold, snow, wind, rain, and nastiness! The El Nino is now gone, so who knows what could still be possible. Feb 1951 had weather very similar to this for the final 2/3 of the month, and then March arrived and buried us with snow. All of the models have been showing 51 as an analog year for the past two weeks, on all but a few days. We could flip into a different pattern at any time without warning and still have a real winter. You just never know. If the El Nino was still going, I would say it's over, but with it gone a change is likely.
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#1835 Postby andycottle » Wed Feb 09, 2005 11:48 pm

Hi all!:) We to have clear skies and temp of 35 here at 8:52pm. DP 36, humidity 100%, and baro at 30.15 and steady. -- Andy
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#1836 Postby R-Dub » Wed Feb 09, 2005 11:58 pm

00z GFS does indeed look chilly, we shall see what happens, at this point I have no clue what is going to happen..........Just going to go with the flow, whatever happens, happens!

Goodnight all!

2/9/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:56:06 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 33.3
Humidity (%) 98.4
Wind (mph) NNW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.33
Dew Point: 32.9 ºF
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TT-SEA

#1837 Postby TT-SEA » Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:01 am

I agree with snow_wizzard on the pattern change for March.

I agree with everyone else on LOVING this weather. Wanting dark and cold is very strange to me.

Next week is looking very similar to this week and we are all loving the spring weather. Don't get too excited Wizzard.
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#1838 Postby AnthonyC » Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:16 am

Wow, just when the GFS had some consistency, the 00z run is throwing another loop into the mix. This run is ALOT colder than the past several runs...500 mb heights are down to 528 at one point next week. What's the deal? Probably just a fluke. I honestly don't want any cold/arctic weather...just bring on sunshine and warm weather!!

Anthony
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#1839 Postby snow_wizzard » Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:29 am

Anthony....You have got to be kidding! Unless, you are just saying that to throw the weather off....As a weather buff, you have got to be hoping for some excitement before summer comes. At least I would think so.

It is hard to call below normal temps spring weather. I know it's sunny and all, but we are having temps below freezing for about 12 hours each day. Not conducive to plant development. The average low at my place is down 33.4 for the month now and will be dropping.

Current Covington conditions...temp 32...dew point 29

TT...keep an eye on those surface pressure maps for next week. Not looking good for warmth at all! Way to much Canadian outflow.
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#1840 Postby TT-SEA » Thu Feb 10, 2005 12:35 am

Snow-Wizzard... the sunshine and warmth during the day feels EXACTLY like spring. Most places in the metro area never even got below freezing last night... or maybe just down to it. There was very little frost at dawn this morning from Issaquah, through Bellevue, and down to Renton. Tomorrow morning will generally be the same or slightly warmer.

This sure as hell beats a cold, miserable rain and 35 degrees with dark clouds!!!!!!!!!!

No question.

I think Anthony is dead serious.
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