Tropical Storm Alberto

[JonathanBelles]

I don't wanna go to bed! What is he flares up again like last night?

my thought exactly

[Stormcenter]

Here is a better loop showing Alberto's current motion.
The big question as some others have already posted is
will we see a blow up of convection before landfall or not.


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I don't wanna go to bed! What is he flares up again like last night?

my thought exactly

The night flare ups scare me. I know this is no Wilma or Katrina, but I will never forget waking up 8/28/05 and finding out Katrina was a 5 or waking up to go to school and finding out Wilma was the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.

[JonathanBelles]

I don't wanna go to bed! What is he flares up again like last night?

my thought exactly

The night flare ups scare me. I know this is no Wilma or Katrina, but I will never forget waking up 8/28/05 and finding out Katrina was a 5 or waking up to go to school and finding out Wilma was the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.

i had to walk to shcool most of those days in 2004 and 05 knowing there was a hurricane coming

[whereverwx]

Hmm... it's very naked, but hmm...?

[Coredesat]

13/0545 UTC 28.7N 84.5W T2.0/2.5 ALBERTO

[P.K.]

55kts

WHXX01 KWBC 130640
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO (AL012006) ON 20060613 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060613 0600 060613 1800 060614 0600 060614 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.8N 84.4W 31.0N 83.1W 33.8N 81.5W 36.9N 77.1W
BAMM 28.8N 84.4W 30.3N 84.1W 31.9N 83.6W 33.4N 81.5W
A98E 28.8N 84.4W 30.3N 83.3W 32.3N 81.5W 35.0N 77.4W
LBAR 28.8N 84.4W 30.2N 82.9W 32.2N 81.0W 34.2N 77.6W
SHIP 55KTS 52KTS 51KTS 49KTS
DSHP 55KTS 43KTS 32KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060615 0600 060616 0600 060617 0600 060618 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.5N 70.2W 48.2N 55.9W 53.2N 36.4W 51.3N 16.6W
BAMM 34.5N 76.1W 39.3N 64.1W 45.4N 54.7W 49.0N 41.1W
A98E 38.5N 71.3W 45.6N 56.7W 51.4N 35.6W 47.6N 15.7W
LBAR 36.8N 72.2W 45.4N 56.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 46KTS 45KTS 33KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 29KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 84.4W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 27.5N LONM12 = 85.4W DIRM12 = 44DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 25.8N LONM24 = 87.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

[WxGuy1]

Hmm... it's very naked, but hmm...?

Which explains, at least partially, why the NHC dropped the winds to 65mph on the intermediate advisory. With the exception of yesterday early to mid morning, Alberto has been poorly organized, with little in the way of convection near the center. Of course, this shouldn't come as much of a surprise, given the shear.

I don't think I've seen too many 65-70mph tropical storms with no convection near it's center, instead with very dry air atop it's low-level circulation center. The water vapor image says a lot --> http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

We may see another "flare-up" yet today, but the dry air aloft in the core of the storm certainly wouldn't argue that it is likely. Tropical cyclones are warm-core by definition, and dry-air entrainment into individual updraft/convective cells can not only reduce updraft intensity (thereby reducing moisture flux and latent heating -- the "heat source" of tropical cyclones), but also lead to evaporational cooling and stronger downdrafts ("rain-cooled" outflow -- not something you want to see a lot of in tropical cyclones). The GFS and NAM-Eta also increase upper-level flow over this part of the Gulf through tonight and tomorrow, as a trough in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico deepens slightly.

Then again, who knows... Tropical forecasting is difficult, as we all know, and more freakish things have happened. Some moisture / weak convection is trying to wrap around the west side of the circulation, but I think time is running out for any strengthening to occur (note: this is a good thing that it is not strengthening!).

[Coredesat]

That dry air is really ripping up the convection this morning:

[Windtalker1]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes Looks like the center of circulation is heading toward "Perry" and also looks like storms are trying to wrap around the center once again.....Comments?

[Coredesat]

They're trying, but the convection is becoming more and more scattered (note the large area without thunderstorm activity).

[Thunder44]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=tlh&product=N0R&loop=yes Looks like the center of circulation is heading toward "Perry" and also looks like storms are trying to wrap around the center once again.....Comments?

Probably too late and too close to the coast to become a hurricane. But worth watching. I don't see it moving very much the last few hours.

[Thunder44]

8am Advisory still has this at 65mph but I'm not seeing any obs reporting sustained winds more than 30mph along the coast or gusts more than 50mph. Despite the pressure, I think this nothing more than 40 to 45mph storm at the surface and it will not become a hurricane.

[NCHurricane]

Cedar Key Coastal Obs

Florida Coastal Obs Main Page

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

[Weatherfreak14]

Well here in SC its gettin windy and starting to have some heavy rain here, got a TS warning out for here also.

[ronjon]

Looks like the storm is slowly lifting north into Appalachee Bay. What is interesting is that bands of showers are developing off the west coast from Tampa Northward. These bands are moving almost west to east. A plume of heavy convection is advancing north-northeast off the SW FL coast. Looks to be a convergence zone where the west moving storms meet the north moving storms around Tampa Bay northward. Add some afternoon heating and I don't think the heavy weather is over with yet.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

[SouthFloridawx]

is that convection starting to fire near and over the center just before landfall?

[O Town]

Just noticing that myself south. Looks to be.

[ronjon]

Looks like Alberto is getting stronger again right before landfall. More convection wrapping around the center and a plume of convection racing N-NE from the south. Good thing he's running out of real estate or we could've had a hurricane. Alberto may be getting a little boost from the near shore water temps - they increase to 83-84 deg.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well he's about to make landfall.....

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... h&loop=yes

If anyone cares...LOL