ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[jinftl]

Latest model guidance is all over the place after 60 hours....range from dissipated to a cat 2!!!

[KWT]

Yeah they really are everywhere at the moment, wouldn't like to call it at all at the moment. Still we do know we have a TD and we also know there is still a center.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161959
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 26 20090816
195230 1557N 05817W 9771 00274 0082 +240 +191 071022 023 025 000 00
195300 1559N 05817W 9770 00275 0083 +228 +193 069021 022 025 000 00
195330 1600N 05817W 9770 00276 0082 +237 +194 068023 025 023 003 03
195400 1601N 05819W 9726 00315 0082 +236 +193 062024 025 999 999 03
195430 1601N 05820W 9408 00587 0061 +217 +193 072029 030 999 999 03
195500 1601N 05822W 9044 00939 0085 +201 +191 071029 030 999 999 03
195530 1601N 05824W 8730 01258 0082 +187 +187 070029 030 999 999 03
195600 1601N 05826W 8456 01533 0085 +173 +173 070029 029 999 999 03
195630 1600N 05828W 8418 01578 0087 +175 +175 072027 028 999 999 03
195700 1559N 05828W 8432 01561 0083 +175 +174 075023 024 999 999 03
195730 1557N 05828W 8428 01564 0083 +175 +171 073021 022 999 999 03
195800 1555N 05828W 8430 01562 0083 +175 +168 070019 020 999 999 03
195830 1554N 05828W 8429 01563 0081 +178 +165 079018 018 999 999 03
195900 1552N 05828W 8428 01562 0084 +175 +162 080017 017 999 999 03
195930 1550N 05828W 8429 01564 0085 +174 +161 074016 017 020 000 03
200000 1549N 05828W 8432 01560 0088 +170 +160 080015 016 999 999 03
200030 1547N 05828W 8429 01564 0085 +173 +159 100013 014 999 999 03
200100 1545N 05828W 8426 01565 0085 +174 +158 102014 015 999 999 03
200130 1544N 05828W 8430 01562 0085 +175 +157 099015 016 012 000 03
200200 1542N 05828W 8428 01566 0087 +169 +157 091015 018 012 000 00
$$
;

Back to 850mb.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 162009
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 27 20090816
200230 1541N 05828W 8430 01562 0093 +159 +155 091010 011 018 003 00
200300 1539N 05828W 8428 01563 0088 +166 +151 103012 013 012 003 00
200330 1537N 05828W 8429 01558 0077 +180 +146 105011 012 013 000 00
200400 1536N 05828W 8426 01562 0078 +181 +143 100011 011 003 000 00
200430 1534N 05828W 8429 01561 0080 +180 +144 101010 010 005 000 00
200500 1532N 05828W 8429 01561 0081 +179 +146 107010 010 009 000 00
200530 1531N 05828W 8429 01560 0080 +180 +148 112011 011 003 000 00
200600 1529N 05828W 8428 01562 0078 +183 +150 113011 011 008 000 00
200630 1528N 05828W 8429 01562 0081 +179 +153 125007 008 008 000 00
200700 1526N 05828W 8429 01561 0083 +175 +154 124006 007 009 000 00
200730 1524N 05828W 8432 01561 0083 +176 +156 116007 008 010 000 00
200800 1523N 05828W 8428 01564 0087 +170 +156 104005 006 008 000 00
200830 1521N 05828W 8429 01563 0088 +170 +157 121006 007 007 001 00
200900 1519N 05828W 8426 01564 0086 +170 +157 126007 007 008 000 00
200930 1518N 05828W 8428 01561 0083 +175 +157 133008 009 006 000 00
201000 1516N 05828W 8429 01560 0080 +175 +159 130008 009 001 000 00
201030 1515N 05828W 8429 01561 0082 +175 +160 141007 007 000 001 00
201100 1513N 05828W 8430 01559 0082 +175 +161 150006 007 005 000 00
201130 1511N 05828W 8429 01562 0081 +177 +162 156007 007 000 001 00
201200 1510N 05828W 8429 01560 0082 +175 +163 164005 006 001 000 00
$$
;

[Gustywind]

Still in the party...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 162019
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 28 20090816
201230 1508N 05828W 8430 01561 0083 +175 +162 142003 004 005 000 00
201300 1507N 05828W 8430 01561 0085 +173 +162 141004 005 004 000 00
201330 1505N 05828W 8429 01562 0087 +170 +160 151004 005 000 001 00
201400 1503N 05828W 8425 01569 0089 +170 +158 156005 005 001 001 03
201430 1502N 05828W 8432 01563 0091 +170 +156 157004 005 000 002 03
201500 1501N 05829W 8420 01574 0090 +170 +155 109005 006 000 002 03
201530 1501N 05831W 8433 01560 0090 +168 +154 106004 005 000 003 00
201600 1501N 05832W 8429 01565 0091 +167 +153 128004 005 004 000 03
201630 1501N 05834W 8430 01563 0093 +167 +152 122004 004 000 002 00
201700 1501N 05836W 8426 01568 0091 +168 +151 130006 007 001 000 00
201730 1501N 05837W 8442 01556 0096 +166 +150 138008 009 000 001 03
201800 1502N 05838W 8428 01566 0093 +165 +149 133010 011 000 002 03
201830 1504N 05838W 8425 01566 0089 +166 +148 136008 008 002 000 00
201900 1506N 05838W 8429 01563 0091 +165 +148 129006 007 006 000 00
201930 1507N 05838W 8429 01564 0091 +166 +147 115007 008 009 000 00
202000 1509N 05838W 8429 01566 0089 +170 +147 124007 008 003 000 00
202030 1511N 05838W 8429 01562 0089 +170 +147 127007 007 002 001 00
202100 1512N 05838W 8429 01563 0087 +173 +147 126007 008 003 000 00
202130 1514N 05838W 8428 01565 0081 +182 +147 126011 012 007 000 00
202200 1516N 05838W 8429 01563 0080 +182 +147 129013 013 006 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

If the center is further south then I expected then the convection is still on the northern side. It just can't seem to keep convection over its center and hold it for more then 6hrs at a time.

Getting close to 60W now as well, shear is waiting for Ana in the central Caribbean though...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 162029
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 29 20090816
202230 1518N 05838W 8429 01562 0082 +179 +149 127013 014 004 000 00
202300 1519N 05838W 8431 01560 0083 +180 +150 126012 012 006 000 00
202330 1521N 05838W 8429 01562 0082 +180 +151 120011 012 004 001 00
202400 1523N 05838W 8429 01565 0083 +180 +152 114012 013 010 000 00
202430 1524N 05838W 8429 01563 0082 +180 +152 115011 012 012 000 03
202500 1526N 05838W 8430 01560 0078 +183 +153 114011 012 011 000 03
202530 1528N 05838W 8428 01561 0078 +181 +153 109012 012 999 999 03
202600 1529N 05838W 8430 01557 0079 +180 +154 099011 011 999 999 03
202630 1531N 05838W 8426 01564 0076 +185 +154 106012 013 999 999 03
202700 1533N 05838W 8429 01560 0075 +185 +154 119015 016 999 999 03
202730 1534N 05838W 8432 01558 0077 +183 +154 119015 016 999 999 03
202800 1536N 05838W 8429 01559 0076 +183 +154 114016 016 005 000 03
202830 1538N 05838W 8430 01559 0077 +182 +154 109015 015 011 000 03
202900 1540N 05838W 8430 01560 0082 +177 +153 112016 018 012 000 03
202930 1541N 05838W 8428 01563 0087 +168 +154 106015 016 019 000 03
203000 1543N 05838W 8429 01560 0084 +173 +152 110017 018 015 000 03
203030 1545N 05838W 8428 01562 0084 +174 +148 113018 019 017 000 03
203100 1546N 05838W 8429 01563 0083 +176 +145 111018 018 009 000 03
203130 1548N 05838W 8430 01562 0086 +173 +143 101018 019 018 000 03
203200 1550N 05838W 8427 01565 0088 +169 +142 096018 018 022 000 03
$$
;

[fd122]

Guadeloupe radar is showing some possible rain heading our way (although the amount coming seems to have decreased. We could use the rain!

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.MAARTEN...ST.
MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.MAARTEN...ST.
MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...EAST OF DOMINICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON
THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND ENTER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.1N 58.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.MAARTEN...ST.
MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 58.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 58.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.7N 62.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 66.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.8N 70.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 73.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 58.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ANA DID NOT
FIND ANY WINDS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IN FACT...ALL
OF THE STRONG WINDS WERE WELL NORTH OF THE PRESSURE MINIMUM IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO STRUGGLED TO CLOSE OFF A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR NOW
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT WILL STILL BE IN THE SYSTEM UNTIL 0000 UTC. IF
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER CANNOT BE FOUND AT THAT TIME...ADVISORIES MAY
BE DISCONTINUED.

ANA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD VERY QUICKLY...ALONG A HEADING OF
280/20. THIS QUICK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT A
LITTLE FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE QUICK INITIAL MOTION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE REACHING HISPANIOLA. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE CONTINUED...GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT
FAR BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND APPROACHING THE ISLANDS SOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 15.1N 58.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 15.7N 62.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 16.7N 66.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 17.8N 70.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.8N 73.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 21.5N 80.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Sanibel]

Bill slightly north of trop points and winding up.

Ana slightly north but not sure if there's enough of it left to matter. Waiting for models to shift N.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 162039
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 30 20090816
203230 1551N 05838W 8429 01563 0088 +169 +143 094016 016 019 000 03
203300 1553N 05838W 8432 01560 0085 +175 +140 086017 017 999 999 03
203330 1555N 05838W 8427 01565 0089 +167 +138 088018 018 999 999 03
203400 1556N 05838W 8431 01561 0090 +169 +138 082020 021 022 000 03
203430 1558N 05838W 8432 01560 0089 +170 +138 076020 021 021 000 03
203500 1559N 05838W 8429 01564 0087 +173 +139 080021 022 024 000 03
203530 1601N 05838W 8424 01572 0093 +169 +141 074023 024 999 999 03
203600 1601N 05840W 8428 01563 0091 +168 +142 062025 027 025 000 03
203630 1601N 05842W 8429 01566 0090 +170 +142 059029 030 999 999 03
203700 1601N 05844W 8429 01565 0091 +170 +141 062030 031 025 000 03
203730 1601N 05846W 8429 01566 0092 +170 +140 066029 030 026 000 00
203800 1601N 05848W 8429 01568 0093 +172 +140 066030 031 999 999 03
203830 1559N 05849W 8429 01567 0093 +170 +140 066028 029 019 000 03
203900 1558N 05848W 8429 01567 0091 +172 +142 069022 025 024 000 03
203930 1556N 05848W 8430 01564 0090 +173 +142 068019 020 021 000 03
204000 1554N 05848W 8428 01566 0088 +175 +142 066018 019 021 000 03
204030 1553N 05848W 8431 01564 0088 +174 +142 064015 017 022 000 00
204100 1551N 05848W 8432 01562 0090 +172 +143 071014 015 021 000 00
204130 1549N 05848W 8428 01565 0089 +171 +144 069015 017 012 002 00
204200 1548N 05848W 8437 01555 0095 +161 +144 052016 017 009 002 00
$$

Someone else please take over.

[cycloneye]

Ana has been downgraded to TD and is not a surprise.

[KWT]

Yep and looks like this could be the end of Ana....for the second time...and given the shear is ahead of it this may be the last time as well...though its energy could end up still having a role to play in the gulf.

[jinftl]

Actually, many folks are probably surprised it wasn't downgraded to an open wave...and be surprised tropical storm watches have been posted for parts of the Dominican Republic!

Still a 47% chance this will be a ts or stronger at Thursday 2pm, when entering the Gulf. This will largely be a function of a circulation remaining intact over land...or by avoiding alot of time over land.

Ana has been downgraded to TD and is not a surprise.

[rrm]

are there any models showing ana reforming or gaining strength once it enters the gom?

[jinftl]

Yep....

are there any models showing ana reforming or gaining strength once it enters the gom?

[KWT]

However those models are all statistical models I believe, not dynamic.

Looks like this is heading towards an early death, though we still need to keep one eye on it...

[rrm]

if ana dies out and reforms into a named storm in the gom will it be called ana or will it be given another name?

[KWT]

Depends on the LLC really and if it part of the same circulation, the way this is going though it would get renumbered I suspect. Still thats a long way off yet!