ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[thetruesms]

I concur with these two. I am much less agitated this morning with the current track and intensity forecast. I think the potential is there for a stronger Alex...but I am glad they are at least calling for a hurricane. I am also glad the models shifted south so they (the NHC) could actually feel confident enough to more the forecast to something more realistic. In my brief this a.m., I actually didn't feel the need to alter their forecast track

I wrote almost that exact same thing on a friend's facebook page this morning when he put the track up for his viewers

Cozumel web cam. What do I see in that shot,a cruise ship with a storm nearing?

http://www.cozumelinsider.com/WEBCAM

That would probably be either the Carnival Inspiration (homeport Tampa) or Carnival Elation (homeport Mobile).
And You're right, it's surprising ...

I was certainly on that webcam a week and a half ago. I think closer to now would be a bit more fun. Actually, probably not - I wouldn't have internet access to follow everything.

[flamingosun]

On second look, I think it mightg be the Inspiration.... but it's in silhoutte nnow, so can't be certain.

My contribution for the day. Back to lurking. Thank you to all for sharing your expertise.

[bahamaswx]

Good Lord! Has anyone seen the black IR explosion on the AVN!



E - N - E - R - G - Y

Can't remember seeing so much black IR since probably Wilma.

[Smurfwicked]

Quick question. Using model guidance only, and giving the proximity of Alex to Darby, wouldn't whatever pulls Darby NE have similar effects on Alex too at least temporarily?
Alex:

Darby:

[ConvergenceZone]

Why nobody wants to see this possible hurricane land anywhere, I am glad it's going to Mexico as long as it stays away from populated areas. The US just can't afford to have this storm slam into the oil rigs, which would affect every one of us and the economy...

[boca]

Alex looks like he's going to bomb right before landfall.

[cycloneye]

This cam is located north of Belize City.Is a still image but you can refresh it and see how the low clouds are moving.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cycloneye, Do you have the Best track yet? (For the 2PM EDT)

[Chacor]

It's not even 2 pm yet. Best track points are every synoptic hour (0, 6, 12, 18 UTC or 2, 8, 14, 20 hours EDT).

[Ntxwx]

Its WAY to quite in here

[cycloneye]

It has to be a glitch on the graphic,but 93L is backkkk!!

[Pedro Fernández]

Well, as I have been thinking during all the day, the center of ALEX has been moving more south than forecasted. In that way, in the last update of the 3-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center, the center of ALEX is called to make landfall more south than the previous forecast. I think it is probably ALEX will make landfall at the center of Belize's coast, more south than the last update.

[ocala]

Belize radar.

[Frank2]

Good afternoon everyone,

It seems Alex is to the left (south) of NHC's forecast track and perhaps moving a bit faster than expected:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

P.S. This is the male Alex (Alex also being a woman's name for Alexandra, etc.)...

[BigA]

Here is the link to the Belize radar

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricane Andrew]

Latest

WOW!!!

i think 55MPH for the 2PM advisory, then landfall, then 60MPH for the 5PM, then 50MPH for the 8PM.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Where do you get all these pics?

[ConvergenceZone]

Its WAY to quite in here

Hehe, well I know why. Yesterday the track of the storm was pointing more towards Texas. Today, all the guidance is saying that it's going to be a Mexico due to the strong ridge building in to the north of the storm. That's exactly the reason it's quiet.

[Pedro Fernández]

Could somebody explain to me how to read the dropsonde observations?

000
UZNT13 KNHC 261606
XXAA 76164 99250 70877 08157 99013 29234 08017 00114 28228 08519
92803 22820 09523 85538 19033 11022 70190 11045 09019 50592 05757
09510 40763 14771 24509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81548
61616 AF302 0301AALEX OB 03
62626 SPL 2502N08770W 1558 MBL WND 08018 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10511
011344 WL150 08518 078 REL 2502N08766W 154801 SPG 2502N08770W 155
803 =
XXBB 76168 99250 70877 08157 00013 29234 11943 23810 22850 19033
33761 15658 44724 13058 55701 11043 66694 10857 77658 07657 88643
07063 99602 04458 11559 00040 22526 02960 33519 03556 44470 09333
55448 11558 66440 12168 77400 14771 88379 17768 99374 18361 11360
19563 22344 23165
21212 00013 08017 11965 08019 22925 09523 33875 10018 44850 11022
55648 09014 66609 12517 77581 10010 88515 09011 99457 14003 11362
25010 22344 23517
31313 09608 81548
61616 AF302 0301AALEX OB 03
62626 SPL 2502N08770W 1558 MBL WND 08018 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10511
011344 WL150 08518 078 REL 2502N08766W 154801 SPG 2502N08770W 155
803 =
;

I don't know the code of those data. Thank you very much.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2010 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:20:11 N Lon : 86:12:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.3mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.9 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.7mb

Center Temp : -67.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF