ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I imagine you already have seen this, but check out the WV loop of Dorian?! Talk about "breaking through the cap"?? That bomb that just went off over the center is popping in some seriously crazy dry air; must be some warmer octane SST for that air to pop like it did.

Ha, I posted my note to Aric while you posted this. Yep you are right. It has enough atmospheric juice now to ingest the dry air and keep going, apparently.

Jeez, your not kidding though about the "rapid fire" posts LOL. By the time I start to respond to a post, go to the fridge, and come back....Aric has yet another tower bursting over a different quadrant of this storm

sorry.... lol

[CaneCurious]

Dorian is not giving up without a fight. Geez!

[chaser1]

Whether this pops some convection tonight or not the overall environment just ahead is nasty. 30-40kts of shear

You know, I had thought the same thing but after reading your post checked the latest GFS 200mb run from 0Z, and I can see that strong shear you are seeing anticipated to drop south to about 22/23N, but looking at the timing of things, and assuming present speed and 275 degree motion, it actually appears to me that Dorian would have pretty difluent upper air and potentially under a weak anticyclone. This of course assumes that it does not gain much latitude, and second...that it can maintain some sense of circulation identity and not open to a wave.

Convection really is firing back up, but am still sticking with my personal assumption that very very very rarely does a surface vort center actually decouple and somehow redevelop itself.

[chaser1]

Aric, I imagine you already have seen this, but check out the WV loop of Dorian?! Talk about "breaking through the cap"?? That bomb that just went off over the center is popping in some seriously crazy dry air; must be some warmer octane SST for that air to pop like it did.

Jeez, your not kidding though about the "rapid fire" posts LOL. By the time I start to respond to a post, go to the fridge, and come back....Aric has yet another tower bursting over a different quadrant of this storm

sorry.... lol[/quote]

What, you kidding?? Need the updates, & some levity. Keeps things moving and fun! Its a sport of inches!!

[boca]

Whether this pops some convection tonight or not the overall environment just ahead is nasty. 30-40kts of shear

You know, I had thought the same thing but after reading your post checked the latest GFS 200mb run from 0Z, and I can see that strong shear you are seeing anticipated to drop south to about 22/23N, but looking at the timing of things, and assuming present speed and 275 degree motion, it actually appears to me that Dorian would have pretty difluent upper air and potentially under a weak anticyclone. This of course assumes that it does not gain much latitude, and second...that it can maintain some sense of circulation identity and not open to a wave.

Convection really is firing back up, but am still sticking with my personal assumption that very very very rarely does a surface vort center actually decouple and somehow redevelop itself.

Have you ever seen it happen before?

[ozonepete]

Whether this pops some convection tonight or not the overall environment just ahead is nasty. 30-40kts of shear

You know, I had thought the same thing but after reading your post checked the latest GFS 200mb run from 0Z, and I can see that strong shear you are seeing anticipated to drop south to about 22/23N, but looking at the timing of things, and assuming present speed and 275 degree motion, it actually appears to me that Dorian would have pretty difluent upper air and potentially under a weak anticyclone. This of course assumes that it does not gain much latitude, and second...that it can maintain some sense of circulation identity and not open to a wave.

Convection really is firing back up, but am still sticking with my personal assumption that very very very rarely does a surface vort center actually decouple and somehow redevelop itself.

Ok, I would say rarely and drop the very very very. We've seen it at least once or even twice a year to the best of my memory.

[Aric Dunn]

Jeez, your not kidding though about the "rapid fire" posts LOL. By the time I start to respond to a post, go to the fridge, and come back....Aric has yet another tower bursting over a different quadrant of this storm

sorry.... lol

What, you kidding?? Need the updates, & some levity. Keeps things moving and fun! Its a sport of inches!![/quote]


guess what.. new image.. lol

convection doing well and expanding center still dead center under it all.

[ozonepete]

I have a question is because the convection is popping would that indicate that Dorian might survive longer and come back to life because of the ssts are warming

"very well could"; its a tight balancing act. One one hand you've already got the spin and regardless the dynamics that might help drive convection, maintaining any newly developing vertical column is difficult enough while being impacted by anything more than light vertical shear. Added instability (to its vertical structure that is) by any intrusion of dry air, makes it that much harder to maintain that convection and in turn maintaining its own vertical integrety. Lesson one of the variables (less upper level shear, or slower forward motion, or an moister air mass) and that helps Dorian live to see another day.

Hey there just one correction for the record here. You meant Added stability, not instability, due to dry air. Just typing too fast I guess on your way to the fridge.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[boca]

This storm is a tease live or die,don't keep us hanging

[blp]

Looking good. This will keep it going.

[chaser1]

Ever see the mid level center leave the LLC and still have the low level center regenerate?? HMMMMM

I'm trying to think back through so many years, so many 'canes..... I'll say this much; in those circumstance where you might have the mid levels sheared off perhaps by a TUTT low or perhaps your garden variety of westerly shear....I seem to remember the low level center being able to maintain an identity and to have newly firing convection. Problem here is, typically those same conditions that caused the top of the storm to be sheared off are likely remaining present. This usually appears with early or late season almost frontal-like lows moving or racing to keep up with the sheared thunderstorms forming than blowing off ahead of it.

Dorian is different though. He seems to fit those type of early/mid season low latitude Caribbean racers where the easterly trades coming from Africa, are pushing the lower level low ahead of its mid level circulation. I dont think I've seen where the LLC has purely outrun the convection and protective upper air support, and lived to tell about it.

Anyone else here care to chime in on that one??

[Aric Dunn]

take a look at the TPW talk about a increase in moisture from this morning to now especially to its west now

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling this is going to surprise many and redevelop, especially north of Puerto Rico and IMO it will be on from there especially if the SHIPS shear is correct and yes it will probably maintain or even strengthen a little bit the next 24 hrs and at most maintain at 45mph until at least 108hrs where indeed I do expect a surprise

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[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Ever see the mid level center leave the LLC and still have the low level center regenerate?? HMMMMM

I'm trying to think back through so many years, so many 'canes..... I'll say this much; in those circumstance where you might have the mid levels sheared off perhaps by a TUTT low or perhaps your garden variety of westerly shear....I seem to remember the low level center being able to maintain an identity and to have newly firing convection. Problem here is, typically those same conditions that caused the top of the storm to be sheared off are likely remaining present. This usually appears with early or late season almost frontal-like lows moving or racing to keep up with the sheared thunderstorms forming than blowing off ahead of it.

Dorian is different though. He seems to fit those type of early/mid season low latitude Caribbean racers where the easterly trades coming from Africa, are pushing the lower level low ahead of its mid level circulation. I dont think I've seen where the LLC has purely outrun the convection and protective upper air support, and lived to tell about it.

Anyone else here care to chime in on that one??

there have been many llc that have survived naked only to move into a good environment and come back.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning/evening everyone!

I decided to come on to check the latest with Dorian. It seems the system is trying its best survive. New convection is noe building again. We have to wait and see if the convection can build ans sustain itself. Personally, I thought this would have been a remnant Low at this juncture due to the dry air which just about killed Dorian yesterday. But, low and behold, Dorian isn't going out without a fight just yet.

These tiny systems are very very difficult to analyze and forecast and Dorian has certainly proven this out.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Ever see the mid level center leave the LLC and still have the low level center regenerate?? HMMMMM

I'm trying to think back through so many years, so many 'canes..... I'll say this much; in those circumstance where you might have the mid levels sheared off perhaps by a TUTT low or perhaps your garden variety of westerly shear....I seem to remember the low level center being able to maintain an identity and to have newly firing convection. Problem here is, typically those same conditions that caused the top of the storm to be sheared off are likely remaining present. This usually appears with early or late season almost frontal-like lows moving or racing to keep up with the sheared thunderstorms forming than blowing off ahead of it.

Dorian is different though. He seems to fit those type of early/mid season low latitude Caribbean racers where the easterly trades coming from Africa, are pushing the lower level low ahead of its mid level circulation. I dont think I've seen where the LLC has purely outrun the convection and protective upper air support, and lived to tell about it.

Anyone else here care to chime in on that one??

there have been many llc that have survived naked only to move into a good environment and come back.

Yeah that's what I'm saying. We see it at least once or twice a year. I don't have time right now to go get examples from our archives here but a number of times a really strong low-level naked swirl remained as the MLC was sheared off and it was declared dead on here but the LLC then moved into an area of light shear and quickly popped a lot of convection and the MLC reappeared. Just as a strong MLC can reestablish an LLC below it as shear relaxes, so can a strong LLC reestablish an MLC above it. Strong, persistent vorticity at either level will find a way up or down if the atmospheric conditions are right.

[NDG]

I place the X where I have been tracking the LLC all night long, it was very evident before being covered by the cloud canopy from the convection firing up around it.
I put it somewhere around 18N & 49W

[Aric Dunn]

I place the X where I have been tracking the LLC all night long, it was very evident before being covered by the cloud canopy from the convection firing up around it.
I put it somewhere around 18N & 49W

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/GOES044520132089HbN4n_zps34ef23b4.jpg[/mg]

thats pretty good. about where i have it.

[ozonepete]

take a look at the TPW talk about a increase in moisture from this morning to now especially to its west now

It has managed to ingest a good deal of dry air but survive it. And since it survived that one would think it can survive the very little dry air that's left.