Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

At least we still have the 12k NAM on our side lol

[Jarodm12]

Well it's over again, this is getting stupid I'm done y'all take care

[Cerlin]

Well it's over again, this is getting stupid I'm done y'all take care

It’s just one run. For all we know, the next euro run will dump 18 inches of snow in Tarrant county. It’s not set in stone until it actually happens—and while yes it’s discouraging, it’s nowhere near over.

[bubba hotep]

Well, if we miss out on the snow then at least we will have some nice warm days to look forward to...

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:
At least we still have the 12k NAM on our side lol

There is a reason we have short-term higher resolution models...this is the time frame we begin to hand off to them, particularly with low level cold air.

NAM and Euro have very similar 5H depictions, they mainly just differ on surface temps. See no reason to panic at this point!

NAM


Euro

[bubba hotep]

Well it's over again, this is getting stupid I'm done y'all take care

It’s just one run. For all we know, the next euro run will dump 18 inches of snow in Tarrant county. It’s not set in stone until it actually happens—and while yes it’s discouraging, it’s nowhere near over.

Yea, that 12z run is a pretty big departure from the 00z Euro EPS. We should at least wait until the EPS rolls out to see if this is a fundamental change in the setup or noise in the operational.

[wxman57]

Interesting panel showing expected snowfall in the 12Z Euro for you snow-lovers in the D-FW area...

[cheezyWXguy]

Man, you guys are taking this single model run as gospel even moreso than the first euro run yesterday that showed the storm. As far as I can tell, of all the factors at play to make this storm happen, it seems the only thing wrong is that the track deviated north. The storm doesn’t shear out, the air associated is sufficiently cold, there’s enough moisture, etc, but the track is further north than before. Even the trowel of snow accumulation looks the same, just removed to the north. I’d argue that this track uncertainty problem is a lot better than our concerns yesterday about storm evolution

[Cerlin]

Man, you guys are taking this single model run as gospel even moreso than the first euro run yesterday that showed the storm. As far as I can tell, of all the factors at play to make this storm happen, it seems the only thing wrong is that the track deviated north. The storm doesn’t shear out, the air associated is sufficiently cold, there’s enough moisture, etc, but the track is further north than before. Even the trowel of snow accumulation looks the same, just removed to the north. I’d argue that this track uncertainty problem is a lot better than our concerns yesterday about storm evolution

Exactly! I understand that it’s natural to get discouraged—us at DFW have had it happen multiple times where the storm just disappears—but this is so different. The difference is the track and it is just one run. As said above, all the stuff that needs to be there still is, and we’re at the point where we need to switch to the mesoscale models anyway, because they have a better handle on things. If these trends continue to happen, worrying can start, but for now everything is fine.

[bubba hotep]

Looking across the 12z models, a blend of the Euro/FV3/GFS probably still results in snow across DFW. The Euro used to have a bias of holding energy back in the SW vs the more progressive GFS but I'm not sure how true that holds anymore.

[bubba hotep]

If anyone puts any stock in the FV3, then here you go (obviously, no analysis of temp profiles was done to see what would be snow or sleet or other, this is just for fun)

[aggiecutter]

:uarrow:

Hey bubba, we’re pulling for y’all! I hope you Metroplexers get a nice snowfall out of this event although it still”feels” too early to get excited.

I’m honestly expecting, at best (or worst), a cold rain here and maybe some of my fave - freezing drizzle.

IMO, this storm will be nothing more than a dusting for NE Texas, if that. However, the city of Austin will probably be shutdown for a week because of the freezing drizzle.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big shift NW on the EPS... Also, UK Met looks almost exactly like the Euro.

[Jarodm12]

Pretty big shift NW on the EPS... Also, UK Met looks almost exactly like the Euro.

Typical let's see if the nam caves , now it's gonna be freaking too warm even in southern Oklahoma this is unbelievable

[bubba hotep]

18z 12k NAM is running followed by the Happy Hour GFS. If history teaches us anything, it's that the Happy Hour GFS will show a big hit for DFW now that the Euro has pulled the rug out from under us lol

[bubba hotep]

In other news, after this next system the 12z Euro EPS shows no cold air in North America all the way into mid-January.

[WeatherNewbie]

Pretty big shift NW on the EPS... Also, UK Met looks almost exactly like the Euro.

Typical let's see if the nam caves , now it's gonna be freaking too warm even in southern Oklahoma this is unbelievable

dude, take a xanax...

[Cerlin]

18z 12km NAM has a pretty nasty ice storm still.

[bubba hotep]

18z 12k NAM

[Longhornmaniac8]

18z 12k NAM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018123018/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

Oof, if that were to verify it would be a nightmareish ice storm for the Hill Country/Austin.