2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[xironman]

I'm going with the GFS showing a very active trough pattern over the next few weeks. I know two Canadians who live near Calgary and Yellowknife - both live in rural areas and said the cold is already making itself felt, so perhaps sign of an early Winter and per the GFS it seems the first fronts are coming south in the next few weeks. That pattern often results in a shortened tropical cyclone season.

Frank

Today is the start of meteorological fall so it is good they feel the change. I am getting sick of the heat.

[LarryWx]

Continuing further out on the 12Z EPS from what NDG just posted: suggests the CONUS, Bahamas, and Bermuda should be wary about midmonth from the wave coming off the African coast about now:

https://i.imgur.com/F2SeZ4A.png

EPS trended a bit SW from 00z but still implying a potential threat to Bermuda.

Yeah because the WAR as I assume you realize is further west on the 12Z vs the 0Z EPS. As often occurs with ensemble means due to often going back and forth, the WAR may very well go back east on the next run and reduce the threat to the CONUS and Bahamas back down to where it was. But that remains to be seen. If instead 0Z holds serve or goes even further west with the WAR, that could mean trouble for CONUS/Bahamas. (Bermuda at risk, regardless imo).

I'm a bit worried it will remain or maybe come even further west because we're in La Nina and also because the last few years due to very warm Indonesian waters have lead to a further west WAR/SE ridge/warmer SE even in El Nino. It has been relentless and has really weakened our winters.

[lovingseason2013]

If the GFS trough verifies, and that is a big if, looks like we could see some of the SSTs cool down along the northern Gulf coast with lows in the mid 50s:

https://i.postimg.cc/X7KHchxf/gfs-T2m-seus-41.png

I dont think this is going to verify. It is blazing hot and has to be warming up those upwelled waters from Marco and Laura.

[NDG]

Euro ensembles show potentially 2-3 systems at the same time over in the Atlantic basin during the peak of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/LSAtgYI.png

Besides the current two?

Yes, besides the current two.
This is when I start believing its 7-10 day range of development east of the Lesser Antilles because the SAL starts subsiding like it usually does this time of the year. There is still some forecasted to come out in between AEWs but nothing like in July-August.

[1900hurricane]

These guidance freakouts remind me of jumbo monsoon trough setups from the WPac. It just becomes so hard to model once the entire thing goes into barotropic breakdown.

[USTropics]

Chances of TC genesis has increased to nearly 90% (consensus of CMC/UKMET) in the next 5 days:


ECMWF ensembles are also starting to pickup on a few systems coming out of the deep MDR:

[SFLcane]

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.postimg.cc/wMTn8Mzj/8-D99-B039-2-B98-4-E89-AA9-A-C3-F0-F43-B10-F5.gif

The dreaded SW dive

[aspen]

The 18z GFS is slightly better with showing TC development. The 10/60 wave develops into a weak TC that becomes a hurricane in the super long range, the following wave becomes a quickly recurving hurricane, and it even shows something trying to form in the Gulf at the end of the run just like the GFS-Para.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/wMTn8Mzj/8-D99-B039-2-B98-4-E89-AA9-A-C3-F0-F43-B10-F5.gif

The dreaded SW dive

Verbatim on this ICON run it happens WAY out East but ya, noticed it.

[blp]

Is it me or is there some agreement here one run finally. Probably won't last.

12z Euro


18z GFS Para

[St0rmTh0r]

Is it me or is there some agreement here one run finally. Probably won't last.

12z Euro
https://i.ibb.co/NyxqXMP/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-11.png

18z GFS Para
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090118/gfsp_z850_vort_eatl_41.png

One thing is for sure theres about to be some insane activity in the coming weeks

[chaser1]

Is it me or is there some agreement here one run finally. Probably won't last.

12z Euro
https://i.ibb.co/NyxqXMP/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-11.png

18z GFS Para
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2020090118/gfsp_z850_vort_eatl_41.png

That's a little scary, ESPECIALLY during a year where even singular model support has been largely absent. It goes without saying that this may be a code-red in the making.

[supercane4867]

06z GFS thinks we will have Teddy by September 10

[NDG]

Big differences continue between the GFS/GFS-Para and Euro on troughiness next week.
GFS still shows quite a strong and deep trough coming down the plains into the MS river valley with strong westerly UL winds all the way down to the GOM, while the Euro show a much weaker trough digging down towards the Rockies then cutting off near the Four Corners with strong ridging remaining over the SE US.
The CMC is similar to the Euro.
I rather go with a combination of the EPS & GEFS Ensembles when it comes to a sypnotic set up in that range.

[northjaxpro]

With a solid +NAO signal being forecast up through to about mid-September, I would put my money on the EPS ensembles at this juncture.

[aspen]

Today's 00z Euro run has one hell of a wave train over the next 9 days. Nothing too strong, but then again, the Euro isn't great with intensity forecasts, and the fact that it's showing this much is impressive, given its poor track record this year.








The 06z GFS shows a similar solution as the Euro next Wednesday.

[NDG]

12z GFS says hello Fall goodbye peak of the hurricane season.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS says hello Fall goodbye peak of the hurricane season.

https://i.imgur.com/WVbTNDj.png

You beat me to it, shows 40s down to the northern Gulf coast

[NDG]

GFS says the GOM closed for tropical business next week, even into parts of the Caribbean, it will either an epic failure or a king among models. Time will tell, but it has surely been persistent on it.