ATL: IAN - Models

[chris_fit]

Someone please post 12z Euro 500mb

[chris_fit]

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro Tampa 120 hours basically the current NHC track.

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

Oh My....

[Stellar]

That looks like a direct hit on Tampa with the 12z Euro. The 500mb ridge to the east pulls away at the critical moment and opens a path NE.

[MetroMike]

Pretty much just the other side of Tampa Bay compared to 0Z run

[NDG]

12z Euro only a slight shift to the left of its earlier 06z run but way to the left of its 0z run which had it making landfall over Port Charlotte then over Orlando. So it is also trending west but not as much as the GFS.

[chris_fit]

Pretty much just the other side of Tampa Bay compared to 0Z run

Unfortunately, the 'worse' side. Would rather have a storm go S of me than north - Surge.

Good thing is, still a ways away, things will change.

[jdray]

That looks like a direct hit on Tampa with the 12z Euro. The 500mb ridge to the east pulls away at the critical moment and opens a path NE.

This would be a pretty bad path, Tampa to Jacksonville would get pummeled pretty badly.

[shah83]

Remember, lots less time than one might think with this run. Weather will be bad well before the storm gets there, might even be early surge with the NNE movement.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro did shift North just north of Tampa.

TVCN will almost certainly shift West again and in turn the NHC track.

New TVCN comes in about 30 min.

[chris_fit]

[jfk08c]

12Z Euro did shift North just north of Tampa.

TVCN will almost certainly shift West again and in turn the NHC track.

New TVCN comes in about 30 min.

I'm not sure the NHC will change the track much, they've got pretty much every model run considered in the 5 day cone. And considering the Euro is one of the only runs showing a west coast Florida landfall, that shouldn't affect the mean too much but we shall see

[ronjon]

Let's see if we see any movement in the ECM ensembles.

[Nimbus]

This 12Z Euro the 1034 blocking high is still centered over Toronto at 120 hours makes it into NY at 144 hours.
So just a delayed upper air pattern compared to the more westward tracking models.

The slightly more southern initialization should have relatively advanced the upper air pattern at landfall IMHO so will come back and look at tonights run.

[Beachside]

https://i.imgur.com/L1EsUZ5.png

Looking at that very last position in that graphic- It looks to me like the "degree of curvature" is lessening and the last "bubble" has a more northward component than you would expect if it followed the same curve as the previous 4 or 5 "bubbles"

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro Def trending W after it kisses Tampa though.... I think that's a big change

[gatorcane]

JMA like the Euro also. So it is the Euro/UKMET/JMA vs the GFS/HWRF/CMC:

[Stormcenter]

Who’s keeping score in reference to the East vs.
West track? Seriously I personally have never been
sold on a Florida peninsula landfall. We shall see.