2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

Most recent CMC basically shows an Ian-like storm happening next week. From the same disturbance advertised in the WCAR for the past few days or so

[Weathertracker96]

Most recent CMC basically shows an Ian-like storm happening next week. From the same disturbance advertised in the WCAR for the past few days or so

As of now, what do you think is causing the models to be off on track. I know its early but most models seem way west of the GFS. Is GFS picking up on a new setup in your view?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS ensembles are active:

[TomballEd]

The 12Z GFS ensembles are active:

https://i.postimg.cc/PxqtxNQH/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh138-240.gif

Support in 0Z EPS and GEPS as well. Some hurricanes in all 3 ensemble suites, although nothing Ian like. Shear on GEFS ensemble looks favorable for storms in the Caribbean/E MDR but quite hostile in the Gulf. New Canadian is interesting.

Further out, while EUro weekly ACE is well below this week, it then rises to near normal for the period and above normal for the period the first two weeks of October. TC probabilities show highest chances are offshore, although there are periods of 5 to 10% TS probs near the East Coast and Gulf at times. CFS precip anomalies suggest that October could be active in the Caribbean and E. Gulf.

[SFLcane]

Ok then...

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok then...

https://i.postimg.cc/gcMx3Qrc/mmm.png

Would be quite something if this becomes the I storm

[jlauderdal]

Ok then...

That looks impressive to my untrained, limited experienced eyes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AI-based EURO has been very consistent on a TC in the Caribbean heading to Florida. Absolutely nailed Debby and Francine, too.

[SFLcane]

Ok then...

https://i.postimg.cc/gcMx3Qrc/mmm.png

That looks impressive to my untrained, limited experienced eyes.

About a Cat 2 there surely something to watch cmc and Ai have been rather consistent with something heading northward. GEFS/GEPS/signal remains strong

[SFLcane]

[Jr0d]

Most recent CMC basically shows an Ian-like storm happening next week. From the same disturbance advertised in the WCAR for the past few days or so

I saw that. Certainly not feel great, especially with Helene likely going to the 95L, leaving the "I" name and this makes particularly more dangerous for some non scientific reason.

For once, I am hoping the GFS verifies or we get an I storm pop before next weekend so where else in the Atlantic Basin and getting a "J' name instead.

Obviously location bias is playing a role for my concern that this could be bad for me and Key West and my family especially my 96 year old grandmom in the St. Pete/Clearwater area...

[SFLcane]

12z eps..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z EC-AIFS model sticking to its guns with a TC developing in the Caribbean and heading into Florida.

Taking this model very seriously due to its past validations this season.

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

We havent seen this consitency at this range in a long time, could be consistently wrong.

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/QdHsDfrf/IMG-9410.gif

We havent seen this consitency at this range in a long time, could be consistently wrong.

Well its not alone the GEFS also shows something similar. very much intrigued!

[Teban54]

In addition to the Caribbean system, GEFS also shows hints of activity in the eastern MDR.

While GFS has shown similar signals for earlier waves occasionally and then backed out of such ideas, I don't recall the earlier signals being as intense (edit: I meant in terms of number of formations, not intensity) as this. On the other hand, the tracks you see on this map come from two different waves, one leaving Africa on 9/23 and another on 9/26. Neither are depicted as very strong systems here, but I'm not sure if it's because of unfavorable conditions or them recurving too early.

[Teban54]

[chaser1]

Florida colonoscopy vibes

[mantis83]

cmc has several runs in a row of a hurricane moving up from the caribbean affecting the west coast of florida.....

[caneman]

When is the origination area supposed to start taking place. How long until we see it on the map?