Global model runs discussion

[GCANE]

12Z CMC has it riding the coast

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[CourierPR]

GCANE, you mean coast of South America, right?

[GCANE]

GCANE, you mean coast of South America, right?

Yes, South America.

Should have been explicit.

12Z Euro is digging a deep low on the east CONUS at 240 Hrs, by the time this is forecast to be in the mid Carib.

[Steve H.]

I know, this will be the super storm we are waiting on. A triple phasing monster that pulls moisture from a tropical storm into a low pressure system dropping through the Southern Mississippi valley and bombing off the SE US coast, riding up the coast to the Canadien maritimes. But seriously, this tropical wave in the Atlantic that is being picked up by some of the models could slip through the Caribbean and hook around Jamaica in the 10-day period. Something to watch for. Cane season ain't over yet

[GCANE]

I know, this will be the super storm we are waiting on. A triple phasing monster that pulls moisture from a tropical storm into a low pressure system dropping through the Southern Mississippi valley and bombing off the SE US coast, riding up the coast to the Canadien maritimes. But seriously, this tropical wave in the Atlantic that is being picked up by some of the models could slip through the Caribbean and hook around Jamaica in the 10-day period. Something to watch for. Cane season ain't over yet

I am worried about Haiti.

[gatorcane]

Huge trough looks like it plunges into the gom and se united states by day 10. Both the gfs and ecmwf show this. That would usher in 30s all the way down to the northern gulf coast.

No threat to the united states if that pattern holds. That front may put an end to any more threats to the united states as the gulf is really going to cool down after this front.

Chances are increasing the united states may not get hit by a single hurricane this season.

[CourierPR]

Huge trough looks like it plunges into the gom and se united states by day 10. Both the gfs and ecmwf show this. That would usher in 30s all the way down to the northern gulf coast.

No threat to the united states if that pattern holds. That front may put an end to any more threats to the united states as the gulf is really going to cool down after this front.

Chances are increasing the united states may not get hit by a single hurricane this season.

This potential system would be in the Caribbean, not the Gulf.

[CourierPR]

Huge trough looks like it plunges into the gom and se united states by day 10. Both the gfs and ecmwf show this. That would usher in 30s all the way down to the northern gulf coast.

No threat to the united states if that pattern holds. That front may put an end to any more threats to the united states as the gulf is really going to cool down after this front.

Chances are increasing the united states may not get hit by a single hurricane this season.

The final line of your post is a given considering we are nearing the end of the season.

[Macrocane]

The latest model runs shows that strong trough picking really fast the system not giving it much time to strengthen in the Caribbean, it's still too early to know with certainty how strong the low/trough off the East Coast of US will be, if it is weaker the system may have more time to strengthen.

[GCANE]

10/26 OOZ FIS 200 Hrs Out

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro leaves the system behind in the Caribbean

[blp]

Thanks for providing this model. I had never heard of it before. I have attached below a link I found that give more information.

http://fim.noaa.gov/fimdocu_rb.pdf

10/26 OOZ FIS 200 Hrs Out

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z gfs is quite meager. Easterly shear and proximity to South America seems to cause some issues; ironically, too much ridging may be the problem this time.

[GCANE]

Thanks for providing this model. I had never heard of it before. I have attached below a link I found that give more information.

http://fim.noaa.gov/fimdocu_rb.pdf

10/26 OOZ FIS 200 Hrs Out

First I heard of it too.

Will be interesting to see if it pans out as a good long-term forecaster.

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z Canadian does very little with the nice wave. This is terrible news for tc-lovers that such a tc-happy model does so little with this system.

[CourierPR]

The 12Z gfs is quite meager. Easterly shear and proximity to South America seems to cause some issues; ironically, too much ridging may be the problem this time.

Pressures are forecast to lower next week in the Caribbean. Any developing system will be able to tap plenty of moisture.


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[dwsqos2]

When I say ridge, I am referring to the upper levels. On the gfs there is a closed 1248 dm contour for a period of time next week, and the wave appears to be on the south side of this. This would expose the wave to some fairly stiff easterlies.

The Euro is blah through 168. The bad news continues.

[Weatherfreak000]

The 12Z Canadian does very little with the nice wave. This is terrible news for tc-lovers that such a tc-happy model does so little with this system.

And your NOT a TC lover...is that what your trying to say?

The Euro is blah through 168. The bad news continues.

You've been setting it up like this all season...and it always turns out the way you said it wouldnt for some off reason keep it up though, I wanna see more storms! Just for fun I looked up the models after reading this and I will tell you what I saw...


CMC develops Shary in 30 hours. At 42 hours it sees a low near 60W, both areas become both Shary and Tomas.

GFS shows two interesting areas that the CMC sees but develops neither. It is hard to say whether or not that will or will not verify, but it does indeed see a low setting up at the end of the run in the South Carib.

Nogaps is completely nada.

HWRF is consistent in seeing a low west of 90L developing, alongside CMC.

GFDL sees the same low but keeps it weak, BUT it develops 90L


My point here is there is a whole bunch of evidence we will see TCs dwsqos2. I am not so sure what you are talking about...

[gatorcane]

The trough by day 10 is a mega trough. Digs all the way down into the western Caribbean. Looks like yet again, a trough will arrive just in time to spare the u.s...from a hit.

[GCANE]

Area around 40W looking pretty interesting this morning.

Convection even firing north of 10N.