ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[lebron23]

Per 18z models NHC likely to shift track more right next advisory

[Ivanhater]

Gaining some latitude for the time being

[maxx9512]

best I can tell I have to say it looks to be more nw than wnw. Been wrong before though. Most of the weathr is on the north and eastern side correct? Maybe temporary or stairsteping. Is that what anybody else sees? I guess it would surely change the weather the mainland gets. Biggest effect would be rainfall since I don't see winds increasing much. ?On the swfla coast tv mets calling for possible 2 to 4 inches of rain. That would have to change, anyone have idea how much rain possible?

[lebron23]

Per 18z models NHC likely to shift track more right next advisory

Who cares.. It's still going TEXAS from what I hear!!! OMG!!

Newest TVCN line near New Orleans, NHC follows that closely

[latitude_20]

Well that figures - work gets busy and I get pulled away and come back to TD 3. Classic!

[StormClouds63]

What do the shear charts forecast for this weekend in the central and western GOM?

[lebron23]

in my unofficial opinion i think the NHC will shift track over morgan city, la

[thetruesms]

Well that figures - work gets busy and I get pulled away and come back to TD 3. Classic!

Along those lines, something is bound to happen tonight, I have a softball game. The last two games I've had, something interesting has happened while I was playing, so I figure the trend is likely to continue

[Nimbus]

That upper level low has been swinging around and the center axis is diving WSW now.
Either TD3 needs to speed up or that ULL needs to slow down if we want the dry shear to continue inhibiting development.

Historically too many systems have experienced rapid intensification over those warm waters off SE Florida to be comfortable with the current setup.

[Tireman4]

Wxman57 from another channel:

Not much time to post. Based on the strength of the ridge to its north, I think I'll go fill up a few 5-gal gas cans for my generators when I get home today.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Well that figures - work gets busy and I get pulled away and come back to TD 3. Classic!

Along those lines, something is bound to happen tonight, I have a softball game. The last two games I've had, something interesting has happened while I was playing, so I figure the trend is likely to continue

well in that case play ball all night so the track can shift farther north please lol!!!!!!!!!

[StormClouds63]

KFDM:

Look forward to seeing your new graphics and weather software this evening. Looks like you may have another Bonnie to track.

[Tireman4]

Well that figures - work gets busy and I get pulled away and come back to TD 3. Classic!

Along those lines, something is bound to happen tonight, I have a softball game. The last two games I've had, something interesting has happened while I was playing, so I figure the trend is likely to continue

well in that case play ball all night so the track can shift farther north please lol!!!!!!!!!

So, you want this system?

[Stormcenter]

I'm starting to buy into the SE TX and SW LA. scenario.

Per 18z models NHC likely to shift track more right next advisory

Who cares.. It's still going TEXAS from what I hear!!! OMG!!

Newest TVCN line near New Orleans, NHC follows that closely

[tolakram]

[Roxy]

I'm trusting my KFDM meteorologists and Air Force Met with this system. Watch out SETX/SWLA!!!

Same here, neither of them have ever led me wrong.

[StormTracker]

Ok so, if the recon shows the center at a more northerly position & there is a weakness or erosion of the high at landfall time, and the storm finds that weakness, technically this storm could end up about where Andrew came onshore! Does that make any sense?

[mvtrucking]

[/quote]


well in that case play ball all night so the track can shift farther north please lol!!!!!!!!! [/quote]

So, you want this system?[/quote]

I wouldn't wish no power and long lines on anybody, as hot as this summer has been. Believe me, you don't want it.

[Bocadude85]

Its starting to look like TD3 will miss its next forecast point to the north

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[ocala]

After looking at a 7 hour vis loop it sure looks like it's 315-320 as opposed to 295.
Am I just seeing things?