ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Ikester]

Come on peeps, please quit comparing this storm to Ike. The set up is totally different now than it was in September 2008. For Ike, the ridge was centered just north of Florida and was weakening. The trough that picked Ike up came in from the Dakotas. The setup now is a persistent trough over the eastern Conus between the ridge to the west over Texas and the Bermuda high. This is not a Texas threat IMO. Notice on the maps below, the highs and lows are reversed.

September 11th, 2008:



Today:

[stormhunter7]

like the above image... i actually flew on mission 32 that day with AFRecon into Ike!

[jeff]

Amazing consensus this far out.

Whats up with the TVCN? shows a NE movement in the latter part of the forecast.. thats new.. also seems to be west of the NHC

18Z GFS track is bending toward the NE across GA and the Carolinas some the weight of that tugs the consensus in that direction toward the end of the runs.

[jeff]

Amazing consensus this far out.

Whats up with the TVCN? shows a NE movement in the latter part of the forecast.. thats new.. also seems to be west of the NHC

18Z GFS track is bending toward the NE across GA and the Carolinas some the weight of that tugs the consensus in that direction toward the end of the runs.

[storm4u]

I know the nam is a crappy tropical model but it is exactly the same as 18z threw 54 so far

[Blown Away]

00z dynamic models

[Jevo]

0z NAM +84

[Duddy]

0z NAM +84

That's pretty far east. Probably a Carolina hit on this run?

[BigB0882]

Does the GFS get going in the next 30 minutes or not for another hour and a half? I can never keep up when all of these run.

[Jevo]

0z NAM +84

That's pretty far east. Probably a Carolina hit on this run?

Yeah, but it is the NAM, a numerical model.. Take it with a grain of salt, I just think it's good to post everything we have access to, not just the big 2. It helps us get the full picture.. Who knows, one of em might surprise us one day

[SouthFLTropics]

Does the GFS get going in the next 30 minutes or not for another hour and a half? I can never keep up when all of these run.

Starts at 11:30PM EDT

[BigB0882]

Thank you. I think I can stay up for that. My eyes are getting awfully heavy.

[Duddy]

Does the GFS get going in the next 30 minutes or not for another hour and a half? I can never keep up when all of these run.

Starts at 11:30PM EDT

My link to the models doesn't work. Can you spare one?

I have been using this http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

[SouthFLTropics]

Does the GFS get going in the next 30 minutes or not for another hour and a half? I can never keep up when all of these run.

Starts at 11:30PM EDT

My link to the models doesn't work. Can you spare one?

I have been using this http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

Try here...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zgfs.html

[Jevo]

Does the GFS get going in the next 30 minutes or not for another hour and a half? I can never keep up when all of these run.

It gets going now.

0z GFS Initialized



0z GFS +12

[Jevo]

0z GFS +24



0z GFS +36

[SouthFLTropics]

Seems to be a change to the North through 42 hours on this run of the GFS...

SFT

[ROCK]

more colorful map.....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal042.gif

[Jevo]

0z GFS +48



0z GFS +60

[ROCK]

if it does that then you can kiss any LLC goodbye....for awhile anyway...